2010-004 CLIMATES CLASSIFICATION OF PAKISTAN
Saifullah Khan 1, Prof.Dr Mahmood-ul-hasan 2, Late Dr Anjum Bari 3, Late Prof Dr Fazil Karim Khan 4
1 Manager GIS and Mapping USF Co 5th Floor HBL Tower Blue Area Islamabad, Pakistan
2 Chairman Department of Geography Univesrity of Peshawar NWFP, Pakistan
3 Ex Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad Pakistan, Pakistan
4 Ex Chairman Department of Geography Univeristy of Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract:
The work deals with the climates of Pakistan. It is based on the study and analysis of the data regarding temperature, rainfall, number of rainy days, humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, evapotranspiration, sunshine, and also with the classification of climates. The factors bringing variation in the climates of Pakistan are latitudinal location, proximity to sea level, rough topography, continentitlity, marine influence in the extreme south, vegetation cover, and soil contents. On the basis of temperature, Pakistan has been classified into five regions i.e. hot, warm, mild, cool, and cold. The southern parts of Pakistan have high temperature (28oC at Hyderabad) that decreases toward north upto 10oC at Astore. Four rainfall regions have been identified i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid. The rainfall concentration decreases from 171.4cm (68.6inches) at Murree in the north to 3.4cm (1.5inches) at Nokkundi in the south. The eastern part of Pakistan receives heavy rains during summer, from southwesterly currents, called monsoon, whereas the western parts have high rains in winter, from southwesterly winds, called western disturbances. The extreme north of the country has heavy rains from local thunderstorms caused by convectional uplifting of air parcel due to local heating. Pakistan experiences four rainy seasons i.e. winter rainfall, pre-monsoon rainfall, monsoon rainfall, and post monsoon rainfall. The winter and monsoon are the moistest seasons, while the other two constitutes as the driest seasons of the country. The highest annual number of rainy days is 91.3 at Murree in the north, while it decreases to 4 at Nokkundi in the south. The relative humidity of Pakistan is above 70% at Makran coast and less than 40% in southwestern Balochistan, and in the extreme north, while the rest of Pakistan has 40% to 70percent. The lower latitudes of the country along with coastal belt have a recorded wind speed of above 6knots, while it decreases to 2knots in the northern mountainous region. The lower Indus plain and southwestern Balochistan records low pressure in summer, while a ridge of high pressure develops over Himalayas in winter. The Makran coast and parts of Balochistan and Sindh have sunshine duration above 8hr/day, which reduces to 7hr/day toward northern mountainous region. Most of the plain has evapotranspiration above 3mm (0.12inches), while it decreases to 2mm (0.08inches) in highland.  Due to its sub-tropical location, Pakistan has two main seasons i.e. summer and winter. The summer season of the country lasts for seven months in plain and for four months in highland, while the winter season varies for five months in plain and seven months in highland. These two main seasons of Pakistan are further sub-divided into four sub-seasons i.e. cold, hot, monsoon, and warm. The cold season varies from mid-November to mid-April, hot season from mid-April to June, and monsoon season from July to mid-September and warm season from mid-September to mid-November. On the basis of distribution and variation of weather elements, Pakistan can be divided into five macro-regions, which are further sub-divided into 18 meso and 46 micro climatic types. 

2010-025 CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND/OR HUMAN IMPACT !?
Prof. Ognjen Bonacci
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Split University, Croatia

Abstract:
IPCC establishes the increase of approximately 0.8±0.1 şC in the average global temperature near Earth's surface since 1900, and strongly connects it with anthropogenic influences of "greenhouse gasses". American Geophysical Union considers that the complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict some aspects of human induced climate change. Climate change has become widely synonymous with that of global warming. This is paradoxically, construed in a very negative way as inevitably catastrophic in whole planet. For the detailed and unbiased analysis of this great planetary problem one of the obstacle is that the science of climate change is inextricably mixed up with politics and media. In this paper some long lasting hydrological and climatological time series are used in order to explain differences between the concepts of climate changes and climate variability. Second goal of the paper is explanation of interconnections between natural (geophysical) and human impacts on variability observed in these long lasting time series. Definite conclusions are that impacts of climate change are very uncertain, and that human interventions can influence hydrological and climatological changes on restricted (local or regional) regions.

Key words: climate changes, climate variability, anthropogenic influence

2010-036 VOLGA-CASPIAN WATER ECOSYSTEMS STABILITY UNDER THE POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL FLUCTUATION
Natalia Mitina 1, Boris Malashenkow 1
1 Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Abstract:
According to the data of WMO during the nearest several decades in the region of the Caspian sea watershed area various scenarios predict the rising of annual air temperature by 2 to 4° C. As the result of the anticipated climate warming the volume of the annual water flow of the Volga will increase by 15-20%, but during the year this volume will not be equal within months. During the spring flooding caused by snow melting, the volume of flow will be 40% higher than today and during the summer rain floods the volume of flow will decrease by 20% to the modern state. These processes will influence the water ecosystems, but in each region they will have their own features.   In the region of the Upper Volga increase of the flow due to snow melting and temperature increase together with increasing precipitation and changes in the snow melting processes may cause serious inundations. Inundations will widen the zones of under-flooding that may cause the ground water table increase and accordingly to additional widening of swamp massive. The water from the shallow floodplain territories flow into the deep channel part of the reservoir and provoke the oxygen deficit which results in massive fish kill. Researches in some regions showed that together with the water temperature increase the increase of the ammonium level and nitrogen of ammonia take place on one hand and decrease of the level of dissolved oxygen, especially during the dry and warm period of the year, on the other hand. In the region of the Lower Volga the anticipated temperature increase and the surface flow during summer decrease will cause the increased demand for water in the irrigated areas, which suffer from the drought now. Climate change effect will lead to additional increase of water consumption. Changes in the level of inner waters may influence the regime of navigation and endanger the fisheries, the terms of sprawing of existing species will change and more heat-loving species may intrude.

Key words: climate change,  Volga-Caspian water ecosystem
2010-038 VARIOUS CALCULATION INDEXES FOR EVAPORABILITY FOR REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA'S TERRITORY
Maria Nedealcov 1, Tatiana Constantinov 1, Ilie Mangul 1, Rodica Cojocari 1, Olga Crivova 1
1 Institute of Ecology and Geography,  Moldovian Academy Science, Republic of Moldova


Abstract:
On the basis of measurements from 14 meteorological stations and using different interpolation methods we calculated evaporability. At the same time have been drawn maps showing the spatial variation of evaporability on the territory of the Republic of Moldova.

Key words: evaporability, spatial interpolation

2010-048 DETECTING TRENDS IN DRINI RIVER BASIN
Miriam Bogdani Ndini
Institute for Energy, Water and Environment, University of Polytechnics, Tirana, Albania 

Abstract:
The present study aims to analyze the river flow of Drini River, situated in northern Albania, using the data from this watershed. The objective of the study is to investigate whether there is any support for increases in river floods in observational data. Flood trend studies tend to focus in the annual maximum flood series, which means that in years with many high flows only one flood event per year will be selected, and in years with no large flows at all, a relatively low flow will be selected. In the present study it is used a Peak-Over- Threshold approach (POT), selecting all floods above a certain threshold that occur in an entire flow record, provided that the floods extracted can be regarded as independent. This means that in one particular year several floods may be recorded, whereas in another year no floods may be recorded. Thus the use of POT series also allows an estimate of the trend in the frequency of floods, rather just their magnitude, by calculating the number of POTs that occur each year and investigating the trend in this series. The data to be use are these of maximum monthly river flow in Drini river basin and are selected to be free of human influence ( as much as it is possible).  The method used to estimate whether there is a significant positive or negative trend in flood magnitude and frequency is the linear regression. By this method a regression line fits to the series and the slope describes whether the trend is strong or not. The null hypothesis is that the slope of the line is zero.  However, the linear regression method requires the assumption of normal distribution and is very sensitive to outliers in the data, by ranking the observation and applying the non-parametric Mann â€" Kendall test, a more robust measure of trend is obtained.

Key words: flood, water regime, peak over treshold

 
2010-049 THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA: THE LAKE CHAD, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
Babagana Abubakar 1, Mustapha Muhammed Idris 1
1 Kanuri Development Association, Nigeria

Abstract:
The "Lake Chad"ť is one of the world's largest and most historical Lake located in the Sahel region of Africa (lat. 12:30 N to 14:30 N and long. 13:00E to 15:30 E ) which is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change bordering North-Eastern Nigeria, North-Western Cameroon, South-Eastern Niger and South Western Chad republics. The lake was  25,000 km square  in the 1940s as indicated by the historians and some geo- archaeological and historical evidences, the recent of which was the accidental discovery of an ancient Canoe dating back to over three thousand years (3000) located in about Six hundred kilometers (600) away from the present day bank of the Lake in the Nigerian Territory, in the year 1992 by a peasant farmer from the Kanuri inhabited desert areas of Damaturu-Nigeria, while digging a well in quest of water for his domestic activities as reported by Abubakar, B. (IJNA 37.2,2008), but due to the continues incessant  impacts of climate change in Africa which resulted in the incessant drying of rivers especially those feeder rivers supplying over 90 % of the Lake water like the River Shari in the republic of Cameroon and the river Yobe in Nigeria has resulted those community living along the courses or banks of the feeder rivers to be blocking the rivers from supplying the water in to the Lake while trying to adapt to this climate change situation by building Dams along these feeder rivers in quest of water for their irrigational activities as well as other activities like the generation of Hydro electric city and other relevant activities. This situation has resulted in the reduction of the water of the Lake to just 1800 km square and presently the Lake is at (lat. 12:50 N to 13:00 N and long. 14:50 to 15:00 E). Hence this situation has already started causing problems to the indigenous communities living around and depending on the Lake for their survival, because there is increasing drop in fishing activities in the lake as well as  reduction in water supply for pastoral and irrigation farming activities in addition to other secondary impacts like the increasing rate of rural-urban migration, job loses  and desert encroachments due to the growing numbers of people running into the fire wood selling businesses which depends on the deforestation of the shrubs and the little scattered  trees serving as a shelter belt between the Sahara desert located in the north of the Sahel region and the fertile Lands. It was in view of the above, I came up with the under listed suggestions/recommendations:
    1. Since the geology of the Lake Chad basin is indicating that the basin is holding one of the world's largest reserves of underground water, The United Nations in collaboration with the governments of the member countries of the  "Lake Chad Commissionť" should jointly source for fund and invest in redeveloping the Chad basin area, through modern irrigation agriculture water project like the one commission in Libya in the early 1990's.
    2. The River Congo in the Democratic Republic of Congo presently flowing in to the Atlantic Ocean and which was geographically thought to be among the ancient or earlier major feeder rivers of the Lake in the past, should be diverted to be flowing in to the Lake again.
    3. The governments of the member countries of the Lake Chad Commission in collaboration with the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of the West African State (ECOWAS) should encourage and attract foreign investment into the Lake Chad area to help revive the Lake.
    4. The Lake Chad research institutes should be properly funded.
    5. Non-agricultural investments should be encouraged in order to avoid the growing pressure on fishing on the already drying lake.
    6. Lake Chad University should be established by all or any of the stakeholders in order to provide jobs, promote research and education for the children of the inhabitants.
    7. Since oil prospectors are already discovering new oil fields within the Lake Chad Region as in the case of the Lake Chad basin areas of the republics of Chad and Niger, the Lake Chad commission should ensure the employment of the inhabitants of this area is given an upper priority in this new emergent petroleum industries in order to reduce pressure and over dependence on this Lake.
    8. The United Nations Environmental Program and relevant stakeholders on water issues should assist in their capacities and technical know-how in preventing the pollution of the lake from the newly emergent petroleum industries within the Lake Chad basin.
    9. The indigenous communities should be mainstream into the decision Making processes in reviving the lake as well as fighting climate change.
    10. Expert on climate change should be organizing series of educative Conferences, seminars, workshops and training on climate change and adaptation.

I believe that if the above-mentioned suggestions /recommendations are adopted and implemented it will help protect the Lake Chad from completely drying up in one hand and save the lives of millions of people and animals depending on the Lake for their survival which is facing the impacts of climate change.  

Key words: Water, Climate, Vulnerability, Africa, Kanuri
2010-050 METEOROLOGICAL EXTREME EVENTS AND THEIR EVALUATION BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
Liri Mucaj 1, Vangjel Mustaqi 1, Eglantina Bruci 2
1 Institute for Energy, Water and Environment, Albania
2 Climate Change Program/UNIT, UNDP Tirana, Albania  


Abstract:
Extreme meteorological events are present in the downstream of Drini River. Regarding to the climate change scenario for Albania which leads to an increase of these extreme meteorological elements, review existing information is evaluated.  Trend of occurrence of meteorological hazardous for the time horizons 2025, 2050, and 2100 are evaluated based on climate change scenario for Albania.  Taking into account the increase of temperature, suggested from scenario, a decrease of number of frozen day <-5°C will occur. (Less than one day/year).An increase of about 10 day/year with the temperature >35°C by 2100 time horizons is expecting.  Another extreme event is droughts. They have dramatically increased in the number and intensity in some parts of Balkan Region. Also an increase of the consecutive number of no rainy days is expected. Thus, the SPI index for Albania is calculated in the frame of the project Drought Management Centre for Southeaster Europe (DMCSEE) financed by European Union through South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme.
The impact of the meteorological hazardous in some of the key economic sectors is estimated too.
 
Key words: extreme meteorological elements (heavy rain, extreme temperature, drought, strong wind,), climate change scenario, impact in some of the key economic sectors
 
2010-051 TREND ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENCE
Mustafa Ozkaya 1, Yucel Kaya 1, Esref Batur 1, Mustafa Saban 1
1 General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration, Turkey

 

Abstract:
Trend analysis of time series of annual maximum sow depth, time series of sow water equivalence of annual maximum sow depth and time series of annual maximum snow water equivalence were carried out at 17 snow measurement stations located in Yukari Kizilirmak, Seyhan, Firat ve Dicle-Zap catchments. Elevation of stations are changing between 1300-2400 m. Observation periods of stations are changing from 1966 to 2008 year. Mann-Kendall trend method are used for trend analysis. As a results of his study, it has been determined that there was no change at all stations for long term (1966-2008) period except at two station (18-K01 and 18-K03).
Downward trend for station no:18-K01 and upward trend for station no:18-K03 is determined.


Key words: Maximum Snow Depth, Water Equivalence of Maximum Snow Depth, Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Method

2010-054 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ALBANIA: METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF OHRID BASIN
Hysen Mankolli
Department of Agro-Environment and Ecology,Agricultural University of Tirana, Albania


Abstract:
Albania is a small country, there are important climatic differences, (Mankolli H., 2007), which are result of the very broken country’s relief. Four climatic zones: Lowland-Mediterranean Zone, Hilly-Mediterranean Zone, Pre-mountain-Mediterranean Zone and Mountain-Mediterranean Zone. Typical Mediterranean climate characterizes the lowlands and the plains. The mountainous area has in principle typical continental climate with a slight Mediterranean influence. But there is a significant difference between the North and the South. In the South the summers are drier and the differences between summer and winter temperatures are not as big as in the North. The data climatic for same year’s period where minimal and maximal temperature and precipitation on micro zone in territorial areas Ohrid_Pogradec, Albania, take on study, we have value from coefficients of Q with small limits boundary. The index Q from applied method Emberger is 102.9. Eco zone in the mountainous and lake ecosystem of Ohrid_Pogradec classification on bioclimatic model, with humidity, with value (Q) over 90.  The data climatic for same year’s period where minimal and maximal temperature and precipitation on micro zone in territorial areas Ohrid_Pogradec, Albania, take on study, we have value from coefficients Ic, It, Io: the index Ic from applied method Rivas Martine’s is 11.13, the index It from applied method Rivas Martine’s is 371.3 and  the index Io from applied method Rivas Martines is 4.6.

Key words: climatic index, meteorological data, climate change, ohrid basin

 

2010-072 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WHEAT CROP PRODUCTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY OF ETHIOPIA
Tadesse Kenea 1, Girma Mamo 2
1 Arba Minch University, Ethiopia
2 Ethiopian Agriculture Research Institute, Ethiopia

Abstract:
Effects of Climate Variability on Wheat Crop Productivity over the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia Tadesse Tujuba1, Girma Mamo2 1Arba Minch University, Ethiopia 2Ethiopian Agriculture Research Institute The assessment of climate variability, its effect and predictability would have enormous advantage for countries like Ethiopia whose economy is highly dependent on agriculture. It was with strong background that this research was conducted to contribute to climate risk management in Ethiopian agriculture development dynamics with particular reference to wheat production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Climate data, yield data and different oceanic indices were obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia and the website of NOAA/Climate Prediction Center respectively. Spatial and temporal rainfall variability was assessed in terms of some agriculturally important patterns like the time of onset/end date, length of growing period and dry spells. Accordingly, the time of rainfall onset date and length of growing periods are highly variable, making the decisions related to when and which cultivar to plant more critical. The correlation analyses between seasonal rainfall of Kulumsa area and global ocean indices show both Atlantic and Indian Oceans. SSTs dictate seasonal rainfall of the area in addition to ENSO. Forecasting of June-September (JJAS) season using SSTs and SOI as predictors is also possible with reasonable skill at the area. The stepwise multiple linear regression method was used to develop the forecasting model. On the other hand, the March-April-May (MAM) season rainfall of the area is highly variable, and hence SSTs alone could not have a deep explanatory power. The assessment on whether ENSO phases have effect on seasonal rainfall amount and crop yield using composite analysis shows El Nińo increases the MAM season rainfall and decreases the JJAS season rainfall and crop productivity. It is also characterized by late rainfall onset, early end date and shorter growing period. La Nińa decreases MAM season rainfall and crop productivity, and increases the JJAS season wetness. In addition, the analyses done using REF-ET software show crop water requirement is highly variable from year to year and within the growing season. May-June is the best planting time as far as crop water requirement is concerned. The stepwise multiple linear regressions used shows that wheat crop productivity could be predicted before harvest with certain skill at Kulumsa. Therefore, user tailored seasonal climate information is very critical for wheat production at the area. Above all, sub seasonal climate variability, probability of extreme events and other underlying causes of climate variability related to atmospheric conditions like jets and waves should be assessed in future works.

Key words: Seasonal, Rainfall, Wheat, ENSO

 
2010-101 CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE ON RIVER RUN-OFF AND HYDRO POWER DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
Bredo Erichsen 1, Tom Andersen 2, Bjorn Wold 2
1 Statkraft Albania, Albania
2 Statkraft, Norway

Abstract:
The Norwegian energy company Statkraft has launched activities in South East Europe with the aim of defining feasible projects for developing the water power resources in the region. Until now the first project is approved by the government of Albania. Designing and operation of hydro power plants (HPP) has many challenging aspects. During the design phase optimization of the installed capacity must be in accordance with the inflow. During the operational phase the production has to be optimized from the forecasted input of water resources to the system and from the predicted electricity demand in the marked. The main commodity to a hydro power plant is always the inflow. Recent climate change studies have shown that the rainfall in South Eastern Europe (SEE) is likely to decrease in the future while the temperature will increase. In this paper we want to present the preliminary results of the work we have done to study the effects of climatic changes on the runoff in some selected rivers in SEE, and to discuss the consequences this effect will have on energy production in the region. In order to calculate the effects on runoff we have applied a hydrological model (HBV) using precipitation, temperature and climate scenarios as input, and the output from the model simulations is time series of runoff and evapotranspiration. We will also discuss briefly how a possible reduced inflow may influence on the hydro power production and the price of electricity in the region. The project is collaboration between Statkraft, hydro-meteorological institutions in SEE and research institutes in Norway.

Key words: Hydrology, climate change, hydro power

2010-104 THE ROLE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER PROJECTS IN CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF RAVI BASIN IN CHAMBA DISTRICT OF HIMACHAL PRADESH INDIA
Mohinder Kumar
Government Post Graduate College Chamba, India

Abstract:
Dams have had serious impacts on the lives, livelihoods, cultures and spiritual existence of indigenous, tribal and illiterate people, moreover on the physical environmental conditions and on the biodiversity of the area concerned. The dam related developmental activities in Ravi catchment area have been threatening the biodiversity in the whole catchment. There are more than 50 rivulets in the Ravi catchment and on which more than 70 power projects have been planned by the government by putting biodiversity at the stake. All these have unintentionally produce weather and climate modifications on a larger scale and threaten the existing biodiversity. Such developmental activities have been started day back in 1980s in Ravi basin with the installation of Baira Suil Power Project and today it has covered all most all Ravi basin starting from interstate broader of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh and engulfed the green cover of the area. Because of this extinction the catchments area is experiencing drastic climatic changes, because of 100 km reservoirs of Shahpur Kandi (125MW), Thein Dam (600MW), Chamera-I (540MW) and Chamera-II (300 MW) and tunnelization of Ravi in 19.38 kms with a dia of 7 to 9 meters and dry Ravi in almost all its natural route (27 kilometers in Chamera I & II). In this dry region there is a tremendous increase in the temperature and there is no timely and usual rain in the basin after the installation of power projects. The present paper is based on original micro field research conducted by the researcher, has been carried out in the in the lower Himalayan Region by using exploratory and descriptive method. To analyse the impacts on climatic conditions, the viewpoints of respondents have been supported with the data provided by metrological department and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK.

Key words: Dams, Human intervention, Climate change, Hydroelectric power projects

2010-119 BUREDEN OF DRINKING WATER AS FUNCTION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Vladimir Kendrovski 1, Dragan Gjorgjev 1
Institute for Publuc Health of the R.Macedonia

Abstract:
Climate change has a complex connection with health. This includes direct influences like illnesses and conditions that may end with deadly outcome and are connected with the changes in temperature; health impacts of extreme weather events (floods, droughts and storms); and the effects of air pollution. Other ways of impacts like those on disease distribution related to drinking water, food or vector-translated and zoonoses, or health conditions resulting from lack of food and water, follow indirect ways. The most widely impacts of climate change on drinking water resources in the Republic of Macedonia concern availability of water supply as reduced in-stream flows, decreasing snow pack, earlier and more intense snowmelt and runoff, and reduced aquifer recharge which can be manifest with increased risk of drinking water pollution by arsenic in south part of the country. Drinking water and food- translated diseases could be affected by climate changes. Floods, droughts and storms bring in their wake increased health risks, such as diarrhoea among children. Possible increasing risk for surface water sources for drinking water can be result as more widespread and persistent algal blooms, changes in watershed vegetation, and increasing water temperature with associated increases in eitrophication, disinfectant demand and re-growth potential-Berovo, Bitola, Strumica, etc. Lots of influences of climate change including health effects, could be diminished or avoided with different adaptabilities. Important mechanisms for disease prevention originating from water and food are traceability, microbiological risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. The high priority adaptation measures are proposed in the following domains: Irrigation and water supply of population, floods and droughts, erosion and sedimentation, drinking water resources management; water quality and monitoring.

Key words: Climate Change, Health, Risk, Drinking Water, Adaptation

2010-120 A FRAMEWORK FOR INCLUDING THE IMPACTS OF A CHANGING CLIMATE ON FUTURE WATER SECURITY
Mark Summerton
Umgeni Water, South Africa

 

Abstract:
Umgeni Water, the second largest bulk water utility in South Africa, is responsible for supplying bulk potable water to some 6 million people at high levels of assurance. The demand for water is increasing rapidly as the utility increases its customer base, and at the same time addresses the water requirements of the millennium development goals. To maintain this level of service, timeous decision making regarding future water resources and infrastructure requirements is of paramount importance. To facilitate this, a framework that incorporates a changing climate has been developed to provide plausible scenarios of water resources and water supply in the future. The framework is presented, and as a proof of concept, a model configuration and results from the Mgeni catchment in South Africa are discussed. Results include potential impacts on a) water resources, b) water yield and assurance of supply, c) future water requirements, and on c) proposed future capital expenditure programmes. The framework includes contemporary hydrologic, climate and water yield models, and can be adapted and installed to other locations with relative ease.


Key words:  Climate Change, Water Resources Management and Planning, sustainable economic development, ACRU Agro-hydrological model, adaptation, Water Resources Yield, Risk, Assurance of Supply, Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu-Natal.

2010-121 A GENERAL OUTLOOK TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE OF NORTHERN CYPRUS
Gozen Elkiran
European University of Lefke, Guzelyurt, Turkey

Abstract:
Northern Cyprus (NC) for being an island has suffering from variety of climate conditions all around the country. NC is divided to six meteorological regions. Observation records showing great variety for each region. The first record was done in 1975 and each station has at least five gauge stations. In winter seasons, the rainfall records reveal maximum at Southern Coast as of 457 mm/year and minimum at Central Mesaoria as of 295 mm/year. The average annual rainfall is measured as 373 mm /year in the country. The temperature, which is having great effect in the water budget of the country, in summer times have an average of 30 oC and 15 oC for winter times, averagely. The pan A observations for evaporation reveals 12mm/month which falls to 80 % of the rainfall over the regions. In this research, the climate change in NC; rainfall, temperature, moisture content and evaporation values, will be searched using statistical methods, regional and district basis whenever possible.

Key words: Northern Cyprus, climate change, rainfall, statistical methods

 

2010-127 SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE FACTORS IN AVERAGE AND EXTREME YEARS
Vladimir Konovalov
Institute of geography, Moscow, Russia

Abstract:
Mapped spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation amounts and average air temperature are obtained for the research areas in years with normal and extreme values of glaciers runoff as well as total river runoff. To achieve this we used anomalies of precipitation amount for October-April and anomalies of average air temperature for June-September during 1961-1990, at 93 meteorological stations located along the intervals: latitude 30.20° - 44.08°N, longitude 67.20° - 82.98°E, and altitude of 122 – 4 169 meters above sea level. According to this information for each point-element (i.e. meteorological station with proper data) were calculated statistical probabilities by means of sample volume equaled to 30 years and received averages and standard deviations for each year. In characteristic years were revealed significant differences for spatial distribution of runoff climate factors. It was found out that the spatial distribution of the total amount of glaciers melting is the most variable in years with average water yield, as compared to the extreme years. This peculiarity is very beneficial for hydropower and agriculture because provide additional and natural ability to stabilize water balance of reservoirs. A piecewise multi-linear equations were obtained also to calculate the statistical probability of glaciers total melting in low and high flow years as a function of geographical coordinates and the average altitude of firn boundary. Statistics of climate factors of glaciers runoff, including integral and differential distribution and spatial correlation functions, provide a much more informative impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of glaciation, compared to the empirical estimates of averages values alone.
This presentation was supported by RFBR Project 08-05-00661

Key words: climate factors of runoff, spatial distribution, extreme years

2010-131 GENERAL PATTERN OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE IN THE SAVA RIVER BASIN
Dragoslav Isailovic 1, Stevan Prohaska 1, Brankica Majkic 1
1 Institute for Water resources development „Jaroslav Cerni", Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract:
Most important components of hydrologic balance within river basin are precipitation - Pb, runoff - Q (often represented by net precipitation - Pn), and evapo-transpiration - Et. Precipitation and runoff are commonly measured with satisfying accuracy. However, evapo-transpiration is difficult and expensive to measure, and frequently is estimated by various mathematical models or simply as difference Pb - Et. Mechanisms that govern the considered processes and their relationships upon each other are very complex for they depend on the climate, topography, geology, vegetation etc. Many of these factors, except for within-the-year fluctuations, are stable or slightly variable over long time periods. This feature offers an opportunity to assess a general pattern of the balance components within the catchment. This paper describes a mathematical model that relates components of hydrologic balance to the total precipitation - Pb, observed at a considerable number of gauging stations. Available data collected over the Sava River catchment support a reasonable assumption that a relation between average annual values of Pb and Pn can be linearised. From that, a linear relationship between Et and Pb, as well as a hyperbolic dependence between runoff coefficient - φ and Pb, can be obtained. The model cannot replace analyses of hydrological data regularly collected over considered catchment. Yet, it can give a general insight into spatial distribution of the considered processes. Also, it can be used as a tool for a rough assessment of water resources on un-gauged catchments or for a quick overall check-up of calculations based on the observed data.

Key words: Precipitation, runoff,evapo-transpiration, runoff coefficient

2010-138 RAINFALL, FERTILIZATION, SOC CHANGES IN A LONG TERM FIELD EXPERIMENT
Laszlo Marton
Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary

Abstract:
Seasonal changes of SOC’s mechanisms of arable soils are essential in understanding and mitigating global climate change. The objectives of this study were to determine of rainfall and fertilizatio impacts on SOC’s changes in a long-term field experiment on a Haplic Luvisol using popular rotation crops in a fragile agro-ecological environment at Nyírlugos city (Nyírség region; N: 470 41’ 60’’ and E: 220 2’ 80’’) in Hungary from 1962 to 2002 for 40 years. During 40 experimental yr seasonal correlations (R2) amongst SOC (mg kg-1) and precipitation (mm) in winter half year’s (WHY’s), and in summer half year’s (SHY’s) ranged from WHY’s R2 = 0.4401 to 0.8934, and from SHY’s R2 = 0.3343 to 0.9078 in a significancy at P<0.001. NPKCaMg fertilization impact on SOC (mg kg-1) and precipitation (mm) correlations were significantly (P<0.001) at a mean of R2 = 0.4691 in the WHY, R2 = 0.6171 in the SHY, and R2 = 0.6582 over the 40 yr. However, organic carbon stores (mg kg-1) in soils decreased linearly by increasing precipitation between 322 mm yr-1 and 727 mm yr-1.

Key words:  Precipitation, fertilization, SOC

2010-146 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE UPPER BASIN OF OKPARA IN BENIN (WEST AFRICA)
Ogouwale Romaric
Laboratoire de Climatologie, Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Benin


Abstract:
This survey aims at evaluating climate change impacts on water resources availability in high basin of Okpara. It focuses on the water resources vulnerability as regards to climate modifications observed in the basin. The modifications are characterized with climate indicators' variability. To identify currunt signs of climate change data of normal (1941-1970) and (1971-2000) are analysed and compared. The heap of rain days, the rainfall average have been used to determine gaps between the two considered normal. Data obtained at different scales have been reported in relative values. As for temperatures, warming up indicators are based on the calculation of gaps (°c) between the considered normals (1941-1970 and 1971-2000). Besides, by taking into account the climate indicators' evolution on the set of reference 1961-1990, their future evolution has been estimated. The comparative analysis of rain data, rainfall between normals 1971-2000 and 1941-1970, shows an overall decrease between 16 and 28 % in the high basin of Okpara. In this same period of time, temperatures have increased of 1°C overall in the basin. This situation has led into a deterioration of water resources in the basin, which has resulted into a decrease of the Okpara River's flow. Indeed, the analysis of hydrolic regime on the set 1965-2000, shows on owerall tendency to the decrease in order of 20 to 25 % during months such as July, August, September and October, which consequently of water resources in the basin. By 2050, on the basis of projections and scenarios, temperatures will increase between 1,5 and 2°C in the basin in relation to the decrease of the rainfall would be strod between 11 and 30 %. As for flows, on the same horizon, 2050, this decrease will pass at 30 % in 2010, then 40 % in 2050. If this situation does not reverse, one would attend a reduction of the water availability in the basin. In this context, the reduction of superficial water resources will disturbs the ecological and socio-economic systemes of this basin already vulnerable because of current climate contexts.

 

Key words: Climate change, water, vulnerability, upper basin of Okpara, Benin

 

2010-159 MEAN MONTHLY SNOW COVER DEPTH TRENDS IN EAST ANATOLIA REGION OF TURKEY
Resat Acar 1, Serkan Senocak 1, Selim Sengul 1
1 Ataturk University Engineering Faculty Dept. of Civil Engineering, Turkey


Abstract:
This study investigates possible Mean Monthly Snow Cover Depth (MMSCD) trends at 13 meteorological stations (5 cities and 8 town) in East Anatolia Region of Turkey, spanning a period of November to April for approximately 27 years. Homogeneity in time series are tested by using a method developed by Swed- Eisenhart. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test is used to demonstrate any existence of possible MMSCD trends. The results show that there are 64 series don't indicate trend of MMSCD. However, 6 stations have positive trend, 2 stations have negative trend. It is tried to examine the linear relationship but coefficients of correlation are too low, so there is no linear relationship in time series that have trends. These changes could be associated with regional climate changes and global warming phenomena.


Key words: Mean Monthly Snow Cover Depth, Trend Analysis, Mann Kendall Test, East Anatolia Region

2010-166 TREND ANALYSIS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN TURKEY CLIMATE REGIONS
Hakan Aksu 1, Savay  Kuscu 2, Osman Simsek 2
1 State Hydraulic Works, Ankara, Turkey
2 State Meteorology Service, Turkey


Abstract:
Due to its possible effects, climate change has been a significant topic of research in recent years. Trend analysis is a basic tool to understand variations in time. The purpose of this study is to investigate the trends in hydrometeorological parameters for five different climate regions of Turkey. Long term annual mean temperature, precipitation, pan evaporation data and actual evapotranspiration estimations derived by Turc Formula has been used to determine trends. The data has been analyzed by run test (swed-eisenhart) for homogenity of time series and implemented mann-kendall non-parametric trend test. The results will show the temporal and spatial distribution of trends for hydrometeorologic parameters and will give an idea about water potential change in time.

Key words: trend analysis, mann-kendall test

2010-170 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES BASED ON REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS
Jan Kysely 1, Ladislav Gaal 1, Romana Beranova 1, Eva Plavcova 1
1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic

Abstract:
Future scenarios of high quantiles of precipitation amounts are examined in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the 21st century, carried out within the European projects PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES. Differences between winter and summer seasons, and the dependence of results on the driving GCM and emission scenario are examined. We apply the region-of-influence method as a pooling scheme in the estimation procedure, which takes into account data from a ‘region’ (set of gridboxes) when fitting the extreme value distribution in any single gridbox. ‘Homogeneity’ of the regions, i.e. the condition that one may assume that the distributions of extremes are identical apart from a gridbox-specific scaling factor, is tested by a built-in regional homogeneity test. Climate change scenarios for the early-21st century (2020-2049) and late-21st century (2070-2099) time slices over central Europe show that precipitation extremes are likely to increase in severity in winter and, with less agreement among models, also in summer. The inter-model and intra-model variability and related uncertainties in the pattern and magnitude of the change are large but the scenarios tend to agree with the precipitation trends recently observed in the area, which may support their credibility. In most scenario runs, the projected change in extreme precipitation in summer is of the opposite sign than a change in mean seasonal totals; a combination of enhanced heavy precipitation amounts and reduced water infiltration capabilities of a dry soil may severely increase peak river discharges and flood-related risks. The application of the pooling scheme in the frequency analysis efficiently reduces (random) variations in the estimates of parameters of the extreme value distributions in individual gridboxes that result from large spatial variability of heavy precipitation, and represents a useful and straightforward tool for ‘weighting’ data from neighbouring gridboxes within the estimation procedure.

Key words: precipitation extremes, climate change, regional climate models

2010-172 CLIMATE CHANGE & WATER RESOURCES:RISK & RISK MANAGEMENT - GUYANA
Kailas Narayan
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology, Barbados, West Indies

Abstract:
Sea level rise resulting from climate change can be severe on coastal rivers & aquifers on continental coastal areas & small islands. Guyana is on the north eastern coast of South America, most of the population of which resides on a narrow coastal strip bordering the Atlantic Ocean, & below high tide level of the ocean. Water supply for domestic, agriculture & industrial uses are obtained from a combination of ground & surface water sources. In this paper an attempt is made to analyse situations that can arise as a result of sea level rise. A specific sea level rise of one meter by the end of the century & the impacts of this rise is investigated. The results indicate that the consequences for the surface water resources can be severe, but not as severe for the ground water resources.

Key words: sea level rise, surface water, ground water

2010-183 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF AN ALPINE CATCHMENT, ASSESSED FROM AN ENSEMBLE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
Christian Dobler
University of Innsbruck, Department of Geography, Austria

Abstract:
The Alps are the source of many major rivers in Europe. Possible changes in runoff of Alpine watersheds are of great importance also for the surrounding lowlands. The objective of the present investigation is to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Lech Valley (1,000 km˛), situated in the northern parts of the Alps. An ensemble of 9 climate projections provided by the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES has been used to simulate future climate. In order to overcome the gap between RCMs and the hydrological model, the delta change approach was chosen. An observed 30-year time series (1971–2000) of precipitation and temperature was perturbed according to mean monthly changes between the RCM runs. The hydrological simulations were employed with the semi-distributed model HQsim in an off-line mode. Both the calibration and validation of HQsim indicate that the model simulates runoff well in a complex topography like the Alps. The results show considerable increases in monthly temperatures and significant accompanying changes in the seasonal rainfall patterns, including an increase in the rainfall from November to May and a decrease in the rainfall from June to August. The resulting effects to the runoff indicate large seasonal varying changes. A decrease in monthly runoff during summer and increases in winter minimize the inter-annual disparities between low runoff in winter and high runoff in spring and summer. An analysis of monthly peak flows shows substantial changes in the magnitude of winter and summer floods. Due to these changes, water management will face new challenges in future. In comparison to existing studies, the use of an ensemble of different GCM-RCM combinations in this research allows to assess uncertainties in the climate projections. The overall agreement on climate runs provides high confidence in the simulations.

Key words: Climate change, Hydrology, Uncertainty, Stream flow

2010-186 IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE REGIME OF PRECIPITATIONS IN SOUTH BULGARIA
Kalinka Kouzmova
Agricultural university-Plovdiv, Bulgaria

 

Abstract:
Recent years have seen a very large concern among the scientific community on the problem of global warming and climate changes. Increased the extremes of climate as a record droughts and floods, which losses worldwide are estimated at hundreds of millions dollars and thousands of lives. Many forecasts of scientists suggest that the Planet will be warming and one of the most affected areas will be Southern Europe, including Bulgaria. It was conducted investigation in one of the most intensive agricultural region in Bulgaria - Tracia lowland, in order to establish the changes of precipitation regime during the last 70 years. It was used the main meteorological information for the last 70 years. Meteorological data were processed with conventional methods in climatology and agroclimatology (Gulinova, 1974; Kelchevskaja, 1975). There were established changes in rainfall regime during the vegetation period in the direction of drought; changes in agroclimatological resources and conditions for growing major in country and Tracian region agricultural crops. Require a change in technology for growing crops with a global trends.

 

Key words: global warming, climate change, precipitation regime, agroclimatic resources,agriculture, yield, optimal conditions

2010-192 LONG-PERIODICAL VARIATIONS OF EARTH ROTATION, DETERMINED FROM RECONSTRUCTED MILLENNIAL-SCALE GLACIAL SEA LEVEL
Yavor Chapanov 1, Daniel Gambis 2
1 Central Laboratory for Geodesy - BAS, Bulgaria
2 Paris Observatory,France
 

Abstract:
The variations of the Earth rotation in time are caused by the gravitational influence of Moon, Sun and planets, displacements of matter on the Earth surface, inside the Earth liquid core and core-mantle boundary. An important part of Earth rotation excitation is the influence of the Mean Sea Level (MSL) changes, due to polar ice sheets variations, followed by changes of the axial momentum of inertia. Significant polar ice variations occur during the last glacial-deglacial cycles. Recently the glacial sea level variations have been reconstructed for the last 380Kyr by Siddall et al. (2003). These data are used to determine the long-periodical variations of Universal Time UT1 and Length of Day (LOD). The long-periodical components of MSL and Earth rotation are determined by means of spectral analysis, Fourier approximation based on the Least-Squares estimation of trigonometrically coefficients and autoregressive time series analysis (ARIST) of the unknown frequencies. The estimated periodicities of MSL and UT1 variations are compared with the variations of Earth precession and Earth orbit parameters. The results will expand our knowledge about the global Earth processes and mutual influences between long-term climatic variations, hydrological cycles, Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and Earth orbit at millennial time scale.

Key words: mean sea level, glacial cycles, Universal Time UT1, Length of Day LOD

2010-193 A MODEL OF GLOBAL WATER REDISTRIBUTION DURING SOLAR CYCLES, DERIVED BY ASTRONOMICAL DATA
Yavor Chapanov 1, Daniel Gambis 2
1 Central Laboratory for Geodesy - BAS, Bulgaria
2 Paris Observatory, France
 

Abstract:
The global hydrologic cycles are widely affected by climatic variations, which are mostly driven by solar-terrestrial influences. The existing hydrological time series describe in details the global water redistribution over the continents and oceans, but we have not enough information about the decadal ice changes over the polar caps. A model of global water redistribution is created by means of the Earth rotation data for the period 1623-2005, reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) data since 1610, sunspot data since 1749 and Mean Sea Level (MSL) data from various maregraph stations since 1774. The used method includes determination of the Universal time UT1 response to 11-year sunspot cycles and separation between the solar signals in Earth rotation and the Earth core signals; determination of the necessary change of the Earth angular momentum, corresponding to the observed mean amplitude of 11-year UT1 cycles, due to the solar activity; estimation of the mean amplitude of 11-year MSL cycles, determined from maregraph data and determination of the necessary water redistribution between the oceans and polar ice, corresponding to the observed 11-year UT1 cycles. This approach yields an estimation of the redistribution of the evaporated ocean water over the continents and polar ice, due to the 11-year sunspot cycles and corresponding TSI variations, as well as global water redistribution, due to the 22-year magnetic solar cycles and 45-year equatorial solar asymmetry cycles. The calculated time series of polar ice thickness oscillations and continental water storage variations with periods 11, 22 and 45 years will improve our knowledge about the hydrological cycles and will help long-term hydrological prediction.


Key words: Universal Time Ut1, solar activity, sunspots, total solar irradiance, mean sea level, decadal icethickness variations, global water redistribution

 
2010-204 "YIELD – WATER" RELATIONSHIP OF SOYBEAN
Aleksandar Matev
Agricultural Universit,Bulgaria

Abstract:
The aim of this study is an establishment of reliability of two formulas for calculate the relation „Yield – water" of soybean (Biser var.), grown in region of Plovdiv (Bulgaria). The experimental work has been carry out for 5 years (2003 – 2007). Data for relative yield and relative irrigation depth, by different irrigation regime (0, 30, 50, 70 and 100 % of irrigation rate) have been used. These data have been calculated through special computer program "YIELD". The curves which we have got, interpret exactly the experimental data (R = 0.90 and over). Yield coefficient without irrigation is average 0.54. The experimental data are able to use for management of irrigation of soybean.


Key words: soybean, irrigation, yield, water deficit

2010-198 CORRELATION BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND SAVA RIVER DISCHARGE IN ZAGREB
Anita Filipcic
Faculty of Science - Department of Geography, Croatia

 

Abstract:
We are witnessing an increasing importance of contemporary climate changes. This paper deals with correlation between ammount of precipitation and Sava River discharge in Zagreb. Ljubljana is the representative meteorological station for Sava River discharge investigation in Zagreb . Due to prominent variability of the process the emphasis is on establishing linear trends. In order to reduce the negative characteristics of shifting arithmetic means, only three-year shifting arithmetic means are shown. The increase of annual precipitation amount in Ljubljana leads to increased Sava discharge in Zagreb. Correlation between precipitation and discharge is linear, therefore we have linear correlation. Calculated correlation coefficient is 0.81. Sava river discharge in Zagreb has been recorded since 1926, but due to the break between 1996 and 1998, the existing data from the following few years after the break were not used. There has been a downward trend of Sava discharge in Zagreb since 1926. However, there is a distinct difference between the older period (1926-1959) and the recent one (1960-1995). In the older period there is a big variability of Sava discharge. Three-year shifting arithmetic means also prove it. The recent period is characterized by a decrease of difference in mean annual Sava discharge. Distinct trend in discharge decrease is also very important. Linear trend shows that „linear" annual discharge between 1960 and 1995 decreased by 118.85 m3s-1. That is undoubtedly alarming information.


Key words: precipitation, discharge, Sava River, Zagreb, climate

 
2010-245 VULNERABILITY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Sofija Nikolova 1, Anton Causevski 1
1 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technologies, Skopje, Macedonia

Abstract:
Due to concerns regarding global warming and air pollution there has been an international movement in the promotion of renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation. The energy production from RES greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change. This paper analyze the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production for the case of windpower and hydropower production. A model of off-grid hybrid power system with renewable energy sources will be presented, as well as the investigation of the potential impacts of wind speed changes and water flow changes, due to the climate change, on production of wind power and hydro power. For that purpose several scenarios will be analyzed. For each scenario production of RES, renewable fraction, emissions of pollutants and total net present costs of the system will be estimated. In order to determine the configuration of the system which will meet consumption demands, the software tool of HOMER- product of National Renewable Energy Laboratory is planned to be apply. The input data for the software are: load inputs, resource inputs (wind speeds, water flows, diesel price), component costs and characteristics, emissions penalties, project lifetime and annual real interest rate, and the outgoing is the optimal solution of the system respecting the net present costs aspect.

Key words: Renewable energy sources, vulnerability, energy production, microgrid, Net Present Costs

2010-202 INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC CHANGES  ON CHARACTERISTICS OF SNOW-MELT FLOOD OF THE RIVERS OF PRYPYAT'S BASIN WITHIN THE LIMITS OF UKRAINE
Ievgeniia Vasylenko 1, Vasyl Grebin 2
1 Ukrainian Research Hydro-meteorological institute, Kyiv, Ukraine
2 Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University, Geographical faculty, Ukraine

Abstract:
Global changes of atmospheric circulation, which took place during the last decades on considerable territory of Europe, influenced on the terms of forming of the hydrometeorological phenomena, in particular maximal flow on the rivers of Prypyat's basin within the limits of Ukraine. For the normal functioning of objects of the economic setting within the limits of this territory is exceptionally important knowledge about the changes of basic characteristics of snow-melt flood (as a main phase of intrayearly division of flow) of, which occurred under the influence of climate changes.
According to results of our previous researches, beginning of period of modern changes of the hydrological regime of the rivers of Ukraine and Prypyat, in particular, can be attributed to 1989.
Consequently, research of characteristics of snow-melt flood of the rivers of basin was made by us for two representative periods: 1) from the beginning of observation (the post-war period) for 1988 inclusive; 2) from 1989 to 2007.
Were analyzed changes of such characteristics of snow-melt flood, as the date of its beginning and end, the volume of runoff , maximum specific discharges, runoff of spring snow-melt flood as a percentage of annual runoff and duration of snow-melt flood on rivers of right-bank part of Prypyat's basin.
According to results of researches of characteristics of snow-melt flood were built comparative histograms for two selected periods. Were built digital maps of changes of the characteristics of snow-melt flood for specific periods.
Was detected change of basic hydrological characteristics of snow-melt flood on the rivers of Ukrainian part of Prypyat's basin for the last 20 years.
Noted a significant decreasing of  maximum specific discharges, volumes of runoff for a snow-melt flood during the last twenty years, for some hydrological observing stations even in two times. Nowadays  there is smaller percentage of the annual runoff (29 %) on the period of snow-melt flood, than it was to 1989 year (39%). Dates of start and end of snow-melt flood  in the modern period have shifted to earlier  terms. For the  duration of snow-melt flood, ( the average on a basin) this value has increased since 1989.
This kind of changes of basic characteristics of snow-melt flood of the rivers of Prypyat's basin can be attributed to intensive growth temperatures of air in winter - spring period, diminishing the depth of soil freezing  and value of water equivalent of snow during the last decades of XX century and at the beginning of XXI century.

Keywords: snow-melt flood, annual runoff, the volume of runoff , maximum specific discharges, duration.

2010-210 ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN BULGARIA
Ekaterina Koleva
National Institute of meteorology and hydrology, Bulgaria

Abstract:
A long-term air temperature fluctuation in Bulgaria is examined. The seasonal and annual mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures are used to study these fluctuations. In analysis the emphasis are on the existence of trends and periodicity in the time series. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is calculated, too. DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase. Number of days with maximum temperature above given threshold and their variations are studied. The warmest decade in Bulgaria is determined. The distribution of temperature in this period is compared with this one in 1961-1990 reference period recommended by WMO as representing present climate. The extreme indices are analyzed, too. The obtained result could be used as an analogue for future. To estimate the change and its significant character some statistical methods ate used.
2010-257 RECENT RESULTS OF HYDROLOGICAL MONITORING IN THE CATCHMENT OF KARST SPRINGS ON THE PLANINA POLJE (SW SLOVENIA)
Metka Petric
Karst Research Institute, Postojna, Slovenia

Abstract:
Several karst springs are located at the southern border of the Planina karst polje in south-western Slovenia. The most important are the Unica (Qmin=0.04 m3/s, Qavg=13.5 m3/s, Qmax=70 m3/s) and Malenščica (Qmin=1.1 m3/s, Qavg=6.7 m3/s, Qmax=11.2 m3/s) springs. Unica flows from the 6.6 km long Planina Cave, and Malenščica is its right tributary. Their catchments are interlacing, for both interchange between surface and underground flows is characteristic. The catchment can be divided into three separate but hydrologically connected parts. The central part is the karst massif of Javorniki and Snežnik. It borders at the western side on the valley of the Pivka river and its tributaries, and on the eastern and northern side on a string of karst poljes (the biggest among them is the Cerknica polje), which are distributed gradually in the SE-NW direction. In the first of these three contribution areas the underground flow is dominant, and in the other two surface streams are present also. They are mainly recharged by karst waters, and after a certain distance of surface flow they sink again underground. In order to study the relations between these contribution areas, which are changing according to hydrological conditions, a monitoring net was installed within the catchment in 2007. Three rain-gauges were set in the three contribution areas. The sondes for measuring of water level (occasional parallel measurements of discharge enabled the assessment of discharge curves), temperature and electrical conductivity were installed at 2 karst springs and 5 water streams within their catchment. Based on the interpretation and comparison of obtained data for 2 hydrological years, the influences of different types of recharge, exchanges between surface and underground waters, relations between the inflows from various parts of the catchment and their contributions to the discharges of springs were assessed.

Key words: karst hydrology, discharge, electrical conductivity, temperature, Planina polje, Slovenia

2010-307 BIOCLIMATIC VARIABILITY
N. Patrice Maximilien Boko 1, Christophe S.Houssou 1, Expedit W. Vissin 1, Euloge Ogouwale 1, Michel Boko 1
1 LACEEDE, Benin


Abstract:
The present research relates to the study of the global variability of the bioclimatology in Benin. The impact of the global warming on the human bodies during these two decades last ones worries more and more the international community. But all the available data is global data. Consequently, the indications of comfort and discomfort due to the reheating in the scale regional and local are not exactly determined. Now it is important to have precise data for effective decision-making. The analysis of the series of the temperatures and the humidity on the synoptic stations by means of the statistical methods and the tests of analyze bioclimatic thus allowed to have a rough idea of the indications of comfort in Benin. The results revealed that the temperatures are everywhere for the increase and that this increase of temperature influences the bioclimatic atmospheres indicating a general discomfort on the whole country.


Key words: Benin, warming, tendency, bioclimatic atmosphere
2010-309 SEASONAL CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION AND RIVER DISCHARGES IN CROATIAN PART OF DRAVA RIVER BASIN
Mladen Maradin 1, Ivan Canjevac 1
1 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Geography, Croatia

Abstract:
This paper analyses long term trends of seasonal precipitation and discharges and their statistical relationship in Croatian part of Drava river basin. Researched area has continental type of the annual course of precipitation - precipitation maximum is in Summer and minimum in Winter. Discharge regime of Drava in Croatia is mainly combined nival-glacial, with maximum in warm half-year (June). Influence of precipitation at Varaždin, Koprivnica and Donji Miholjac meteorological stations on discharge values for Drava-Donji Miholjac hydrological station is analysed using 50-year data series (1958-2007). Decadal values of precipitation and discharge amounts are calculated for each season in order to detect possible similarities. Linear trends show decrease of average amount precipitation in Spring and Winter, and increase in Autumn. Influence of these seasonal changes on Drava-Donji Miholjac discharge regime is studied. Furthermore, long term trends and correlation coefficients are calculated in order to identify whether the changes in precipitation amount cause adequate changes in discharge regime. Although analyses of yearly values of precipitation and discharge show moderate connections, there are significant differences in correlation for each season. Highest values of correlation are calculated for Spring, and lowest for Winter.

Key words: precipitation, river discharge, climate change, Drava
2010-310 SIMULATIONS OF LOW, MODERATE AND HEAVY DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE TERRITORY OF BULGARIA
Plamen Neytchev 1, Walter Zucchini 2, Stefan Sperlich 2, Neyko Neykov 3, Hristo Hristov 3
1 Nat. Inst. of Meteorology & Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,  Bulgaria,
2 University of Goettingen Germany,
3 Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Stochastic daily precipitation models have been widely used in climate and hydrology studies. A standard technique of analyzing such series is to decompose the original time series into two relatively simple time series called occurrence and intensity processes and then handle these two time series data by standard generalized linear models (GLMs) software. It has been reported that these models can reproduced well the observed precipitation probabilities, wet and dry spell length distributions as well as many other statistics of interest concerning various precipitation occurrence events. However, in the majority of these studies it was reported that high precipitation intensity distributions had not been fitted reasonably well by single right skewed distributions such as Gamma or lognormal. A progress in statistical modeling of precipitation intensity data was made recently – "Furrer, E. and Katz, R. (2008). Improving the simulation of extreme precipitation events by stochastic weather generators, WRR, vol. 44, W12439, doi:10.1029/2008WR007316." These authors replaced the Gamma by a hybrid distribution comprised by a Gamma and Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution while still being admissible in a GLMs framework to allow the straightforward introduction of covariates and systematic assessment of uncertainties. This paper deals with an improved daily precipitation amount model for the territory of Bulgaria based on GLMs that accommodate equally well the small, medium and extreme precipitation intensities. Following closely the methodology of the above authors we propose to model the intensity component of the precipitation models, conditional on the synoptic atmospheric fields via: (1) a Weibull and a mixture of two Weibull distributions; (2) hybrid distribution of Weibull and GP distributions; (2) a hybrid Gamma and distribution discussed. The model is applied to a network of 32 stations and the results show that the observed intensities are reasonably simulated.

Key words: Precipitation downscaling, Weibull distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution, Mixture of distributions, Hybrid distribution
2010-316 A CASE STUDY: EVAPORATION ESTIMATION AT OYMAPINAR DAM
Kevser Senturk 1, Funda Oruc Kocyigit 1
1 General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works Turkey, Turkey

Abstract:
Water is crucial for all socio-economic and environmental aspects and needs to be managed and used in a sustainable use to ensure its long-term availability. Water scarcity, its irregular distribution, limited availability and quantitative and qualitative problems, which are likely to be worsen by climate change and desertification processes, are the main challenges that water managers, policy makers and stakeholders currently face. Water scarcity is a common problem in Turkey especially and there are 40 dams throughout the Mediterranean Cost. Oymapınar Dam construction was finished in 1984 by General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. It is located in Manavgat, Antalya City in the West Mediterranean Cost. Annual total evaporation from the dam lake is approximately 737.894 m3. There are Class a Pan Evaporation measurements at the dam site. In this study, evaporation from Oymapınar Dam lake will calculate by temperature correlation and multiple linear regressions. Dam lake levels, average temperature oC, average wind speed, total precipitation, relative humidity and total radiation data will be used in multiple linear regressions. Homogeneity and ANOVA tests will be applied to data set.

Key words: evaporation, water scarcity
2010-324 A SPACE - TIME ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
Khairulmaini Osman Salleh 1
1 University of malaya, Department of geography, Faculty of arts and social sciences, University of Malaya, Malaysia

Abstract:
This paper discusses the potential evidence of global warming - climate change by examining the trend – surface behavioral patterns of temperature and rainfall of three major river basins at different stages of development in Malaysia. The basins examine were the Klang River Basin describe as a very developed basin in the Malaysia, the Perak River Basin which is at an intermediate level of development and the Kelantan River Basin, which is at minimal level of development. The paper discusses the results of temporal and spatial analyses using time-series and trend surface techniques on the temperature and rainfall data derived within the basin and of surrounding areas. The major objective of the study was to investigate trend changes of temperature and rainfall (percent change) and whether there exists changes in the spatial patterns of distribution of the parameters. The spatial patterns were also map by using administrative mapping units based on the mukims and districts and also using isolines to show the spatial patterns of percent change in temperature and rainfall. Temperature and rainfall records were derived from Department of Meteorology Malaysia stations located within the three basins identified. Temperature and rainfall records were analysed for the period 1951 to 2007. Temperature and rainfall records were also derived from stations operated by the Department of Drainage and Irrigation Malaysia to further enforced the temperature and rainfall records of the Department of Meteorology. The latter temperature and rainfall records were for the period 1935 to 2007. The time series and trend surface analysis performed was based on monthly data for the period mentioned. Hydro-meteorological regions and its temporal and spatial trends and patterns were distinguished from the study. Identification of these hydro-meteorological regions thus describes the potential risk regions to climate change induced stresses within the three basins studied.

Key words: river basins, temperature, rainfall, percent change, trend analysis, surface analysis
2010-352 THE RAINY AUTUMNS IN THE LAST DECADE IN OLTENIA-INDEX OF CLIMATIC CHANGES
Ion Marinica 1, Andreea-Floriana Marinica 2
1 CMR Oltenia,Romania
2 Jacobs University Bremen, Romania

Abstract:
In this paper we analysed the changes in the regime of autumn precipitations of Oltenia-as a part of the aspects considered by the IPCC indexes of climatic changes which take place on the whole planet. Crossed by the 45o N parallel and the 24o E meridian, Oltenia is exposed to different air masses driven by the general circulation of the atmosphere. This region is in equal measure the subject to the action of continental polar and arctic air masses from the North and North-East in the cold season,as well as it is subject to the action of hot and dry tropical air masses or cold and moist maritime polar air masses in the warm season. The interactions between these air masses lead to the overlapping of submediterranean and continental influences. In this papar we focused our analysis on the pluviometric regime of the autumns in the interval 1998-2008; and in this purpose we used the database and the satellite information of CMR Oltenia, as well as the data and map archives provided by the international centers in Bracknell, Berlin, Paris, Moscow. The method used in our analysis is Hellmann's Criterion. The analyse of the time types in the considered period revealed that the percentage in matters of space and time of the exceedingly pluviometric time type was of 63.6%, normal pluviometric was 9.1% and scantily pluviometric was 27.3%.An important change relatively to the previous century is the fact that September has been excessively rainy, as well as the first part of October.In addition, the values of the secondary pluviometric maximum greately exceeded those of the main pluviometrical maximum making the trend of the aridisation of the climate in springs and summers obvious. Ion Marinica-PhD,Senior Researcher, Weather Forecaster First Degree Andreea-Floriana Marinica-Student, Earth and Space Sciences Departament Jacobs University Bremen, Germany

Key words: rainy autumns, submediterranean climate,fast floods,Mediterranean cyclons,humidity excess
2010-368 HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF LAKE PRESPA-LAKE OHRI-BLACK DRINI RIVER SYSTEM
Niko Pano 1, Ramazan Saraci 1, Alfred Frasheri 1, Evis Taska 2
1 Institute of Water and Energy, Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania
2 Albanian Association of Inland and Coastal Waters Conservation and Protection, Albania

Abstract:
Hydrological regime of Lake Prespa-Lake Ohri-Black Drini River System is presented in the paper. Black Drini River catchment area is 5.885 km2 and the average absolute altitude 1.132m. Its hydrographic network gathers the waters of a typical mountainous territory. The objective of study, which results are presented in the paper is analyze and characterize of the hydrological regime of Lake Prespa-Lake Ohri-Black Drini River hydrographic system, that is very complex and includes a wide range of important elements such as natural and artificial lakes, underground waters and springs, numerous branches and rivers. In the study are also include important aspects on catchment area environment, such as hydro morphology, climatology, limnology, hydrogeology, hydro economy, etc. Ecological conditions of this system represent a principal part of the paper. Many particular scientific monographs, studies, presentations in conferences and international project have been performed on Black Drini River hydrographical complex for period 1927-2005. This study, which result are presented in the paper, is an attempt to present a general evaluation of the hydrological regime of this complex.
2010-370 IMPACT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN ALBANIAN ADRIATIC LITTORAL
Alfred Frasheri 1, Niko Pano 1, Fatos Hoxha 2
1 Faculty of Geology and Mining, Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania
2 Institute of Water ena, Albania

Abstract:
The general cascade impact of the climate change on Albanian Adriatic Littoral: decreasing country water resources, influence on the hydrographic regime of Adriatic Sea and on ecosystems are presented in the paper. The study is based on the results of inversion of 6 thermologs data for the ground surface temperature history in Albania, and climate change according to the multi annual meteorological data from different regions of Albania. The wells and the meteorological stations are located in Sedimentary Basin of Albania, at the field region in the west of Central Albania and in the ophiolitic belt in the mountainous region of the northeast Albania. Based on inversion data at coastal plane western region of Albania, GST history presents a gradual cooling before a middle of the 19th century, followed by 0.6 K warming. Climate warming of 0.6 K in the 20th century is observed also in mountainous northwestern Albania. This warming mainly after the second half of the 20th century is presented also by meteorological data: temperature, rainfall, and wind regimes. There are estimated continental water flow, created by atmospheric rainfalls. Impact on processes of the forming and circulation of the Adriatic Sea water mass has been analyzed by particularly attention, for wet and dry years are analyzed. Estimation of run-off discharges is carried out for two categories of river basins: first, for river systems, where run-off discharge is computed as a function of the altitude of water level river section. Second, for the water system of Scutary Lake-Drini River-Buna River, which is very complicated and is the single in Mediterranean Hydrography. The warming impact on country climate, and ecosystems of Albania, thermal stress in the wetlands, lagoons and lakes have presented in the paper. Impact it is observed first of all on the biodiversity.

Key words: Climate change, impact
2010-381 TRENDS OF CLIMATE EXTREME INDICES IN THE 21– st CENTURY IN THE DANUBE MIDDLE AND LOWER BASIN
Constantin Mares 1, Ileana Mares 1,Mihaela Mihailescu 2, Antoaneta Stanciu 1, Heike Huebener 3, Ulrich Cubasch 4
1 National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Romania
2 Agricultural Science University, Romania
3 Hessian Centre of Climate Change, Germany
4 Free University of  Berlin, Germany

Abstract:
Daily values of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures at 10 stations situated in the Danube middle and lower basin were analyzed from the point of view of changes occurred in the climate extremes indices (CEI) in 21st century compared to the 20th century, considering values simulated with the 4 models: CNRM (Meteo-France- Toulouse), ECHAM5-MPI (The Institute of Meteorology Max-Planck, Hamburg), EGMAM (The Free University of Berlin) and IPSL (Pierre Simon Laplace Institute - Paris). Before the data processing, a bias correction procedure related to the observations from 1961-1990 was applied.
For the precipitation the results obtained by analysis of changes in CEI were compared with the analysis by Extreme Value Theory (EVT).  Probability distribution functions and the return levels for different return periods were obtained by means of GEV and GP distributions.  
From the 27 CEI analyses for the extreme temperatures in the 21st century comparative with the 20th century, the most significant results show a significant increasing of the tropical nights number and of summer days, a decreasing of intervals with cold days and days with frost. This result is valid for both Danube middle and lower basin.
The extreme precipitation results are not as evident as in the temperatures and there is a little difference between stations situated in the middle and lower basin of Danube. However, it can be noticed a light trend of increasing of the maximum number of drought consecutive days. From the CEI analysis it can be noticed a light trend of decreasing of the wet days number and of the annual total amount of precipitation in the extremely wet days, but there are years with annual amount of precipitation in the 21st century exceeding that of the 20th century, this being in accordance with the EVT analysis results. 

Key words: climate change, extremes of temperature and precipitation
2010-405 CLIMATIC FACTORS AND THE GROUND WATER TABLE IN EASTERN SOFIA FIELD
Milena Moteva 1, Valentin Kazandjiev 2, Veska Georgieva 2
1 Research Institute for Land Reclamation and Agricultural mechanization, Bulgaria
2 NIMH-BAS, Bugaria

Abstract:
Shallow sub-soil waters are a source of productive soil moisture in agriculture. When available, they meet part of crop evapotranspiration needs. Their presence in the soil water balance means that certain irrigational water amounts would be saved. Contemporary climate change has a proven negative impact on the hydrothermal conditions for crop growing in our country. The restriction of the atmospheric water income causes a decrease in the water resources in soil, namely in the available water content and its feeding up by the sub-soil waters. The goal of the paper is to investigate the dynamics of water table level in the eastern part of Sofia Field during the 40-year period 1960-2000. The long-term levels of the water table at 4 representative manholes from the measuring net of NIMH on important for agricultural crops vegetation dates and their trends has been processed. A long-term succession of monthly water table level has been traced. A parallel with the monthly precipitation and open water evaporation has been drawn in order to find out the natural preconditions of the phenomenon. The dependence of the water levels on the precipitation sums of different periods has been studied. The results show a decreasing tendency of the water levels in the manholes. This is indicative for the water table dropping deeper in the soil profile, hence - for less available soil water for the crops.

Key words: water table, climate change, agriculture, regression, Bulgaria
2010-295 SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EFFECT ON BALKAN PRECIPITATION
Ali Ihsan Marti 1, Volkan Yilmaz 1, Meral Buyukyildiz 1
1 Selcuk University Muhendislik, Mimarlik Fakultesi Kampus, Konya, Turkey

Abstract:
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most significant atmospheric events, which affects the hydrologic parameters on the world. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine whether the Balkans was also affected from ENSO or not. In this context, the precipitation stations of Marmara Region of Turkey (exists at the Balkans) were taken into consideration by generating synthetic monthly precipitation data. This data generation was performed instead of the El Nino year's monthly precipitation by using Feed Forward Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network Model. Therefore, there would be obtained two precipitation data sets for each station (synthetic and original) whose statistical parameters were compared with each other to determine whether the generated data and the original data differ from each other or not. As a result, significant El Nino effect was determined and plotted on the maps for the precipitation data of Turkey's Balkan Region and the surroundings which should be considered for long term drinking water, irrigation, energy and environmental planning purposes. These results can be extended for all the Balkan countries in the subsequent studies to obtain the regions affected from ENSO more precisely.

Key words: Southern Oscillation, El Nino, Balkan, Precipitation
2010-415 CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF DROUGHT INDICES IN ROMANIA IN THE 20th AND 21st CENTURIES
Mihaela Mihailescu 1, Ileana Mares 2, Constantin Mares 2, Heike Huebener 3, Ulrich Cubasch 4
1 University of Agricultural Sciences, Bucharest, Romania
2 National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Romania
3 Hessian Centre of Climate Change, Germany
4 Free University  Berlin, Germany

Abstract:
The climate variability of drought conditions in Romania was studied by using 2 indices; a drought index based on temperature and precipitation data (DI) and the self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) available on line at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk. The drought index DI was calculated using mean seasonal values of temperature and precipitation for 25 stations in Romania for the period 1951-2003. The comparison between summer (JJA) DI at three stations (Bucuresti, Sibiu and Tg. Mures) and sc-PDSI for the same season in 3 grid points very close to the mentioned stations indicate a good concordance. The seasonal values of DI for the period 1951-2003 were decomposed in empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) and rotated EOF. The time evolution of the first principal component for each season and the spatial distribution of the first rotated component were analyzed. For spring and summer the time evolution of the first component indicates a tendency to dryness for the period 1999-2003. The investigation of the spatial distribution of the first rotated EOF component pointed out the fact that in spring, autumn and winter the homogeneous zones for the DI are in the south-east of Romania. In summer, the homogeneous zones for the DI are in the south-west of Romania. The change in the DI between the 20th and the 21st century is analyzed from simulations with the GCM EGMAM. The analyzed station is Drobeta Tr. Severin (situated on the Danube river side at the entry in Romania). The drought index is calculated for the periods 1950-1999, 2000-2049 and 2050-2099 and differences between the periods are shown. We can observe a tendency to dryness for the periods 2018-2028, 2042-2050 and also a tendency to excess of moisture for the periods 2005-2018 , 2030-2041 and 2090-2098.

Key words: Drought index, Empirical Orthogonal Functions
2010-287 EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON GROUNWATER  IN THE KONYA CLOSED BASIN
Guler Gocmez 1, Ayla Bozdag 1, Ali Bozdag 1
1 Selcuk University, Engineering Architecture Faculty, Konya, Turkey

Abstract:
As a result of global warming and climate change, in the future groundwater problems is going to be one of the most important issues in the world. We are consantrate on the water problems and It's solution suggestions in this study. It has important water potential Konya Closed Basin. But groundwater level is degreasing, groundwater reserves runs out at basin conditions to come drought for climate change, low rain amount and unconscious use. Basin's water resources are very limited and groundwater constitute basin's major part. Groundwater of Basin is meteoric origin and from Soughtwest to Norteast. Groundwater level is directly related rains and climate change. Basin' climate type is E, B1, db3 (drought, mesothermal, not have extra water near the Ocean effect climate type). Meteorologically, drought is defined as precipitation falling below normal over a certain period of time. Rainfall in recent years is below average rainfall for many years. According to rainfall distribution graph between 1984-1996 years is rainy period, between 1988-2009 is dry period.

Key words: Drought, rain, Groundwater, Konya Closed Basin
2010-284 AN ANALYSIS  OF TEMPORAL CHANGEABILITY OF  THE RIVERS FLOW IN THE PRIPYAT  BASIN ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE
Stanislav Moskalenko 1
1 Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine

Abstract:
Changeability of atmospheric (weather) processes and as a result changes of climate are significantly influence on the conditions of formation and spatial-temporal changeability of the rivers flow, origin of dangerous hydrological processes or phenomena. In turn, the aggregates of long-term water flow fluctuations sufficiently represent climatic processes that take place in one or other basins. Taking into the account regional changeability of a flow allows us to get a complete picture of changes in conditions of its formation, to specify and confirm conclusions of regional, interyearly, intrayearly changeability of precipitations, long-term fluctuations of meteorological sizes and phenomena researches. To study the changeability of water flow and determine changes in the intrayearly distribution of the rivers flow of the right bank of Pripyat the sequences of average annual flow values for hydrological years and data of average monthly water discharges for the duration of 60 years for 6 hydrological water posts are used. According to the data change of average annual flow for calculation period and its variations are analysed. The annual water flow of the rivers of Pripyat's right bank almost did not change (trend not found), but there is an obvious tendency to decreasing of its fluctuations dispersion. For deeper study of water flow changeability it is important to take into account variations not only of annual water flow but also long-term flow fluctuations for warm period of a year, flow for cold period of a year, changeability of maximal water discharges. Most of rivers have no tendencies to increase or decrease of an annual mean flow, but at the average there is a tendency to increasing of a flow for warm period (from May to October) and decreasing for cold period (from November to April). With respect to changeability of maximal water discharges for all explored rivers the maximal water discharges during a spring flood considerably diminished in comparison with previous periods. For maxima rain floods for long-term period there is no considerable tendencies to increasing or diminishing, although for the last 20-25 years decreasing of their variation is obvious. To find out how intrayearly flow distribution on explored rivers changed for the last 60 years the norms of average monthly water flow were calculated for 3 thirty years terms with overlapping of these periods. Almost on all rivers the redistribution of water flow took place: during spring (May-April) snow-melt flood water flow is diminished in comparing with previous periods and there is some increase of a flow in other months.

Key words: Temporal and spatial flow changeability, annual mean flow, flow for warm and cold period of a year, maximal flow, intrayearly flow distribution
2010-281 ESTIMATION OF AUTHENTICITY AND TENDENCIES IN CHANGES OF WATER FLOW ON THE RIVERS OF WESTERN BUG BASIN (WITHIN THE LIMITS OF UKRAINE)
Veronika Dutko 1
1 Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine


Abstract:
The river water flow is formed under the combined influence of many factors and processes and is the generalized index of their complex action. Change of climatic terms which are stipulated changeability of atmospheric processes, is considerably influence on the terms of forming and spatial-temporal changeability of the rivers flow, origin of dangerous hydrological processes or phenomena. For the estimation of authenticity and tendencies in the changes of water flow on the rivers of Western Bug basin (within the limits of Ukraine) the sequences of middle annual flow values are used for hydrological years and data of average monthlies water discharges by duration 60 years for 4 hydrological water posts. Within the limits of catchments area there is a synchronicity of flow fluctuations, which is conditioned by natural factors. In general influencing of adjustment on the rivers flow is insignificant. To argue authenticity and tendencies of structural fluctuations the theory of casual processes with analysing of the row of random variables equally distributed in time was applied here. Verification of independence and homogeneity of statistical hypotheses was done. Violation of the independence condition in the long-term fluctuations of annual flow in our case is manifested in years grouping of promoted and reduced water content or quasiperiodicity of long-term changes of water flow. The autocorrelation coefficients of the explored rows between the flow of contiguous years are indicate on this, that is by the water flow for years separated by time intervals in one, two and three years, and also estimations after the nonparametric criteria of series and amount of extremums. In the long-term fluctuations of hydrological descriptions the special attention is payed to the problem of confirmation of the presence or absence of appropriate changes of mathematical hope, or trend. The use of parametric methods simplifies not only an estimation trend but also verification of its existence i.e. the real change in time (trend detection). All these situations can be described by linear and polynomial approximation of the trend. The change of the average annual flow and its variation for calculation period is analysed. The long-term flow fluctuations in the Western Bug basin have difficult enough character. At its left-bank part water flow has uniform fluctuations near a statistical norm with increasing variation of these fluctuations. On the Western Bug River and its influxes in a riverhead, there is a clear tendency of increment of an annual flow which can be described as cyclic trend. The variation coefficients of average annual flow for these basins in a long-term period increased in the last decades. In relation to the intrayearly distribution of flow for the last 60 years almost all explored rivers have the redistribution of water flow: during spring flood (May-April) water flow diminished in comparing to the previous periods, there is mainly some increase of flow in other months. An exception is Western Bug, where water flow increased during throughout the year.

Key words: river flow, intrayearly flow distribution, authenticity in the changes of flow, tendency of structural flow fluctuations, the autocorrelation coefficient, parametric and nonparametric criteria of casual processes
2010-274 TOURISM IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ALBANIA
Petrit Zorba 1, Mirela Tase 1
1 Univeristeti Aleksander Moisiu, Albania

Abstract:
Albania, even a small country, because of the physic and geographic conditions, from the climatic point of view has territories or places with a large variety of meteorological indexes, which are characterised for example: with an annual sum of air temperature from 1400°C, similar to the north part of Europe (the south part of Scandinavian countries); as well as has spaces characterised by an annual sum of air temperature up to 6100°C. Climate is a national resource and in the touristic context, it remain still an unstudied field and unevaluated in the requested levels from the touristic demands of our days for our country; furthermore in the sense of what is expected from the point of view of climate change and the respective impact in this sector. In this presentation aimed to present some considerations about those specific aspects offered by the climate of Albania with interest for the tourist, which by different group and interest is in need to have in her hand and to get a preliminary better knowledge, not only for a better organisation for himself, but also how to select the right place in space and time. Also, a special attention will be dedicated to history of meteorological observation in Albania and to the extreme weather events, which time by time are problematic for the country economy; as well as how they can influence the tourist and his decision-making are another site of this presentation.

Key words: Climate, Tourism, Albania
2010-401 CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE YIELD IN DECIDUOUS FORESTS AT THE PETROHAN SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTAL FORESTRY STATION OVER THE PERIOD 1998–2008
Iskra Vassileva 1, Nora Lozanova 1
1 University of Forestry – Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Climatic factors have a significant impact on the surface water yield. The impact of precipitation is the most tangible. In order to perform monitoring of this impact a hydrological station was established in the Petrohan Scientific Experimental Forestry Station (SEFS) on the river Gavaneshtitsa.  An on-going monitoring process started in 1998. The results of precipitations and surface yield measurement over the period 1998 -2008 are presented in the article. The results are tentative due to the short-term period of monitoring.
 

Key words: climatic factors, hydrological station, rainfall, runoff

 

2010-375 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE REGIONAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE OF THE MICRO PRESPA LAKE BASIN
Philip Ganoulis 1, Panagiota Galiatsatou 1
1 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract:
The Prespa Lake System consists of Micro and Macro Prespa, which are shared by Albania, Greece and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper focuses on the analysis of the hydrological cycle of the Micro Prespa Lake by applying a monthly rainfall runoff model in the basin using past hydrometeorological datasets. The second step is to quantify and incorporate in the model the climate change is it is estimated by the latest assessment of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The change in the monthly regional hydrologic cycle of the basin is presented and its possible effects on the fragile ecosystem of the area are analyzed.

Key words: Micro Prespa Lake, Climate Change
2010-489 EXPERIENCE FROM SIMULATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER REGIME IN MONTHLY AND DAILY TIME STEP
Adam Vizina 1, Pavel Treml 1, Oldrich Novicky 1
1 T.G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, Czech Republic


Abstract:
Bilan water balance model, which was originally developed for simulation of water cycle components in monthly step by staff of T.G. Masaryk Water Research Institute in Prague, has already been applied in great number of research projects and practical applications not only in the Czech Republic but also in a number of other mainly European Countries. Its application in other countries was facilitated by international cooperation of its developers, mainly within the activities Low Flow group of North-European section of FRIEND (Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data) project and associated fact that the model is described in detail in Tallaksen and Lannen (2004) and its executable version is available with example data sets on the CD that is attached to the textbook. Requirements stemming from the international cooperation and those specified by Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic for its further development were reflected in a number of its modifications and particularly in the fact that the Bilan was interlinked with climate change scenarios, MODFLOW (modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model developed by the United States Geological Survey) and also with a River basin management model. Its applicability therefore includes studies of possible impacts of climate change on water cycle components (water regime), surface water resources and also groundwater resources. Results of some of these studies are described e.g. in Novický et al., 2007, 2008 and 2009. The paper describes experience from recent developments of the Bilan model, which were focused mainly on its modification for daily step, and from is subsequent application for simulation of climate change impacts on water regime in monthly and daily time step. References Novický, O., Kašpárek, L., Uhlík, J. (2007) Possible impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and groundwater flow in well developed water bearing aquifers. In: Proceedings from The third international conference on climate and water. Helsinki, Finland, 3-6 September 2007, ISBN 978-952-11-2790-8. Novický O., Kašpárek L., Vyskoč P. (2008) Integrated simulation by hydrological, hydraulic and water management modelling techniques in support of water resources management in the Czech Republic, In Taniguchi, M. et al. (Eds) From headwaters to the ocean, Kyoto (Japan), Leiden (NL): CRC Press/Balkema, 2008, p. 243-248, ISBN 978-0-415-47279-1. Novický O., Kašpárek L., Vaculík M., Fridrichová R., Treml P. (2009) Flow trends in observed data and climate change scenarios, In: 33rd IAHR Symposium, Vancouver, Canada. Tallaksen, L., Lannen, H. (editors) 2004 Hydrological drought - processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Developments in water science, 48, Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam.

Key words: Water regime, climate change, Bilan model
2010-497 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CONSTRAINTS ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY
 IN OUEME RIVER BASIN (REPUBLIC OF BENIN)
Blaise Donou 1
1 Laboratoire Pierre PAGNEY, Climat, Eau, Ecosysteme et Developpement (LACEEDE) Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract:
The climate variability in West Africa and in Benin, has an impact on the available water resources on a level with great river systems in Benin during these three last decades. This survey aims at evaluating the impacts of climate constraints on the availability of the surface water resources in basin of Oueme. To proceed with this evaluation, climate data made up of rain heights, temperatures and of the Real Evaporation of the statistical set 1951-2000, and the hydrologic data have been treated and analysed. In this context, the rainfall irregularities, the climate and the hydrologic balance in the basin have been determined. The results’ assessment shows a decrease of rain heights; the increase of temperatures and the Evaporation on analyse of statistical set. On the 1951-2000 set, rain heights have decreased between 12 and 20 percent, whereas temperatures are marked with an augmentation varying between 2 and 4 percent at the basin stations level. This situation leads to a deficiency of the climate balance for many years. Due to that fact, one can experience a deficit of the outflow, and a poor hydrologic balance in the Ouémé river basin. The decrease of the surface water resources availability leads to some social and economic problems in the basin.

Key words: Climate constraints, surface water resources, deficit, Oueme river basin, Benin
2010-498 TREND ANALYSES OF PRECIPITATION-TEMPERATURE AND DROUGHT EXTENTS OF CANKIRI PROVINCE TURKEY
Selim Dogan 1, M.Emin Argun 1
1 Selcuk University Environmental Engineering Department, Turkey

Abstract:
Cankiri Province is located in the northern part of central Anatolia region which is border to Blacksea region in Turkey. The meteorology of Cankiri has been analyzed in this study. Required data for the analyses acquired from the meteorological stations located in Cankiri Province which are operated by Turkish State Meteorological Service. Analyses of temperature and precipitation data are indicator to understand global warming effects. So the meteorological variables such as minimum-mean-maximum temperature, mean humidity, mean pressure, mean wind velocity and total precipitation are selected to explain province meteorology. Periods of drought connected with global climate change are adversely affecting the usability and sustainability of limited water resources. The spatial and temporal extents of drought in Cankiri Province have been manipulated by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method. Drought analyses have been carried out for various time scales such as 1-3-6-12-24-48 months. The trend analyses of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation data acquired from the meteorological stations have been made by using Student t, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho test statistics.

Key words: Meteorology, Drought, Precipitation, Trend Analysis, Climate Change
2010-499 ATMOSPHERIC WATER CYCLE OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA
THROUGH NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
Wilfried Pokam Mba 1, Francois Mkankam Kamga 1
1 University of Yaounde, Cameroon

Abstract:
Moisture fluxes and Precipitation recycling from National Center of Environmental Prediction-National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) datasets are analyzed over Equatorial Central Africa (ECA) (12.50E-300E; 50S-50N) on the period 1968- 2000. Moisture convergence was compute from water balance equation, neglecting atmospheric water due to seasonal timescale, and precipitation recycling to evaluate precipitation recycling based on an efficiency method Burde et al. (2006), providing a numerical realization of the general bulk recycling model formulated in Burde and Zangvil (2001a) and Burde and Zangvil (2001b).
The main results show that :
1)based on seasonal variation, the north component of the African Easterly Jet plays an important role for moisture budget in the region by decreasing upper level zonal moisture divergence when it's located in the north part of ECA (January-March and October-December);
2) in the same period it increase upper level meridional moisture flux convergence;
3) an important part of moisture fluxes vertically integrated in layer 1000-850hPa advected into ECA, from August to November, originate from Atlantic ocean;
4) on inter-annual variability, for both differences between wet and dry years and year to year variability, lower level moisture convergence from Atlantic ocean modulate the entire atmospheric column moisture variability;
5) in all seasons the contribution of regional evaporation to precipitation increases from east to west in most of the region due to predominance of east-west transport of water vapor flux;
6) in both north and south of ECA, recycling ratio is quiet similar in wet and dry years with maximum (minimum) around summer (winter) of each hemisphere;
7) the large and similar seasonal variability of precipitation and contribution to precipitation from evapotranspiration superficially suggest that vegetation and soil moisture status are important for precipitation.

Key words: water cycle, equatorial central africa, precypitation recycling
2010-762 COMPARATIVE ANALYSES OF LANDFILL LEACHATE GENERATION
Donevska Katerina 1, Jovanovski Milorad 2, Jovanovski Joze 3
1 University Sts Cyril and Methodius, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Irrigation, Drainage, Water Supply and Sewage, Macedonia
 2 University Sts Cyril and Methodius, Faculty of Civil Engineering in Skopje, Department of Geotechnics, Macedonia
3 Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, Skopje, Macedonia

Abstract:
Designs of the leachate collection system within the landfill and also of the leachate treatment plant depend on the estimated leachate quantity. Landfill leachate shows significant temporal variability in terms of quantity and leachate composition. The paper presents comparative analyses of the implementation of different methodologies for landfill leachate generation for the particular landfill in the municipality of Centar Zupa.
Water balance is a general term for characterizing, over time, the change in water content within the refuse. It is necessary to differentiate the water contributions and losses from landfill over time to be able to predict the leachate generation rates. Sophisticated methodologies for estimation of leachate generation rates within the landfill include the Water Balance Method (WBM) and the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model. The difference between these two models is that HELP model uses a much more detailed sequence of calculations. HELP model carries out the calculation sequence on a daily basis. The model also has the ability to analyse water fluxes through the complete vertical profile of a landfill.
In order to compare the estimated quantity of generated leachate, the amount of leachate that will be generated within the landfill in Centar Zupa municipality has been estimated using WBM and HELP model. Using climate and meteorological data for the nearest meteorological station in Debar, the annual generation of leachate has been estimated for the planned period of exploitation of the landfill. The calculations of the leachate by HELP model were constrained by a lack of daily meteorological data. Daily data for the main meteorological parameters were obtained by correlation with the nearest meteorological station in Ohrid. The paper presents comparative analyses of the results obtained by WBM and HELP method.

Key words: landfill leachate, generation, Water Balance Method, Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance Model
2010-524 DEFINITION OF THE SIZE OF THE KRUPAC SPRING DRAINAGE AREA (CARPATHO-BALKANIDE ARCH, SOUTHEAST SERBIA)
FOR A KARST AQUIFER WATER BALANCE ASSESSMENT
Vesna Ristic Vakanjac 1, Stevan Prohaska 2, Dusan Polomcic 1
1 Faculty of Mining and Geology, Serbia
2 Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Serbia

Abstract:
The quality of karst groundwater is generally high and does not require substantial investment in treatment to drinking water standards. However, from a hydrologic perspective, karst groundwater resources are the least researched of all water resources and hydro-meteorological services do not devote sufficient attention to them. This paper addresses the definition of a procedure/model for the determination of the size of a karst-spring drainage area, when discharge data are available for short/long periods of time. The data that can be used to define the size of a drainage area are meteorological data (precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, water vapor pressure, ...). However, other data are also required, such as information about discharges from the catchment area into which the analyzed spring drains, or information about the amounts of water drained from an „analog" karst spring over a multi-annual period. The method developed and presented in this paper is illustrated through a case study of the Krupac Spring, Svrljig Mountains, Southeast Serbia.

Key words: karst hydrology, water balance, karst spring drainage area

2010-567 The Simulation On environmental geological of Desertification phenomena In Libya

Fathi Ramadan Elosta
People's Committee for Education and Scientific Research in Tripoli, Libya


Abstract:
Since 400million years ago, the Libya had witnessed geological activities resulted in formation of the physical landscapes of the Libya and formation of the oil and groundwater basins. After the preliminary development of the system of the Tectonic processes during the development stage of karmi & Permian Tish sea water revolved to cover huge areas of the Libyan territory until got to Tibisti mountains, then revolved back until in the Pleistocene epoch a climate change caused rain shortage formation of a Rock layers, hills and huge sand dunes thus creating more desert situation then causing sand dunes extending to huge areas thought the Libyan areas (1,700.000) km2. It is believed that the forth geological epoch had formed most of the Libya Landscape. Libya is situated within the sub dry climate is characterized with rarity of rain fall, which in then caused a wide spread of desertification where huge fertilized hands became dry areas, lacks plantation and animals, therefore resulting in a very poor environmental. The phenomena of desertification is due to far always climate condition as a result of drop in rain fall, in addition to the situation as a result of the area within a sub-desert climate, causing a rise in evaporation rate transpiration a drop in soil moisture high rise in CA+ HCO3 and bi-HCO3 thus causing the spread of swamps and therefore rarity of plant cover in particular in the western rang. Also the intensive irrigation process caused increase in soil salt to become a salt soil not fit for agriculture or for constructions cutting trees in addition to improper pastry. The climate conditions have played a vital role in water shortage which is one of the main problems causing an increase in desertification process. In this study we propose for desertification eradication to use silica formation 90% of rocks metals of the earth sphere .such process come as a result of fusion. This metal is common in all earth rocks and is characterized with the ability to absorb water molecules in order to be able to form of water and provide the same to plant roots, then again compensate whatever quantity of water which may be lost by absorption of air moisture containing water. The square meter needs 25-50kg of silica further we may attempt to fix the sand dunes and stop their marsh by planting pine trees ,oak construction of a water hole to reserve rain water in and outside of the cities and villages in order to benefit from it in crops irrigation .also eructation of five purification plants along the Libyan coast to process rain water and sanitary drainage . This water must be used in soil fixing besides preservation of the Great Man made river which must be used for drinking purposes only. In addition to be above one may use remote sensing to be control soil marching and finding an economic plan of plantation in and outside of cities and villages via frees distribution of trees on citizens establishment of prairies within cities contraction of wind buffers around them so to prevent march. 

2010-581 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGROCLIMATIC RESOURCES
ON THE END OF TWENTIETH CENTURY IN BULGARIA AND MACEDONIA
Valentin Kazandjiev 1, Pece Ristevski 2, Veska Georgieva 1
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology-BAS, Bulgaria
2 Hydrometeorological Service of Macedonia, Macedonia

Abstract:
Climate change in Bulgaria and Macedonia in the end of twentieth century are investigated. The changes and the variability of the air temperatures and the rains are largely reviewed. The course of the climate is developed in warming up and a drying, together with fortification of his unsteadiness and continentally. Temperatures change investigation during last 30 years includes finding the temperature normals for each of representative meteorological (agrometeorological) stations, definition of size and sign of deviation related to climatic normals for 1961-1990 and definition trend of change. There are present climatic averages of temperatures in Bulgaria and in Macedonia, deviation in relation to previous thirty years period (1961-1990) and trend of these deviations. Assessment and characterization of conditions for moisture probability is a main subject for analysis of agroclimatic resources in the both countries. Soil moisture conditions define in large degree dependence between yields from crops that can grow under given thermal conditions and measures which must be taken for high and steady outputs. This defines economical opportunity to develop agriculture on the given territory. Was analyzed and present spatial distribution of rains sum during the last 30 years and tendencies in relation to 1961-1990 period.

Key words: temperatures, rainfalls, climate change, agroclimatic resources
2010-597 IMPACT OF MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE
ON THE VALUES OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND RIVER FLOW IN GEORGIA
George Kordzakhia 1, Meskhia Ramaz 1
1 National Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environment, Georgia

Abstract:
The river flow is one of the important parameter that have a sufficient impact on economy - mainly agriculture and energy sector. The secular courses of the recurrence of the anomalies of warm months according to decades are investigated as the river run-off depending on precipitation and snow melt is regulated by air temperature. During XX century the recurrence of warm months in winter are determined for West and East Georgia. The secular courses of the recurrence of the anomalies of warm winter months according to decades are synchronous between West and East Georgia. The correlation value is high. Statistical analysis of the recurrence of warm winter months in XX century for natural (1921-1960) and natural - anthropogenic (1961-2000) periods of climate change, define that in second period in comparison with first one the recurrence of warm winter months decrease. The recurrence of warm winter months was the biggest in 1950-1969, in 1971-1980 the recurrence of warm winter months was decreased and after 80-ies was increased and this value becomes more than corresponding ones of cold months. Investigation of changes of atmospheric precipitation and river run-off are made for the warm and cold winters defined that the run-off of the rivers, which basins are located till 1000-1200 m from sea level are more correspondingly for West and East Georgia for warm winters in comparison with cold ones and the precipitation is more for cold winters in comparison with warm ones. Analysis of changes of average values of river run-off for winter season for time periods 1925-1960 and 1961-1996 defined that in second time period in comparison with the previous one corresponding values of run-off had increased and totally for Georgia the growth of run-off is 5.3 m3/c.

Key words: Climate hydrology precipitation river run-off
2010-635 IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGES ON THE KUPA RIVER RANOFF
Dusan Trninic 1, Tomislava Bosnjak 1
1 Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract:
The latest studies on climate variability and changes in South and East Europe, including Croatia, the continued air temperature increase trend is expected to be accompanied by further decrease in precipitation and, consequently, number of days with snow and snow cover, decrease in runoff, land humidity and availability of water resources. The results of studies on climate variability and changes (WMO, UNEP, 2008) indicate 23-36 % decrease in annual runoff in South and East Europe for time thresholds set at 2020, 2050 and 2070. The Kupa River annual runoff analysis for the locations near Hrvatsko and Kamanje (period: 1957-2008) shows a decreasing trend. An outcome of such, less than optimistic, forecast is a need for demanding water resources management. The observations and forecasts of climate variability and changes should be continued, focusing in particular on the near future. Also, it is necessary to continue with observation of meteorological and hydrological values for the region and take into consideration the anthropological impact on climate variability and changes.


Key words: climate variability and changes, runoff, Kupa River

2010-636 EFFECT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER BALANCE OF BEYSEHIR LAKE (KONYA -TURKEY)
Sukru Dursun
Selcuk University, Engineering Faculty, Konya, Turkey

Abstract:
Beysehir Lake was the largest drinking water reservoir in Turkey. It has some special statues and it is important for water animals, and lake has many environmental problems. The water level of Beysehir Lake is fluctuating and there are significant relationship between temperature, precipitation, evaporation and water feeding to and withdrawn from the lake. Knowledge of lake levels has recently attracted increased attention because of accelerated lakeshore developmental activities. Lake levels are affected by hydro-meteorological conditions (evaporation, runoff, precipitation, temperature etc.) and anthropogenic activities. Its surface covers an area of approximately 65,000 hectares at the elevation of 1,123 m and average depth is 5 meters (8 m max.). According to long-term statistics, the lake water level is fluctuating between 1121.03 m and 1125.6 m altitude but severe decline in water level was observed in recent years due to overexploitation. Global warming resulting from increases in greenhouse gases and, in turn, local climate changes may potentially affect hydrospheric and biospheric environments locally. As a particular consequence of this, during wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic loses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores, whereas during dry periods there may be water-level ebb tides that may cause descending water resources. Therefore the stable changes in the hydrologic regimes of an unregulated basin generally reflect changes in climatic conditions. It is thus important to analyze trends of lake levels. In addition to providing an understanding of the impacts of climatic change on society and ecosystems, such analyses may result in independent corroborative evidence to confirm the results of trend detection for climate variables.


Key words: Bysheir Lake, Global warming, Climate Change, Water, Konya, Evaporation

2010-637 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES AND VEGETATION DYNAMICS ON STREAMFLOW IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN, CHINA
Qiang Liu 1, Zhifeng Yang 1
1 State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China


Abstract:
The climate changes, combining with the vegetation and soil, impact on the hydrological processes and control the streamflow in the basin scale. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes and vegetation dynamics on streamflow in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The temporal trends of streamflow were explored by the Mann-Kendall method and linear fitted model, and the relationship between the streamflow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) were investigated. Furthermore, the contribution of the climate changes to streamflow was revealed by Budyko's method and the simple water balance model. The results addressed that: (i) the decrease abrupt changes were detected in 1990, which used to divided the streamflow into two periods (baseline period and changeable period); (ii) 67 among 80 stations showed decreasing trends with average reduction -10.37% of annual precipitation changes, while most of the stations displayed increasing trends with an 3.71% increase in annual ETp; (iii) the precipitation and ETp elasticity of streamflow revealed that streamflow increases with the increasing trends of precipitation, whereas is reduced by the increasing trends of ETp; and (iv) the climate changes accounted for 44.02% decline in streamflow from baseline period and changeable period, while the vegetation changes contributed a larger magnitude to the decreases of streamflow, which explained 56.98% reduction in the streamflow.


Key words: Climate change, Hydrological processes, Climate elasticity of streamflow, Precipitation, Potential evapotranspiration, Yellow River Basin

2010-682 TIME-SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION REGIME IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA, FOR THE PERIOD 1951-2000
Pece Ristevski 1, Nina Aleksovska 1, Snezana Todorovska 1, Vesna Pavlovska 1
1 Hydrometeorological Service, Macedonia

Abstract:
Summary Precipitation data from main meteorological stations in the Republic of Macedonia are analyzed in this paper. The analysis of time-spatial characteristics of monthly, seasonal and annual values of precipitation is made. Isohyetal maps are made, pluviometric regime is determined, average, maximum and minimum precipitation sums are separated, as well as their probability of appearance according to the summary Gauss's arrangement for the period 1951-2000. The analysis refers to 13 meteorological stations: Gevgelija, Strumica, Demir Kapija, Shtip, Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Kriva Palanka, Ohrid, Berovo, Mavrovi Anovi, Lazaropole and Popova Shapka. In the same time the analysis of monthly values and comparison of lasting 30 years (normal) series, 1951-1980, 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 are made for 9 main meteorological stations: Demir Kapija, Shtip, Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Kriva Palanka, Ohrid, Berovo and Lazaropole.

Key Words : Rainfall, Climate
2010-683 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST DECADE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Nada Rudan 1, Zeljko Majstorovic 2
1 Hydrometeorological  Institute of Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina
2 Hydrometeorological Institute of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Absatract:
Bosnia and Herzegovina has a complex climate and the point can be divided into three different climatic zone with more or less expressed the transitional zones. That is the reason we decided to investigate the changes of long term means of temperature and precipitation in the meteorological stations within each area and obtain the spatial distribution of these changes for the entire territory of BiH. We produced mean temperature and the average amount of rainfall for the last decade in the period of 1999-2008 for twenty-meteorological stations on the territory of the RS and FBiH and compare them with corresponding values from the reference period, i.e. normals (1961-1990). It was noted that the level and intensity of these changes are not the same for some regions in BiH. The lowest temperature increase is observed in a Mediterranean climate zone, larger at the edge of the Pannonian plain, (i.e. in the region influenced by moderately continental climate from the North) and the largest in the region of Banja Luka. The records showed a certain reduction of mean Precipitation in the Mediterranean climate zone, increasing in other parts, with the highest growth linked to the central mountain belt, i.e. Belt mountain climate. It should be noted that this region of Herzegovina is still among the regions with the highest rainfall. The research has improved with the corresponding statistics of extreme temperature and maximum of daily precipitation.

Key words: climatic zone, spatial, temperature, rainfall
2010-687 SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF 2003 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN THE DYJE AND UPPER VLTAVA RIVER BASINS
Ondrej Ledvinka 1, Jitka Brzakova 1, Hana Kourkova 1
1 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic

Abstract:
Since 2008 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) and T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute (WRI) have cooperated in study of hydrological drought in the Czech Republic (CR). In 2008 the background research was done and suitable daily streamflow time series from several gauging stations were chosen for detailed analysis. Since the first half of 2009 the temporal analysis has been in progress. At Hydrology Division of CHMI the deficit volumes (in mil. m3), drought durations (in days) and also probabilities of non-exceedance were computed. The drought was defined by the Q95 and Q70 values here, whereas shorter (1961–2005) and longer (from beginning of gauging to 2007) periods were considered always. Thereby important dry periods were found. Of course this large quantum of data required cartographical representation that could be more general than tables themselves. Firstly, in the second half of 2009, the area of CR has been divided into smaller parts. The Dyje River basin, the Upper Vltava River basin and especially the 2003 drought have been chosen experimentally. We have decided that the raster creation (gridding) should be in use mainly (similarly to the meteorological drought). In case of drought duration mapping the interpolator called ordinary kriging (OK) has been used. The spherical semivariogram without nugget effect has been set. The numbers of lags and lag-sizes have been changed optionally. Note that anisotropy has not been used, so that only the search radius has been set. It has varied between 50 km and 100 km according to studied area and location of gauging stations. The 2003 drought did not occur at some places; hence these stations have been leaved out of interpolation. Choosing suitable method for the deficit volumes mapping has been worse because every river or stream has different discharge. This problem has been tackled using ratios developed by dividing mean discharges of dry period by long-term discharges of 1961–2005 period. These ratios have been showed as diagrams in the maps of duration. Their size explains the drought severity alternatively instead of the deficit volumes straight. Even though the maps look fine, there are many phenomena that are not included in them (e.g. terrain configuration, land cover, groundwater, dams or precipitation and other climatological factors). We are planning to create such maps for the whole of CR but it is still difficult.

Key words: hydrological drought, geostatistics, Dyje, Vltava, Czech Republic
2010-696 STATUS OF DROUGHT MONITORING IN MONTENEGRO
Mirjana Ivanov 1, Gordana  Markovic 1, Natasa Pazin 1, Vera Andrijasevic 1
1 Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro, Montenegro

Abstract:


HMZCG does not have long term drought monitoring.Information about it exist in non consecutive forms analyzed mainly when drought occurs and reported in public journals or scientific papers.In 2003 an initiative to calculate SPI index was unsuccessful.It is evident lack of meteorological experts and a great demand of disposable experts to be trained.The establishment of the DMCSEE network and its mission is crucial regarding to the drought problems and obstacles in SEE.The Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro-HMZCG is one of the partners in DMCSEE projects and in this paper an intention is to present first obtained results related to the droughts for the territory of Montenegro.

Key words: HMZCG,DROUGHT MONITORING,DMCSEE,drought indices
2010-720 GLOBAL WARMING, DROUGHT AND SOIL HUMIDITY IN REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Aleksandar D.Prodanov 1, Angelko Angeleski 1, Djordji Janevski 1, Milka Markoska 1
1 Hydrometeorological Service, Macedonia

Abstract:
These days global warming has more and more attendance in all part of living. Also global warming has effect in big part of our economy, especially agriculture. We analyzed influence of global warning and appearance of drought, because it is main threat in agriculture. We analyze soil temperature, air temperature, precipitation and their depend of global warming from agriculture areas: Skopje, Pelagonija and Ovce Pole. We used meteorological and agrometeorological data from main meteorological stations: Bitola, Prilep, Stip and Skopje-Zajcev Rid, and data for soil moisture from agrometeorological stations: Dolneni, Novaci, Lozovo, Tarinci and Butel. Our analyze show that global warming have very big influence in appearances of drought and drought periods. According global warming scenarios drought and drought periods are more often in R. Macedonia, and this will inspire reduce in production of organic food.

Key words: global warming, drought, soil humidity
2010-717 PROJECTION OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE XXI CENTURY ON THE TERRITORY OF REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Suzana Alcinova Monevska 1, Pece Ristevski 1, Vesna Pavlovska 1, Snezana Todorovska 1
1 Hydrometeorological Service, Macedonia

Abstract:
Republic of Macedonia has ratified the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 4th, 1997. As a Party to the Convention, there is an obligation for preparation of regular National communications on climate change. The first National communication on climate change was prepared in 2003 and from March 2005 until March 2008 the Second National communication on climate change has been elaborated. Both National communications comprise elaboration of different scenarios for the changes of the main climatic elements as air temperature and precipitation in the XXI century. Significant progress has been achieved with the Second national communication, were has been investigated not only general assessment of the climate change on the level of the entire country according to the latest Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), but also first estimations were done for the regional changes of the basic climate parameters. Also, initial vulnerability assessment to climate change for water resources sector has been elaborated, showing that reduction of outflows from the country is primarily caused by climate change.

Key words: national communication, climate change, climate scenarios

2010-704 ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS IN THE REGION OF POMORIE LAKE
Plamen Videnov 1, Anna Tzenkova-Bratoeva 1, Ekaterina Koleva 1, Julia Ivancheva 1
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria

Abstract:
In the frame of the elaboration of management plan of the protected zone of Pomorie lake the local climate condition in the area has to be estimated. The separate components of the environment as climate conditions surface and ground water regime, air and water quality and quantity and others form the living space of the reserve. The close connection between the biotic and abiotic factors necessitates working out a plan for governing of the lake to pay serious attention to abiotic conditions in the examined region. In the presented paper the local climate regime in the region of Lake Pomorie is described. The long-term variability of the air temperature and precipitation is canalized. In the elaboration the expected temperatures for years 215, 2010,2050 and 2080 are given

Key words: Protected zone, climat, ecology
2010-714 CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT FOR THE TISZA BASIN AND A TRIBUTARY OF THE LOWER DANUBE BASIN
Andras Csik 1, Gabor Balint 1, Boglarka Gnandt 1, Marius Matreata 2, Ciprian Corbus 2
1 VITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute, Hungary
2 INHGA National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Romania

Abstract:
Hydrological impact related results of the Project CLAVIER - CLimate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope concerning mostly Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria are discussed. Hydrological part of the project is aimed at the production of future hydrological scenarios based on the output of regional climate models. Analysis of the simulation results received by hydrological models serves as direct or indirect input for water management DSSs: VITUKI-NHFS and Consul-VIDRA conceptual hydrological models were used to produce long term hydrological series. Mostly Tisza River Basin (the largest - by drainage basin size - tributary of the Danube) and its subcatchments have been studied with special emphasis on Upper Tisza and Mures/Maros rivers. Separately the Arges basin drained by the lower Danube was also covered. The catchments comprising river systems are situated in various climatological and geo-morphological settings across the region. The hydrological models used in CLAVIER project require 0.1 degree grid resolution meteorologial input data. Since the REMO 5.7 dataset was only available in 0.25 degree resolution, a downscaling procedure based on elevation distribution functions was performed by VITUKI in order to get a dataset in the needed resolution. REMO5.7-ERA40 (1961 – 2000) and REMO5.7-A1B (1951 – 2050) produced by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg was further processed. The original error corrected dataset was provided by WegCenter, Graz and INHGA, Bucharest. Transient simulations were carried out covering the period 1951 - 2050. Validation was related to the period 1984 - 2000. Sub-basin temperature and precipitation projections were analysed together with the investigation of the impact on flow conditions. Characteristics of periods 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 were compared. Results indicate in most cases slight decrease of annual mean flow throughout the region, with significant spatial variability and even some increase for the high elevation zones in the Upper Tisza subcatchments.

Key words: climate change, hydrological impact, Danube, Clavier
2010-725 ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION FROM POOR PEOPLES' PERSPECTIVE – A CASE STUDY OF BANGLADESH
Sudip Pal
Chittagong University of Engineering & Technology, Raozan, Bangladesh


Abstract:
Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world in the event of climate change. A number of studies on the impact of climate changes in Bangladesh exist. However, quite a few details have been found discussed in this real impact on identified coastal areas victims. In this paper, the households' opinions based on what they noticed or can reveal due to climate change issues were examined. To explore clear picture at root level of potentially affected areas of natural hazards and vulnerable for any degree of climate change, a survey was designed to gauge households' reactions to a possible impact, consequences and plans to engage poor people who are mostly affected along the coastal belt. During March 2008 to June 2008, the two coastal districts of Bhola and Patuakhali in Bangladesh were visited and surveyed several times to take a snapshot of how poor families are experiencing the changing climate, and how they might deal with this in the future. Based on the survey results, it has been revealed from the widespread insight from ordinary villagers that the climate was already changing, particularly in its unpredictability compared to 10 or 20 years ago, and the extremes it can reach. They report cyclones, unpredictable weather, the threat of salt water intrusion from sea level rise, and unpredictable and concentrated rainfall causing more flooding than usual or flooding at unusual times of the year. It has been further noted that poor peoples at root level are real sufferers undoing any harm to the environment related to climate change issues. Additionally, study found that any adaptive measures in these coastal areas for that potentially affected people should be focused according to there perspective so as to ensure successful implementation and long term operation.



Key words: Climate change, Hydrology, Poors, Adaptation

2010-746 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER LEVEL OF AN OXBOW OF THE DANUBE
Adrienn Hunyady 1, Istvan Zsuffa 1, Gabor Balint 1, Balazs Gauzer 1, Boglarka Gnandt 1
1 VITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract:
In the Carpathian Basin wetlands are very vulnerable to climate change. One of the most vulnerable regions is the Duna-Dráva National Park, where the small and shallow oxbows along the river Danube are endangered. The purpose of this paper is to determine how climate change, as projected by the CLAVIER project of the EU affects a typical oxbow located in Gemenc in the Duna-Dráva National Park in Southern Hungary. To simulate the water levels of the investigated oxbow, a hydraulical ‘FOK’ model is applied. This model requires meteorological data and water level time series of the river Danube. The original meteorological data for the period 1951-2050 according to the IPCC’s A1B scenario are provided by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg and the post-processed, error-corrected version is provided by WegCenter, Graz in the frame of the CLAVIER project. The long term water level time series are simulated by the VITUKI-NHFS conceptual hydrological model.

Key words: climate change, hydrological impact, Danube, Gemenc

2010-753 AN EXAMPLE OF WEATHER IMPACT ON A HILLY LANDSCAPE
Bozo Soldo 1, Matija Oreskovic 2
1 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Geotechnical Engineering, Croatia
2 Polytechnic in Varazdin, Study of Civil Engineering, Croatia

Abstract:
Quantities of precipitation within a certain area and during a certain period of time vary from time to time. If observed in a more general sense, precipitation certainly has an effect on the state of the surroundings, i.e. the landscape. The paper is an example of the influence of weather conditions on a hilly landscape in a technical sense. The key example of said landscape is a hilly portion of north-western Croatia, where sliding of natural slopes occurred within a certain period of time and due to certain weather conditions.

Key words: precipitation, hilly landscape, seepage, erosion, sliding
2010-378 HYDROCLIMATIC TRENDS IN ROMANIA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY
Birsan Marius-Victor
National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management,National Center for Hydrological Forecast,  Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
Streamflow records from 55 undisturbed watersheds in Romania have been tested for trends with the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test in three study periods (1951-2000, 1961-2000, 1971-2000), in order to analyze the annual and seasonal changes in the daily streamflow distribution. In order to discriminate trends from stochastic fluctuations and from the influence of serial correlation in the time series, the series presenting positive lag-1 serial correlation after detrending were prewhitened by applying a first order autoregressive filter to the data prior to trend analysis. The statistical significance of trends is tested for each station on an annual, seasonal and monthly basis and for different streamflow quantiles. Identified trends in streamflow are then related to the observed changes in precipitation and air temperature, and correlated with the basin attributes (area, mean altitude, mean slope, basin shape index, river network density, mean soil depth, mean SCS curve number, and forest coverage). Finally, a bootstrap procedure is applied for testing the field significance of trends. 

2010-151 ONE-DIMENSIONAL UNSTEADY FLOW MODEL IN THE NON-PRISMATIC BUTONIGA CHANNEL
Elvis Zic 1, Nevenka Ozanic 1, Mijo Vranjes 2
1 Faculty of Civil Engineering University in Rijeka, Croatia
2 Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture University in Split, Croatia

Abstract:
The Butoniga channel, as a drainage - retaining channel of the Botonega accumulation is a typical and complex trapezoidal earth channel with inundations on both sides that can be found in most water-managing solutions in Croatia. Within hydraulic interrelationship research, this channel is appropriate for the performance of several series of water measurements with different discharges in unsteady conditions. This is particularly important for the analysed section of the Butoniga drainage - retaining channel for practical reasons,, that is, for the purpose of establishing the maximum capacity of the channel in terms of evacuation of high waters. On the basis of the numerical model of one-dimensional unsteady flow, created in the software package MIKE11, we can determine all kinematical and dynamic characteristics of the Butoniga channel and simulate or identify channel spillways. The article defines ruling equations for the modelling of 1D unsteady flow in the Butoniga channel and the algorithm for determining the coefficient of roughness. Furthermore, the most frequent methods for defining the numerical schemes for calculation of unsteady flow in the open hydraulics channels have been described too. The developed model of 1D unsteady flow in the non-prismatic Butoniga channel represents the contribution to the development of hydraulic modelling in terms of the insurance of an adequate tool for the quantification and verification of the influence of the channel geometry change on the coefficient of roughness and thereby on the channel throughput.

Key words: the Butoniga channel, unsteady flow, numerical model, channel throughput,  coefficient of roughness

2010-043 TURKEY SURFACE WATER POTENTIAL AND ITS CHANGE IN TIME
Mehmet Yildiz
Electrical Power Resources, Ankara, Turkey


Abstract:
Water which is in brisk demand for drinking, watering, energy and the other requirements gains in importance in Turkey day by day. Questions about the existence of water which is rised in value and its changes in the period of time are placed on the  agenda importantly. This study which intends to answer these questions, surveys the position of surface water trend and its changes in the period of time. In this study, data of daily mean, annual mean and maximum, minumun trend belonging to 130 of river observation stations in the 25 basins in Turkey are used.  When the changes in the trends according to distribution over the regions are examined with the available water potential, trends of rivers in Marmara, Ege, Ic Anadolu,(including Sakarya basin)and Akdeniz regions, have a change. This change observed in the trend is in the position of decreasing generally except same stations. As a conclusion, in the last 39-73 years, it is obvious that there is a decreasing trend in surface water in the west, middle and South regions. In contrast, surface water in the other regions increases in the period of time.

 

Key words: Water Potential, River Basin, Trend, drought, Dry and Wet Period

 2010-002  WATER QUALITY EVALUATION OF ALA RIVER AND SOME WELLS AND THE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE  IN AKURE ONDOSTATE NIGERIA

Oyebola Adebola Elemide

Federal College of  Agriculture  Akure Along Obaile Road Ondostate Niger, Nigeria

 

Abstract:

This paper reports the estimation of some quality parameters of Ala River and some well in Akure.  Surface qualities of the river were studied in order to evaluate its uses.  Water and soil samples were collected from the river and nearby small-irrigation farms at Alagbaka, Oyemekun Oba Ile and Adesida quarters.  The samples were analyzed using standard analytical techniques and were compared with recognized water quality standard.  Quality parameters like pH, Dissolved oxygen, Turbidity, Total alkalinity, Temperature.  Chloride, Total hardness, calcium, magnesium, Total solid, Nitrate and colour were determined in water samples from selected well and Ala river.  The range of values obtained were pH (6-7), Total solid (50.0-192.0mg) Dissolved oxygen (2.6 to 4.8mg/L) Calcium hardness (36.0-48.0 mg/i).  These values when compared with standard showed that the river and well are polluted.  Appropriate treatment should be employed to make it fit for domestic water supply, Agriculture and recreational activities.  The results obtained in the analysis were compared with the World Health Organization Standard for portable water and recommended that the water be further purified before domestic use.


Key words: Agriculture, Recreational, water  Quality, World health organization standard

2010-005 IMPACT OF EUCALYPTUS ON THE GROUNDWATER (A CASE STUDY OF UDIGRAM, SWAT VALLEY NORTHWEST PAKISTAN)

Saifullah Khan 1, Prof.Dr Mahmood-ul-hasan 2
1 USF CO, 5th floor HBL Tower Blue Area Islamabad, Pakistan
2 Chairman Department of Geography Univesrity of Peshawar NWFP, Pakistan

 

Abstract:
The plantation of eucalyptus on mountains is not profitable, because it evaporates above 50liters groundwater per day into atmosphere and is more dangerous to watertable as well as rock reservoirs. The water evaporated by eucalyptus is more as compared to the incoming water. This imbalance in water cycle causes change in watertable as well as flow of water from the springs. On the other hand, its wood is of poor quality, and having low market demand and domestic use. The rainfall shows  -5cm (2 inches) decrease per year in winter between 1995 and 2000, whereas, the rate of increase is 1.24inches (3cm) per year in summer season. The major share of annual rainfall was from winter precipitation before 1995, but onward, it is from summer and the area dropped from humid to sub-humid climates.  This seasonal fluctuation of rainfall and dryness of rocks reservoirs due to plantation of eucalyptus on mountains has not only decrease the watertable and groundwater but it has also caused change in the flow of water from the springs, and has decreased with discharge of rivers. The dryness of wells after reduction in rainfall, generally, leads to the digging and intensive use of tubewells in the area. 

2010-015 HOW TO PLAN A SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY MANAGEMENT WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS CONFLICT WITH EXISTING PRACTICES IN NATIONAL PRESPA PARK
Dorina Grazhdani
Agricultural University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania




Abstract:
Concerns over the relationship between environmental protection, prevention of loss of biodiversity and protection of habitats and of internationally important species of flora and fauna on the one hand and sustainable economic activities and recreation in a protected area on the other can all be dealt with effectively by appropriate regulatory and policy measures, particularly with the support of local actions that strive to preserve local biotopes and conditions. The aim of the present paper is to provide information on the current situation of the forestry on the Albanian side of the lakes Macro and Micro Prespa, along with the existing practices and regulations, and to offer views from an Albanian perspective that will help resolve some of the current difficulties. Forestry is one of the main economic activities in the area. Forest areas in Prespa mainly consist of oak forests (63%) and beech stands (15%). Lack of alternative heating resources set a high pressure on forests that are used for firewood production for communities living within and in some areas around the Prespa Park. In addition, fodder production and forest grazing are damaging the forests area. Some forest areas (3,721 ha) are transferred to communal use and are managed by the Forest Users Association of Liqenas. In the last three years several improvement interventions (coppicing, fencing, thinning) are realized with the support of World Bank, WFP and other donors. There is a need for a general forest management plan and improvement interventions in the area. The forestry policies and practices applied in Albania over the last fifty years have negatively affected the region's biodiversity in general and its forest species in particular. It is very important for the future of the species found in the Prespa region, as well as for the communities that depend upon them, to strive, through best practices, analysis of policy and positive actions of trans-boundary cooperation, to improve the current situation. Some remedies are presented in the present paper.

Key words: Forestry, environment, biodiversity, pasture, firewood
2010-020 IMPROVING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSES OF DEGRADED SOILS IN SEMI ARID KENYA
Mr Kevin Mganga
University of Nairobi, Kenia


Abstract:
Anumber of techniques have been developed for range rehabilitation in semi-arid environments of Kenya. Grass reseeding technology has been used as a management tool for soil and water conservation and restoration of degraded ecosystems in Kibwezi district, Kenya. The aim of this study was to establish the contribution of reseeding using indigenous perennial grasses namely Eragrostis superba (Maasai love grass), Enteropogon macrostachyus (Bush rye) and Cenchrus ciliaris (African foxtail grass) in improving soil hydrological properties and thus control soil erosion. The experiment was carried out using simulated rainfall, Kamphorst simulator, on bare ground and at different grass stubble heights. The experimental plots were set up under sprinkler irrigation control conditions to ensure availability of sufficient moisture for seed germination and subsequent establishment. Results showed that sediment production as a function of soil erosion, runoff and infiltration capacity were significantly different (p< 0.05) at different grass stubble heights. Cenchrus ciliaris had the greatest influence on improving soil hydrological properties. Enteropogon macrostachyus and Eragrostis superba were ranked second and third respectively. This was attributed to the growth characteristics of the perennial grasses. Generally, an increase in grass height increased infiltration capacity, reduced runoff and sediment production.

Key words: Reseeding, semi-arid, soil hydrological properties, sediment production
2010-030 WATER QUALITY AND HUMAN INFLUENCE ON COASTAL ECOSYSTEM OF SOUTH INDIA
D.Sanna Durgappa
Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science Bangalore, India

Abstract:
The problem confronting coastal resource managers in the west coast of India is analogous to the question of whether economic policy makers in India should be focusing on restoring the fundamentals of capitalism. Pragmatic monitoring and prediction capabilities must also be built to provide further confidence that human impacts are being minimized. There is a need to develop a framework to integrate biodiversity effects methods with risk assessment methodology. Such integration will improve the basis for risk-based assessment of coastal health. To protect estuary and coastal ecosystems and the health of communities effectively, management infrastructure requires the tools and resources necessary to detect damage to estuary and coastal ecosystems and their components, identify causative agents, impose remedial action, and demonstrate that measures have been effective. In contrast, bottom-up restoration strategies not only simplify planning, but they recognize that basal ecological mechanisms are what define coastal ecosystems.  Populations of the majority of fish species showed drastic reduction over the past five decades in west coast of India. We conducted an intensive study of Aghanashini estuary for water quality and fish diversity in west coast of India. Coastal ecosystems are impacted by many stressors and are continually subjected to threats from multiple stresses imposed mostly by human activities predominantly as a result of increased population growth in India. The most significant categories of threats derive from water pollution from numerous sources including thermal effluents, heavy metals, oil, sewage, pesticides,  pulp mills,  habitat loss and degradation: overexploitation: eutrophication and misguided human perceptions. Wide array of prohibited fishing methods are rampant by using of insecticides as poisons, destruction and modification of habitats, dynamiting, using chemical and herbal poisons. Due to deteriorated water quality from anthropogenic activities fish diversity has drastically reduced. In complex coastal ecosystems, strategies for restoration can become equally complicated.  Our tendency to want to predict and establish performance targets for the charismatic megafauna which populate the higher trophic levels of an ecosystem may reduce our ability to actually implement restoration plans.

Key words: Human activity, water quality, fisheries
 

2010-052 THE STUDY OF FLORISTIC DIVERSITY IN THE LAKE OHRID ECOSYSTEM
Hysen Mankolli
Department of Agro-Environment and Ecology, Agricultural University of Tirana, Albania


Abstract:
The ecosystem of Ohrid Lake is one of the most important areas in Albania because of the variety of diversity, floristic diversity and variations of cultivating plants. Many spaces of Ohrid ecosystem have a national and international protection. The study: "ť The study of floristic diversity on the Lake Ohrid ecosystem"ť realized in the two points of study Tushemisht and St Naum realized on 2007 year. In the Albanian and Macedonian part of the Lake were found one after the other, six areas of vegetation: a. the area of Charts spp., b. the area of Potamogeton spp., c. the area of Phragmites australis or the group of rods, d. the area where prevail floaty kinds of leaves, e. marsh areas f. the area of woods (up to 1000 m). In many places the highest density is noticed in the classes Phragmitetea (close to the waterside) and Charetea (from 5-20 m of depth). In the Albanian and Macedonian part of the lake, is developed the part of rods. The founding of a monitoring system for taking the measures, in order to notice the changes in vegetation. Preservation of the equilibrum between the natural ecosystem and the agroecosystem. Based on the height of the area, they may be divided in: oak forest termofil with wide leaves, where the oak prevails, and Quercus frainetto, associated regularly with Acer inonspessulanum, A. platanoides, Fraxinus ornus in the lowest and warmest parts of oak forests. Forests with oaks that endure the cold, such as Quercus petraea and Q.cerris, associated by Sorbus torminalis, Acer obtusatum, Fraxinus excelsior, encountered in the middle and upper part of the oak forests. Formations of the forests with beech leaves that fall encountered in the upper part of the forest,. A prevailing species is Fagus sylvatica associated by Carpinus betulus, Acer obtusatum, A. pseudoplatanus, Daphne mezereum, Tilia cordata the Sorbus aria, Populus alba, Salix alba, Fikus spp. etc. a species with a special interest is chestnut, Castanea sativa, with woods that grow in the park and in the hills close to Pogradec. Near the hills of Tushemisht and mountain beam , is found an endemic plant Alyssum markgraji (LINNAEUS, 1758).

 

Key words: vegetation, lake, mountain, ecosystem
2010-105 TOXICOLOGICAL STUDY OF PESTICIDES IN PARIS RAINWATER BY A BIOLUMINESCENCE METHOD
Snezhana Efremova Aaron 1, Moussa Mbaye 2, Diaboue Gaye Seye 2, Jean-Jacques Aaron 3, Marc Chevreuil 4, Hélčne Blanchoud 4
1 Department of Medical Biochemistry, Medical Faculty, Sv. Ciril & Metodius University, Macedonia
2 Lab.de Photochimie et danalyse, Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar,Senegal
3 Lab. LGE, Univ.Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallee, France
4 Lab.Hydrologie et Environnement, Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, France

Abstract:
A detailed toxicological study on several pesticides, including chlorothalonil, cyprodynil, dichlobenil, pendimethaline, trifluraline and alpha-endosulfan, present at the trace level in Paris rainwater was described. Rainwater samples were collected during sampling campaigns in February-March 2007, and analysed for their pesticide content by HPLC-UV. Toxicity measurements were performed by using the Microtox ® bioluminescence method, based on the evaluation of the bioluminescence inhibition of Vibrio fischeri marine bacteria at two exposure times to the pesticide solutions. The specific toxicity, represented by the EC50 parameter, was determined for each of these pesticides. Also, the global toxicity, which corresponds to the toxicity of all micro-pollutants present in the sample, was evaluated for the extracts of atmospheric precipitation (rainwater) samples. The EC50 parameter values varied significantly between 0.17 and 0.83 mg/mL, and 0.15 and 0.66 mg/mL, respectively, for exposure times of 5 and 15 min, according to the type of pesticide. The extent of the Paris rainwater global toxicity and the respective contribution of the toxic potency of the various pesticides contained in the samples were discussed.

Key words: rainwater pollution, pesticide traces, toxicity measurements, bioluminescence method

2010-152 CHANGES OF PHYSICAL AND WATER-AIR PROPERTIES OF SOIL TYPE PSEUDOGLEY WITH DRAINAGE
Radmila Pivic 1, Dragana Josic 1, Nevenka Djurovic 2, Aleksandra Stanojkovic 1, Miroslav Pivic 1
1 Institute of soil science, Belgrade, Serbia
2 Agrucultural faculty, Belgrade, Serbia


Abstract:
Institute of soil science, Belgrade, in 1950's established experimental field on pseudogley type of soil, with intention for agrochemical experiments. In 1978. on a part of the experimental field, it was established horizontal drainage system with flexible, perforated pipes Ř 80 mm in depth 0,95 m on marble filter, with drain spacing of 25m. In 2002. horizontal drainage was performed in additional two variants, with drain spacing 20m and 30m, using flexible perforated PVC pipes, Ř 80 mm, on marble filter, 0,90m depth. On experimental area it was opened five pedological profiles: profile 1- control; profile 2- in area with drain spacing of 20m; profile3 – drain spacing 25m above the drain; profile 4 – drain spacing 25m, between two drains; profile 5 – in area with drain spacing of 30m. Intention for this examination was to define starting values for future comparative analysis of the elements of water-air regime of pseudogley type of soil. In laboratory it was performed following analysis of water-physical properties of soil samples: mechanical composition, bulk density, specific gravity, porosity, air capacity, retention characteristic of soil.

Key words: Drainage, Pseudogley, Water-air regime

2010-158 THE IMPACT OF THE MINING ACTIVITIES OVER THE ENVIRONMENT
Laura Golosie 1, Mircea Golosie 2, Gheorghe Rogobete 1
1 "Politehnica" University of Timisoara, Romania
2 NGO "Hobby Club Jules Verne" from Buzias City, Romania

Abstract:
The mining activity has a long history in Romania, since Dacian times. After the 1850 the negative phenomena of the mining activities start to have amplitude. The industrialization of these mining activities provoked majored changed: allocation of the localities, the migration of populations, construction of montages roads, or the primary processing of the ore. In industrialization area after 1989, all were going on chaotic. The mining activity has an influence in more plans: - The decantation for the sterile from the flotation processing- in those dumps can be found not only sterile but elements of others minerals also; - The localization of the mining dumps- all those are localized in areas isolated and in the civic center of some localities; - The installations for the ore primary processing milling, flotation, separation and transport can be found in the mountain areas, but also in the center of the mining localities which are partial or total demolished; - The galleries and the mine openings- some of those are building with concrete; others are destroyed or are open. All those are dangerous even in the isolated areas or in the localities perimeters; - The loading platforms can be found now, even under the level of some surfaces waters. The materials from those constructions are transported day and night, and produce a polluting effect, which is not taking in consideration by the authorities. If the wrappers are take in consideration thanks the visual discomfort, the mining activities elements (radioactive metals, decantation damps, dislocated galleries, the underground waters strongly polluted) for the moment are treated with very low importance. The authors propose a systematic and interdisciplinary study useful for the inhabitants from the affected areas, which through the disappearance of the mono industrialization, the environment destruction, the spirituality modification are exposed at different forms of aggression.

Key words: mining, pollution, radioactivity, mountain

2010-168 WATER INFRASTRUCTURE AND FOOD SECURITY LINKAGES IN THREE SELECTED REGIONS OF ETHIOPIA
Tesfaye Tafesse
Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia

 

Abstract:
Access to water infrastructure reduces the exposure of people to a variety of diseases that obstruct the intake and utilization of food. In addition, it can reduce the time of hauling water by women thereby increasing their productivity and status. The study has considered two important water infrastructures, namely, domestic water supply schemes and irrigation that affect food security in Ethiopia. Within Ethiopia, three regions that fall within the Ethiopian portion of the Nile Basin, namely, Amhara, Oromia and Tigrai, were purposively selected. Data and information pertaining to food security situations and the status of domestic water supply and irrigation for all zones in the regions have been collected. Descriptive and inferential statistical techniques have been used to analyze the data. The findings of the study have shown that food security status in the three regions of Ethiopia is generally low and varies considerably from zone to zone and region to region. The study has also established the existence of strong linkages between water infrastructure and food security in Ethiopia. One finds a relatively lower number of food insecure population in areas where there are better accesses to water supply and irrigation agriculture. This implies the need for policy interventions that can help in upgrading and expanding water infrastructures, adopting an integrated food security and infrastructure development approach, maintaining the existing water schemes and universalizing water coverage in Ethiopia.

 

Key words: food security, water  infrastructure, livelihood vulnerability, water scarcity, food security strategy
2010-246 ASSESSMENT OF RAINFALL WATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF ETHIOPIA: CASE OF "YERER" WATERSHED, OROMIA REGION
Fitsume Yemenu 1
1 Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Ethiopia

Abstract:
This study was conducted to assess the rainfall potential of 'Yerer' watershed in the central highlands of Ethiopia, Oromia Regional State. Different models like FAO(1978), Reddy (1990), the NMSA (1996) and the Markov Chain were used to analyze and explain the thirty three years of weather record (1975-2007) and subsequently determine and estimate the onset and end of the growing season, the length of the growing period and the dry/wet spell lengths and distributions in the study area. The mean onset of the main growing season was found to occur during the second meteorological dekade and ended during the end of September. Similarly, though unreliable and only few occurred during the entire study period, the mean onset of Belg season was found to occur during the beginning of the first dekade of April. The length of the growing season during the main rainy season, Kiremt, ranged from 112 to 144 days with a standard deviation of 9.6 days and coefficient of variation of 7.5%. However, the mean growing length during the Belg season was found to be 22.4 days with a standard deviation of 27 days and coefficient of variation of 122%. The results of analysis obtained both from the Markov Chain model and Reddy indicated higher probabilities of dry spell occurrences during Belg but the occurrences of the same in Kiremt was very minimal. Like wise, the SPI model detected some drought events ranging from mild to severe classes in both seasons based on one and three-month time scale analysis.

Key words: SP,I Onset, End, Belg, Kiremt, Markov Chain
2010-203 INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS DURING VEGETATION PERIOD ON THE YIELD AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF IRRIGATED AND NON IRRIGATED GRAIN CORN
Aleksandar Matev 1, Hristofor Kirchev 1, Radost Petrova 1, Atanas Sevov 1, Vania Delibaltova 1
1 Agricultural Universit,Bulgaria

Abstract:
The aim of experiment was to establish the influence of meteorological factors during the vegetation period of grain corn, on the yield and evapotranspiration. The experiment was carry out during 2004 – 2007 period, on Mollic fluvisoils (FAO – UNESCO) in region of Plovdiv (Bulgaria). The data from irrigation (by 75 % of FC) and non irrigated corn have been used. Dependencies between yield and meteorological factors have been established, as well as soil layer water depletion. The value of evapotranspiration and it's formatting nave been calculated (274 – 379 mm without irrigation and 378 – 515 mm by optimum irrigation).


Key words: corn, irrigation, evapotranspiration, yield

2010-328 WATER DEFICIT INFLUENCE DURING DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES ON THE SOYBEAN YELD
Vera Tzenova 1, Yordanka Kirkova 1, Georgi Stoimenov 1
1 ISS, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Two year field experiment with soybean was conducted on the meadow-cinnamon soil in Sought Bulgaria with 14 variants irrigation regimes in 3 replications. Two types irrigation regimes were realized: with 0, 0.35, 0.7, 1.0 and 1.35 relative irrigation depth during the all vegetation period and the others-with regulated water deficit-i.e.0, 0.35,0.7 relative irrigation depth during one growth stage and 1,0 during the other two stages. Gypsum blocks were used for soil moisture dynamic evaluation and Infra red thermometer- for plant water status evaluation. Precipitation, air and soil temperatures, relative humidity were determined during soybean vegetation season. Physiological plant water stress indicators (proline content, electrolyte flowing, plastide pigments content) were determined. Relationships "relative yield-relative irrigation depth", "relative yield-relative evapotranspiration", "yield- number of days with dT>0, "yield reduction-number of days with dT>0" with high correlation were obtained (R2>0,8). Physiological stress indicators were in accordance with temperature difference (dT) between canopy temperature (Tc) and the ambient air temperature (Ta).

Key words: canopy temperature, yield, irrigation depth
2010-332 THE MAIN ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVING FORCES OF THE INVASIVE PLANT SPECIES IN THE ROMANIAN PROTECTED AREAS
Monica Dumitrascu 1, Ines Grigorescu 1, Mihaela Nastase 2,Dragota Carmen-Sofia 1, Gheorghe Kucsicsa 1
1 Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
2 Romanian Forest Administration, Romania

Abstract:
The invasive species are largely recognized as major cross-cutting issues in terms of threatening native biodiversity, ecosystem structure and functions, especially within protected areas, causing severe negative socio-economic consequences requiring effective management. The invasive flora of Romania currently includes more than 400 species (13.87% of the Romanian flora) and according to the third National Report of Biological Diversity Convention, six of them are tree species (Acer negundo, Ailanthus altisima, Amopha fruticosa, Cytisus scoparius, Fraxinus americana, and Fraxinus pennsylvanica.). Within the protected areas, some of the most representative invasive plant species (IPS) are: Amorpha fruticosa in Balta Mica a Brailei National Park, Ailanthus altissima and Accacia ssp. in Muntii Macinului National Park, Acer negundo, Parthenocissus quinquefolia and Ailanthus altissima in Lunca Muresului Natural Park etc. The paper is aiming to identify and analyze the main environmental driving forces responsible for the introduction and spread of the IPS in Romanian protected areas (natural driving forces: relief, lithology and soil, climate, hydrology, vegetation etc. and human-induced driving forces: agricultural practices, grazing, forest exploitation, mining activities), that could develop introduction pathways whose dimension and dynamics are directly related to the restrictive measures imposed by each UICN category. The authors have as main purpose to create a GIS-based inventory in order to realize the distribution maps of the main IPS existing in the protected areas of Romania. Based on this assessment and on other relevant case-studies, the authors are aiming to identify the impact of IPS upon the natural habitat of some rare species, especially when talking about protected areas and their conservative importance. The importance of assessing IPS in protected areas is increasingly important in terms of establishing the best management measures for invasive species mitigation and promotion of efficient cooperation at national and regional level to prevent or minimize their adverse impacts.

Key words: Invasive plant species (IPS), environmental driving forces, protected areas, Romania
2010-364 CHANGES OF SOME SOIL CHARACTERISTICS IN RESULT OF DEGRADATION PROCESSES IN MALESHEVSKA MOUNTAIN, BULGARIA
Emiliya Velizarova 1, Ivan Marinov 1, Todor Lubenov 2
1 Forest Research Institute - BAS, Bulgaria
2 Solar-Terrestrial Influences Institute – BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Forest soils in the Bulgarian part of Maleshevska mountain are being seriously degraded and destructed due to erosion processes. The mountain relief, climate conditions, density of the hydrographical network, deforestation and intensive pasturing as well as changes of the land-use type are of primary importance for intensive soil erosion processes in the Struma river watershed, which is strongly influenced by the Mediterranean-type of climate. The objective of this study was to assess how some of the most important soil chemical and physical properties are affected by degradation processes, if the lands are subjected to different types of use. The studied lands are located in the middle part of the Struma watershed basin. Two watersheds – Sedelska and Vojche have been selected as representative torrential tributaries. The main soil groups are represented by Luvisol, Cambisol and on the upper part of these watersheds also partly by Regosols. The soil skeleton, particle size distribution and their relations with other soil properties of the superficial soil horizon were analysed. Soil organic carbon (OC) and total nitrogen (TN) were also determined. The Arc Info 9.2 software was used in order to present the geographical distribution of the data obtained. According to our investigations, the soil degradation has resulted in a clear differentiation of the soil skeleton depending on the type of exposure and on the position of the sampling sites on the slopes. On the slopes with a sunny exposure, the skeleton increased to 67 %, whereas on the less sunny slopes, which are those exposed to the north, it reached only 44 %. The results of particle size distribution show a tendency of a prevailing content of the sand fractions in the soil on the slopes with southern exposure and an opposite one for the northern slopes. There was no significant difference in the determined OC contents in the branch cutting oak coppices forests and pasture lands. The soil in the sampling sites used as a fallow land demonstrates the lowest content of OC – 0.82 g kg-1.

Key words: erosion, forest soil, fallow land, soil skeleton, particle size distribution
2010-299 REGULATED DEFICIT DRIP IRRIGATION IMPACT ON THE YIELD AND THE GROWTH OF THE \'LYULIN\' PRIMOCANE-FRUITING RASPBERRY CULTIVAR
Georgi Kornov 1, Kouman Koumanov 1, Kolyo Kolev 1, Zarya Rankova 1, Snejana Milusheva 1
1 Fruitgrowing Institute, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

Abstract:
The problem of water scarcity deepens all over the world, the agriculture accounting for more than 70 % of the total consumption. The use of irrigation water can be decreased with the introduction of more efficient methods (microirrigation) and technologies (Regulated Deficit Irrigation, RDI). Both approaches were subjected to an eight-year investigation together with the 'Lyulin' primocane-fruiting cultivar. The raspberry crop was chosen because of its good positions on the international market and the short time for the investments to pay-back. The water application rates during the main phenophases – intensive growth, blossom, and fruit ripening – equaled 100 %, 75 % and 50 % of the crop evapotranspiration. The yield varied considerably according to both the meteorological conditions during the vegetation and the health status of the plantation. Compared to the control, only the maximum reduction of irrigation resulted in significant yield decrease. Generally, the regulated deficit irrigation did not significantly affect the growth of the raspberry plants. Based on the results, there is a good reason to suppose that the observed differences between variants are mostly climatic. Other factors as the plantation age and the viral infections propagation should not be excluded, yet. With the "Lyulin" cultivar, the application rates can be reduced to 75 %, and even to 50 % in the phase of intensive growth, without negative effect on the yield and the fruit quality. Under severe water deficit, raspberry crop may be irrigated with a half of the estimated application rates, but only on the basis of an economical analysis.

Key words: drip irrigation, RDI, Rubus idaeus, yield, growth
2010-262 RESEARCH OF CHANGES OF IONIZATION AND METEOROLOGIC FACTORS OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR IN REZEKNE CITY, LATVIA
Andris Skromulis
Rezekne Higher Education Institution, Rezekne, Latvia

Abstract:
The analyze of many scientific literature sources shows the important role of air ions on living nature, especially pointing out the well-mined impact of light negative air ions on human organism. The level of ionization is original indicator of energetic saturation as well as pollution of atmospheric air. In spring, summer and autumn of 2009 were performed measurements of positive and negative air ion concentrations in the air-ground interface of Rezekne city in Latvia. Measurements were taken by portative air-ion counter "Sapfir-3M" (Russia) in 8 different points of Rezekne city thrice per day. The concentrations of positive and negative air ions with mobility factor k ≥ 0,4 cm2/V•s were obtained. Such meteorological conditions like temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and direction, etc. were also entered. The interconnections among ionization and chemical and mechanical pollution of air according to meteorological conditions were analyzed. The greatest concentrations of air-ions were established in mornings, in afternoons they decreased while growth of anthropogen air pollution in city. The unipolarity factor was typically < 1 in mornings but mostly > 1 in afternoons especially in the most polluted city areas where minor concentrations of air ions were detected in general. The measurements of air-ions are not widespread in Latvia and it is novelty of air pollution evaluation in Rezekne city.

Key words: air ions, air quality, urban ecology

2010-263 LAND USE AND LAND DEGRADATION IN THE ROMANIAN TABLELAND REGIONS
Dan Balteanu, Monica Dumitrascu 1, Mihaela Sima 1, Ana Popovici
1 Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
The Romanian tableland area occur both outside and inside the Carpathian Arc (among its divisions), usually between 300 m and 600 m altitude covering around 30 % (69.000 km2) of Romania's surface-area. Regional differences have engendered several types of units in terms of the nature of rocks, altitude and degree of fragmentation. Looking at the evolution of its relief, structure, tectonics and lithology and position towards the Carpathian Mountain Chain, several sub-units have been distinguished: Moldavian Plateau, Getic Plateau, Transylvanian Tableland, Dobrogea Plateau and Mehedinţi Plateau, the largest being Moldavian Plateau (25.000 km2) and the smallest Mehedinţi Plateau (1.100 km2 ). Each relief unit has its own particular features in terms of land use, dynamics and intensity of degradation processes. Being a heavily populated region the environment is subjected to severe human pressure - deforestation, farming and a dense network of communication routes. The aim of this paper has been to analyse the main land use changes and their impact on the degradation of grounds, as well as the characteristic features that differentiate each of these hilly divisions. The post-1990 restructuring processes had a big, sometimes negative, impact on land use (forest clearing, terrain fragmentation, inadequate farming practices, etc.). However, other factors, too (usually landslides, gully erosion and sheet erosion), contributed to enlarging the degraded areas. As damaging proved to be the extreme climatic and hydrological phenomena such as floods, with disastrous effects on vast stretches of agricultural land, settlements, routes of communication and terrains of various destinations. The data sources this paper is based on are the 1990-2007 statistical figures, Corine land Cover data-base for 1990, 2000 and 2006, geomorphological maps and maps of present-day processes (GIS-based landslides susceptibility map), flood hazard maps and field surveys of significant areas.

Key words: Romanian tableland regions, land use, terrain degradation
2010-268 AIR QUALITY IN URBAN AND SUBURBS AREA OF PRISHTINA AND THE IMPACT OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF POLLUTION
Syle Tahirsylaj
Faculty of Mining and Metallurgy and Institute of Meteorology, Prishtina, Kosovo

Abstract:
Abstract: In this study we have taken Prishtina, because it is one of the cities with the biggest number of residents in Kosovo and has a range in the vicinity of 5 klm area near Power Plants kosova A and B,that this region considers as potential air pollutants with PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx, CO. This power plant during technological processes for production of electricity releases a high amount of pollutants in air that risks the health of the population in areas around this stations where as the area under the influence of the pollution from power plants are around 138 actual settlements. We are focused on air pollution with Suspended Partikel meters PM10,PM2.5, and heavy metals in these particles for suburban and urban areas of Prishtina, where we simultaneously measure the meteorological parameters and phenomena in monitoring in order to see how conditions affect meteorological distribution of pollution and how this pollution will reach within the city of Prishtina. PM10 and PM2.5 are measured by continuous automatic monitoring of instrument Sharp 5030 (methods combined nephelometer + beta attenuation) Grimm as well as the volume of low sempler (LVS) Derenda, where particles are collected on the filter then analyzed in AAS (Spektometri of atomic absorption) where heavy metals are determined. Key Words: Quality of air in urban and suburban area, the impact of meteorological conditions in the distribution of pollutants in the air

Key words: Quality of air in urban and suburban area, the impact of meteorological conditions in the distribution of pollutants in the air
2010-386 STUDIES GEOLOGICAL-ENGINEERING ON THE PROCESS OF EROSION OF RIVER LLAP
Sabri Latifi 1, Agim Selmani 1, Sami Haliti 1, Berat Sinani 1
1 Faculty of Mining and Metalurgy, Kosovo

Abstract:
This science paper we are certain factors that are tattle damage the river bed, how can you avoid these factors These factors negatively affect the river water in quality. Soil erosion can occur as a consequence of flows generated by the rainfall in urban areas and leaks transferred from agricultural land and landfills. What impact could this erosion in quality water surface. What are the preventive measures of the earth to erosion priority basin? What may have reinforcement of the river bed? What basic material types used for strengthening the river bed, which are priorities of vegetative zones, etc. As preventive measures to earth erosion basin are: - To avoid debris and obstacles in water leak; - Not jump leaves, grass cutting waste or organic materials near or in water leak. - Create conditions for drainage of water from agricultural land - The construct dumps with fully standards - Forestation etc.

Key words: Water quality, erosion, Llap basin, river bed, water surface
2010-406 EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY IN RESPECT OF ECOLOGY AND GLOBAL WARMING
Mehmet Emin Argun 1, Sukru Dursun 1, Mustafa Samil Argun 2
1 Selcuk University, Turkey
2 Bitlis Eren University, Turkey

Abstract:
The livings are effected different environmental parameters in natural ecosystems. Actually, all interactions between different livings are in a whole harmony. Individual sustainability of a person develops together with the sustainability of the ecosystem. Natural systems are open to external systems, always in alteration and are always dynamics, but also balanced inside with feedbacks. However, it was a long time to reach equilibrium again when its' balance was broken-down. Natural ecosystems are required to sustain of agricultural activities and than to produce healthy products. In this study it was evaluated some parameters for sustaining of organic agriculture such as global warming, balance and harmony, reasonable usage, biological variation, and appropriateness with geography and climate.

Key words: Sustainability, agriculture, ecology, ecosystem, global warming
2010-408 IS DETERMINATED THE FLORA AND VEGETATION OF MIRUSHA (KOSOVO) AND KOLSHI (ALBANIA)
FROM THE SERPENTINE SUBSTRATE AND CLIMATE CONDITION?
Lulazim Shuka 1, Besnik Hallaci 2
1 University of Tirana, Albania
2 NGO, Albania

Abstract:
It is knower thatclimatic condition and substrate composition of ecosystems determine and its flora and vegetation. The serpentine substrate are closely linked with high presence of Mg, Ni, and Cr and low values of Ca and nutrients. Both habitats presented in this study are composed from serpentine substrate. The substrate and microclimatic conditions of Mirusha and Kolshi area have influenced and in species diversity and cover vegetation of their natural ecosystems.Similarities are observed in the presence of relict species like Aristolochia merxmuelleri, Euphorbia glabriflora, Forsythia europaea, Genista hasseriana and Halascya sendtnerii and the main plant communities ass. Orno-Quercetum pubescentis and ass. Polygalo-Forsythietum europaea. The differences are observed in the ocurrence of several rare and endemic species. Composition of species group, plant communities and and changes in endemic plants for both ecosystems are description in this paper.

Key words: Serpentine substrate, climate condition, plant communities, relict and endemic species
2010-410 APPLICABILITY OF VARIOUS EROSION RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS FOR ENGINEERING PURPOSES
Ivan Blinkov 1, Stanimir Kostadinov 2
1 University Ciryl and Methodius, Faculty of Forestry, Macedonia
2 University of Belgrade, Faculty of Forestry, Serbia

Abstract:
Various methods for erosion risk assessment are used by various countries in Europe. Generally, three types of approaches exist to identify areas at risk (Eckelmann et al., 2006): qualitative approach, quantitative approach, and model approach, All these methods vary in their characteristics and applicability. All already developed methods and approaches are improved in the recent period through use of geospatial databases developed using GIS technology. Within the RAM-SOIL project (2006) were evaluate 5 characteristics of the methods: scale, transparency, complexity, cost efficiency and ambiguousness. The choice for a particular model largely depends on the purpose for which it is intended and the available data, time and money (Grimm, Jones, Montanarela , 2002). The most spread erosion type in the East and Southeast Europe as well as in whole continent is water erosion. Objective of this study is to evaluate applicability of these methods for various engineering purposes for water erosion control measures.. For these purpose were analyzed the following methods and approaches: CORINE approach (EEA-1985); the RIVM (1992); "the Hot Spots" approach (EEA - 2000, based on previous maps by Favis-Mortlock and Boardman, 1999; de Ploey, 1989, and other data); USLE method (Universal Soil Loss Equation - Wischmeier & Smith, 1978). The INRA, PESERA approach (Gobin et al. -1999), the European Soil Erosion Model – EUROSEM - (Morgan et al., 1998), Limburg Soil Erosion Model – LISEM - (De Roo et al., 1996a and 1996b; Takken et al., 1999), and Erosion Potential Model (EPM) established by Gavrilovic (1970). The elements for evaluation were scale and outputs (maps and values) and qualitative research method was used. Evaluation was separated per avtivity: agro-engineering, bio-engineering and watershed management. The first output of these methods is map that is useful for preparation erosion control strategies. According to the numeric output and scale, applicability for engineering purposes vary from sector to sector.

Key words: erosion risk assessment
2010-271 DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT
Agustin Gimenez 1, Jose Castano 1, Walter Baethgen 2
1 National Agricultural Research Institute, Uruguay
2 International Research Institute for Climate and society, USA

Abstract:
The objective of this work was to develop some methodologies and tools to integrate a crop monitoring and information system for risk evaluation and management in agricultural production. This information system is mainly based on soils and climate data, satellite images, and simulation models run, and all information is integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The region under study included three Departments (Río Negro, Soriano and Colonia) from the most important agricultural production zone of Uruguay. To carry out this work, an agro-climatic characterization was done, including thirty years of climate observed data. Soil information, including physical and chemical properties of twenty nine different soils, and a landscape characterization was also necessary. Combining climate and soil data, Agro-ecological Homogeneous Zones (ZAH) were defined. Furthermore, to identify the effects of different crop production technologies, the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer, Tsuki et al., 1994) model was used running with three different corn cultivars (large, medium and short cycle), two different nitrogen fertilizer rates (0 and 80 Kg N/ha), two different planting methods (tillage and no tillage) and three planting dates (early, normal, and late). The thirty six crop technology combinations were simulated in twenty nine different soils, and with a climatic database from 1965 to 2006. The crop yields values, resulting from the DSSAT simulation model run, were mapped and integrated into a GIS, and Agro-ecological Specific Zones (ZAE) were defined. This work was part of the project “Desarrollo de un Sistema de Información y Monitoreo para la Evaluación de Riesgos en la Producción Agrícola (SIMERPA) en Paraguay y Uruguay”, funded by the “Fondo Regional de Tecnología Agropecuaria” (FONTAGRO).

Key words: Risk management, Information system, Remote sensing, Modeling
2010-482 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CAUSED BY MINING ACTIVITIES IN KOSOVA
Faton Kaqkini 1, Valmira Sejdiu 1, Florin Hoxha 1
1 Faculty Mining and Metalurgy  in Mitrovica, Kosovo

Abstract:
Kosovo has inherited a large number of environmental problems, accumulated for decades as a result of uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources and mining, industrial production coupled with a high degree of pollution, and the absence of major policies, laws and institutions relevant to address and solve these problems. This has led to a significant degradation and irreparable environmental cases and with it a direct impact on health. Historical moment in which Kosovo is going through, and its orientation to the future of European integration processes, aimed at gradual improvement of its environment and conditions charged with pollution from the past, and hence also improve the health of the population. In this review paper is the likeness of environmental problems caused activity and mining and industrial activity in the territory of Kosovo, such as: - Mining, flotation and Kosovo's main foundry - KEK as the biggest polluter of environment nowadays - Some environmental problems in Trepça - Rehabilitation and closure of industrial waste landfills - Treatment of waters polluted acidic mining - Another problem for the environment are also quarries - Air monitoring system, water and soil around mining and metallurgies spaces in Leposavic, Zvecan, Mitrovica, Tunel i parë, Kizhnicë and Artanë.
2010-739 HYDROGEOLOGIC CHARACERISTICS OF THE REGION DRENOC-RAHOVEC (KOSOVO)
Kreshnike Kozmaqi
University of Pristina, Kosovo

Abstract:
In the municipality of Rahovec hydro-graphic network is relatively good. Natural wealth and this presents one of the conditions for the existence of plant and human world . Hydro-graphic network of the municipality comprise several hundreds of current and sustainable sources. Hydro-graphic research shows that most sources of periodic and permanent karstic.

Key words: water, underground water,Rahvec,Drenoc, water resources
2010-490 COMPARISON OF EROSION INTENSITY MONITORED ON PLOTS WITH DIFFERENT SHAPE
Ivan Blinkov 1, Borce Bojcovski 1, Aleksandar Trendafilov 1, Bozin Trendafilov 1, Ivan Mincev 1
1 UKIM- Faculty of forestry, Macedonia

Abstract:
Various approach, methods and instrumentation for erosion monitoring exist. Erosion intensity can be monitored classical on experimental plots, sedimentation into the reservoir through direct measurement, could be used pins, remote sensing etc. Contemporary approach predicts organizing of sample plots stored as grid cells or on transect. Erosion plot studies were started at the University of Missouri in 1915. Later, network of 10 soil erosion experimental plots was established in 1928. The form of these plots was rectangle. The dimension varies and the Wischmeyer establish standard dimensions 22,1x4 m. Gavrilovic (Serbia) in 1970 established square formed erosion plots having an area of 100 m2 (10x10m). If length of slope is longer then 300 m the output results are not satisfactory. Beside it, these plots are previously aimed fro agriculture land where sheet and rill erosion processes are dominant. Mountain terrain is rough, dissected and these plot form is not enough for getting relevant results. The aim of this study is to compare results of runoff and erosion intensity got from plot with standard form and plot with irregular form appropriate to the terrain. For this purpose were established two experimental plots: one with square form and dimension 10x10m, and the second plot with irregular form stored around small gully. These plots are established on the locality "Parkac" on the Malesevski Planini in East Macedonia on 1000 m asl. This is the mountain region where two years ago were burned about 1000 ha forests. Gullies cover significant part of the terrain. Pluviometer station is near by the plots. Observer check the plots after each rain, notice the level of runoff (level in the barrels) and collect samples for further laboratory analysis of the sediment. The results of this research should contribute to better modeling of the erosion processes in mountain region.

Key words: erosion monitoring, plots
2010-491 EROSION POTENTIAL METHOD (EPM) MODIFICATIONS – RISK OR NEED
Zoran Gavrilovic 1, Milutin Stefanovic 1, Irina Milovanovic 1, Mileta Milojevic 1
1 Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Serbia

Abstract:
Introduction During the past decades, there were numerous modifications of the existing and improved erosion and sediment models. Itch serious and accepted method for erosion and sediment investigation is product of long term field investigation and numerous laboratory tests. All tasks need well experienced staff and state financial support. No one developed method is perfect. All of them have limitations and bugs. That is reason for modification. Today it is very easy trough GIS processing to compute all imputed values and product everything which is looklike needed output. At this moment all over the world exists tens of modifications of Erosion Potential Method (EPM). There are several different types of erosion mapping, for which their authors claim to have applied EPM. Method All available EPM modification is classified into several types; - Modifications which try to change the established limits and purpose. - modifications characterised by a partial or complete modification of the research procedures, input coefficients but with original model - Modifications which change the complete structure of the model and the accompanying coefficients. - modification of the already modified model, Preliminary data shows differences of all analysed modification and original method. The resulting errors led to fruitless investment in several river reservoirs where sedimentation occurred after only several years. In such cases the erosion was underestimated, but there are also examples to the contrary. Novel aspect No one hasn't problem with good modified method. Serious problem is with wrong way modified method. Erosion mapping and following calculation is input data for other experts in the field of planning on a regional and the state level. At this moment new upgrading of EPM is in developing phase. Intention is to speed up research procedure and learning process.

Key words: Soil erosion, erosion mapping, models of erosion calculations
2010-504 EROSION OF THE SAVA RIVERBED IN CROATIA AND ITS FORESEEABLE CONSEQUENCES
Neven Kuspilic 1, Dijana Oskorus 2,  Gordon Gilja 1
1 University of Zagreb, Faculty of civil engineering, Water research department, Croatia
2 Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Rep.Croatia, Croatia

Abstract:
Disrupted processes as riverbed erosion and bottom deepening are part of natural fluvial processes in upper stream. The increasing gradient of this changes is interconnected with level of human influences in river basin and riverbed as well. In time the consequences of the riverbed erosion will become serious as well as dangerous, i.e. it may have an impact on the lowering of the underground water levels in the river basin or threaten the stability of hydro technical structures. This process in not usually visible to the naked eye, it is lengthy and slow, but can be easily detected by analysis of specific types of measurements. The article will show the section of the Sava river from the Croatian-Slovenian border down to the rkm 670+000, where the Drenje hydropower plant is planned. Regular measurements of water levels, discharge, amount of load transport and cross section profiles along this section of the Sava river prove that significant changes in the riverbed have occured in the last 20 years. Because of the deepening of the riverbed, at some locations by more than 3.5 m, the stability of bridges in Zagreb and the surrounding area are especially at risk. As result of unpredictable bottom erosion, the railway bridge Sava Jakuševac damage on 30 Mart 2009 showed that erosion may lead to the wearing away of bridge foundations which in turn is very likely to lead to serious damage to other bridges.

Key words: Bottom erosion, load transport, level of underground water, stability of hydo technical structures

2010-528 FOREST COVER AND MAIN INDEXES OF RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT LOAD OF SHKUMBINI RIVER
Ramazan Saraci 1, Ardian Saraci 1
1 Albanian Community of WASWC, Albania

Abstract:
Shkumbini River is one of the most important river that cross Albania. It is extended on the middle of Albania and gathers water from a basin of 2445 km2 and a length of 181 km.The upper part lays out in the Central Mountainous Region and has form of a valley river. On the lower part flows westward to the Coastal Region and discharges into Adriatic Sea, north of Karavasta Lagoon. Records on runoff and suspended sediment load include the period 1948-1985(37 years). By statistical analysis of the series of water discharges Q and suspended sediment loads Qs for four hydrological stations was possible to attain the relationships between suspended sediment load and water discharge expressed by polinomial equations, with correlation coeficients from 0.63 to 0.87. Also, is determined the relationship between specific supended sediment load qs and mean high of watershed H that indicates the specific sediment load increase by decreasing of mean heigh of watershed, consequently of increase of area covered by eroded rocs from 23% up to 47% in the downstream zone. This relationship serves as a good basis to extrapolate data for calculation of sediment load at parts of watershed without data and for mapping of suspended load . By this graph it is possible to observe also that the annual specific suspended load has an increasing trend with the distance , confirming as the downstream stations give a major contribute to the year suspended volume of sediment.

Key words: catchment basin, specific yield, sediment load,soil erosion
2010-503 DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE SERBIAN OAT CULTIVARS
UNDER AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN BULGARIA
Tonya Gerogieva 1, Plamen Zorovski 1
1 Agricultural University, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Within the period 2006 – 2008 in the experimental field of the Plant growing Department at the Agricultural University – Plovdiv, Republic of Bulgaria a comparative test was carried out with three cultivars of Macedonian oats (Slaruj, Lorken, Rajac) compared to the Bulgarian standard for spring cultivars – "Obraztsov Chiflik 4" Block method was repeated three times. The cultivars were sown in March; sowing rate – 600 germinating seeds per m2. Phenological observations were carried out. The level of tillering as well as other basic elements of productivity formed under the specific agrometeorological conditions of 2006, 2007 and 2008 were found out. The elements of panicle and its productiveness were analyzed. The yield of the tested Macedonian breeds as per 1 da under the weather conditions in Central Southern Bulgaria was also evaluated. The Macedonian cultivars were considered highly adaptive. The Lorken cultivar proved best yield results.

Key words: oat, cultivar, yield
2010-554 ESSENTIAL OIL OF TANACETUM PARTHENIUM (L.) FROM EAST PART OF KOSOVA
Arben Haziri 1, Sevdije Govori Odai 1, Murtezan Ismaili 2, Fatmir Faiku 1, Imer Haziri 1
1 University of Pristina, Kosovo
2 SEE University of Tetovo, Macedonia

Abstract:
The essential oil from leaves of Tanacetum parthenium (L.), obtained by hidro-distillation was analyzed by GC-MS. Out of 25 peaks, 22 components, which constitute 88%, were identified in oil. The main compounds of Tanacetum parthenium (L.) from east region of Kosova, were camphor (63%) and camphene (9.6%). This study demonstrates the occurrence of camphor/camphene chemotype of Tanacetum parthenium (L.) from east part of Kosova. The present work presents the chemical composition of the hydro-distilled oil of Tanacetum. parthenium (L.) from East part of Kosova, and the results are compared to those reported in the literature. After comparison of our date with those reported in literature we can conclude that environmental factors play a role in determining the composition of essential oil of Tanacetum parthenium (L.).

Key words: Tanacetum parthenium (L.), Essential oil, East part of Kosova, camphor/camphene chemotype.
2010-571 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES FOR HISTORICAL PERIOD,
FROM LAST 2000 YEARS, RECORDED IN SEDIMENTS OF LAKE BURDUR, TURKEY. PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Alina Tudryn 1, Elodie Thiodard 1, Piotr Tucholka 1, Omer Oelitok 2, M. Massault 1, A. Poisson 1, B. Platevoet 1, Nevzat Ozgur 2
1 UMR IDES 8148, University Paris Sud, Faculte des Sciences, France
2 Suleyman Demirel University, Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Turkey

Abstract:
This work was realised on recent sediments of the Lake Burdur, near Isparta (SW part of Anatolia). Lake Burdur (30x7 km) is a closed, saline lake at 845 m asl., its surface covers 250 km˛ and its catchment area is of 6150 km˛. During the last 30 years water level of the lake lowered significantly (~15 meters). This processus, the origin of which was not yet studied, can be due to climatic variations, to human activity or to seismic activity, all acting on the local scale as during Holocene this area was strongly populated. On the larger scale, it contributes to the studies of the palaeoclimatic variations of the Earth, particularly in the « Mediterranean-Caspian seas corridor ». In the lately dried up part of the lake, we have taken 3 sediment cores, each 5 m long. Preliminary results of analyses done on these cores show significant changes in the Ca and Mg carbonates content, in granulometry, in clay mineralogy as well as in organic matter content and its isotopic composition (Total Organic Matter, d13C, N). Radiocarbon dating obtained on plant fragments (14C AMS ages) have a good internal consistency all along the analysed sequence, the base of which has been fixed at about 2000 yrs B.P.. The obtained results suggest changes in the lake water level from that time, related to the available humidity and show the indications of processes in the catchment area (for instance intensity of detrital supply and the nature of the vegetation cover) and the conditions in the basin.(salinity, oxigenation of water, biological productivity etc). We have detected a specific, strongly disturbed sedimentary unit, the age of which is well correlated to the earthquakes known for this area from archeological investigations. These earthquakes occured during 6 and 7 th centuries AC.

Key words: lake sediments, Burdur Lake, environmental changes
2010-577 INFLUENCE OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
ON THE ENVIRONMENT OF GRDELICKA GORGE (SOUTH SERBIA)
Miodrag Zlatic 1, Milena Lakicevic 1, Jelena Tomicevic 1
1 Faculty of Forestry, Serbia

Abstract:
As worldwide the major factor in provoking degradation of natural resources in Serbia is the anthropogenic. Special attention in the paper is given to the soil degradation emphasising example of Grdelicka Gorge, being one of the areas most endangered by erosion in Europe in the mid fifties of the last century.The development of erosion processes can be devided into the period until 1950s and from the mid 1950s to the present day. The first period was characterized by the highest agrarian pressure and accelerated erosion. The basic demographic-economic problematics of hilly-mountainous area of Grdelicka Gorge is being reduced to the disproportion between the number of the agricultural population and the soil areas at disposal, i.e. the manner of agricultural production. This disproportion has resulted also in others, such as: the population – number of livestock, the areas – number of livestock, etc. It is however the man to soil, i.e. land use disproportion , that remains as the most important one. The second period was characterized by population migration, large extent of erosion control works, changes in the structure of agriculture production and, as the consequence, the decline of erosion intensity. The high agrarian pressure in investigated area was primarily reduced by migrations. As younger household members migrated, arable fields were left uncultivated, invaded by weeds, and converted into pastures which contributed to diminishing erosion. This cannot be called development. The revival of degraded regions should be based on people remaining in the area and being able to have decent livelihoods. Participation of all stakeholders in sustainable land management and decision making can make it possible. Paper presents demographic trends and influence of anthropogenic factor on the state of erosion processes in the area of Grdelicka Gorge.

Key words: agrarian pressure, erosion, migrations, sustainability
2010-579 FUTURE STATE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE, MITIGATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN BULGARIA
Valentin Kazandjiev 1, Veska Georgieva 1, Milena Moteva 2
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology-BAS, Bulgaria
2 IMSR-AA, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Hydro-meteorological conditions in the country are worsened. The most entire estimate is made from the IPCC 2007. Most of authors proven that the last decades are really warmest for last century, even for the entire period of the most instrumental observations. The main goal of the paper is framing in conditions of the expected climate changes in our country for period 2020-2050-2070 and the most likely impacts on the agriculture with inspection padding to the consequences in them and making physical conditions for development of proof farming in production regions. By the means of the systematized database of agrometeorological data for the period of this survey (1971-2000) we provide assignment of the expected climatic changes according to the different scenarios for the periods until 2020-2050-2070. Recover the growth, development and the productivity of the agricultural crops is realized by means of the simulation models as WOFOST, DSSAT and CROPWAT. We determine regions where agriculture is impossible without irrigation and appropriate crops for low-favored regions. This is in connection of expected changes and it is the base for necessary reconstruction of agriculture in dependence with the real resources in all regions of the country further to the expected climatic changes in 2020-2050-2070.

Key words: climate change, agroclimatic resources, future conditions, 2020-2050-2070
2010-580 PECULIARITIES OF PHENOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF BY CHERRY, PEACH
AND APPLE TREES IN DEPENDANCE OF THERMAL CONDITIONS
Valentin Kazandjiev 1, Petia Sredkova 1
1 National Institute of Mete2 IMSR-AA, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Development of orchard trees depends from agrometeorological conditions and dynamics of weather elements, which are subject of daily observations. Thermal regime and it influence on the agricultural crops and plantations in national and regional scale of investigation are the scientific problem, which is permanently is in the field of vision of agro-climatologists. Many scientific developments in Bulgaria are devoted to climate variability and change of air temperature during the active growing season. As an indicator for characterization thermal conditions in agro climatology is used the period with average daily air temperatures above 10 °C. The steady transition of air temperatures at intervals of 10 °С correspond to beginning of active vegetation for all plants. That is why duration of this period is named real vegetative period (RVP). The existence of relationship between the thermal regime of the environment and the vital activity of crops is on the basis of the duration of inter-stage periods change in dependence of temperature conditions. The aim of present investigation is to find empirical relationships between the duration of inter-stage periods and the temperature sum during the RVP throughout the year (t >10 °C) in the period 1992-1997 for the basic orchard trees (apple, cherry and peach, grown in our country. Investigation of these climate indicators is interesting because of their practical importance for observing seasonal dynamics of natural resources connected with agricultural activity.

Key words: orchard trees, temperatures, phenological development, duration of periods between stages
2010-582 BURGAS PORT AMBIENT WATER QUALITY STATUS
Ivanka Dimitrova 1, Elitsa Angelova 1
1 Institute of Water Problems - BAS, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Burgas port is located in the Burgas Bay that is the largest bay of the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast. It is 41 km at its widest part and 25 m at its deepest, reaching 31 km at its greatest innermost extent, approximately. The salinity of water in the bay is 17‰ and the sand is of magnetite origin. The Burgas Lakes are located in the wetlands to the west. There are several small islands in the southern part of Burgas Bay. The surroundings, land-based and seaport activities in this area have affected more or less all components of marine and costal environment, ecosystem and biodiversity. Since Bulgaria has adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD), it has exerted great efforts to follow the EC Directives and to meet the relative requirements for legislation and institutions in the port region. As a result, considerable progress has been made in the field of environmental protection. With regard to the implementation of the WFD, the fundamental laws/acts and regulations have already been discussed and passed. The River Basin Management Plan and Port Waste Management Plan are developed. All that remains outstanding is their practical implementation. The current ambient water quality status of the Burgas bay and the Burgas port, respectively according to all available historical and current information is evaluated for the first time. The sampling station and the parameters that are determined are given. The generalized data are tabulated and illustrated graphically where the variation of water quality parameters for the period of 2001-2008 could be seen. Finally some conclusions are given. They will be a basis when the environmental management plan according to UNI EN ISO 14 000 series of standards for the port of Burgas will be developed.

Key words: Water pollution, Burgas Bay, ambient water quality
2010-594 SOIL EROSION FROM THE RIVER SIDES
Justina Borici 1, Vangjo Kovaci 2, Klarent Dedaj 1, Zaim Mema 1
1 Centre of agriculture tehnology, Albania
2 Politechnique University of Tirana, Albania

Abstract:
The protection of the soil from erosion is for our country a big problem with high extension and with complex character. The forms of erosion are different and in dependence of factors which are caused. But, the phenomena is present in all the rivers and streams of our country where the losses of the soil are estimated some tens of hectares every year. This phenomena in all the cases is accompanied not only with the loss of the soil but with the failures of the infrastructure in the bottom of the rivers and the embankments around. The problem of soil protection from the erosion in general and especially the protection for eroding the bottom of the rivers especially are the most important that are required today for the protection of the soil. The damages in the rivers bottom are with very heavy consequences in the national economy. These damages are not seen immediately but very often cause serious complications with heavy consequences in the land and in the social life of the communities that are situated in the vicinities of the rivers. The factors that influence are: The slant of the rivers; the immediate turns; the non stable sides of the rivers; the concentration of the rains in different periods of the year; the high coefficient of water flow in surface; the absence of the plants cover. In this study, through monitoring we give an information of the concrete situation of the river's bottom in the soils around them, the factors of this situation, the problems that seek a solution and the measures to be taken. The study has been fulfilled in four river ponds: 1. Drin, Buna, Mat, Shkumbin. 2. Erzen, Tirana River, Tërkuza river, Zeza river and Droja river. 3. Seman, Osum, and Devoll rivers. 4. Vjosa, Shushica and Drino river. From the study results that: endangered soils from the slips and demolitions are 109.000 ha. Destructed and slipping soils are 4000 ha. The erosion of the soil in the river's bottom and sides are present in all the segments of our country. the monitoring shows that for soil losses within a years are some tens of hectars.
2010-601 EROSION PROCESS IN ROGOZNA (SAUTHWEST SERBIA)
Mihailo Ratknic 1, Svetlana Bilibajkic 1
1 Institute of forestry, Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract:
The problems of erosion and soil loss can be traced back to the beginning of agriculture. In recent times, the problem of soil erosion has occured more frequently, due to the increase in population and agricultural pressure. This paper deals with the definition of the condition of the erosion process in Rogozna and calculation of the mean annual erosion sediment yield and discharge. The investigated area covers an area of 58.81 km2. The methology applied in this paper is based on the catrographic, teledetection and empirical methods. By the data obtained by the detailed terrain recognition, analysis of the satelite photos, data on the geological and pedological base, climate factors, as well as data on the vegetation arrangement, the coefficient of erosion (Z) for the area was determined analitically, by the separated hydrological units (watersheds and inter-watersheds) by the methodology of Professor S.Gavrilović. Since the mean coefficient of erosion for the area in Rogozna is Z=0.282, this area can be classified into the Category IV of the destructiveness. According to the type of the erosion surface and combined erosions are dominant, wheras deep erosion is present sporadically. The total sediment yield in the area is W year=17172,32 m3year-1, and mean specific sediment yield is Wspec=291.99 m3 year-1km-2. The quantities of the sediment discharge which refer to the area Medenovac-Karavansalija is V=6796,19 m3god-1, and the specific quantity of sediment, i.e. quantity of the sediment per 1 km2 of area is Vspec=115.56 m3km-2year-1. According to the calcultated coefficient of erosion Z, sediment yield and discharge, the most frequent category of erosion in the investigated area is weak erosion, which is in the accord with the way in which the soil is used (the territory is mainly covered by forest and grass areas).

Key words: erosion processes, coefficient of erosion, sediment yield

2010-645 THE INFLUENCE OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND AIR POLLUTION ON THE RAINFALL REGIME IN B&H
Dzenan Zulum 1, Zeljko Majstorovic 1, Mediha Voloder 1
1 Federal Hydrometeorological Institute, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract:
We studied the rainfall regime during the working week at three sites in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Sarajevo, Tuzla and Ivan Sedlo. Sarajevo and Tuzla are industrial center with a typical emissions into the atmosphere, which is the greatest during the working week, and some decreases over the weekend. Ivan Saddle altitude weather station is outside the urban area. We observed a correlation between the days of the week and the amount of precipitation, with emphasis on the maximum amount of rainfall and the occurrence of showers. It is shown that the correlation is not great but still exists. Minimum rainfall registered during the weekend. The largest increase was recorded at the beginning of the working week and the maxima observed on Tuesday and Wednesday. This is not the case with the number of days with precipitation, which further underscores the importance of the previous conclusion as to naturally expected that these two parameters to a greater statistical correlation. To confirm these results link with the amount of air pollution in these three cells, we compared the results with measurements of air pollution, and obtained a similar correlation.

Key words: rainfall, human activities, air pollution, week
2010-652 IMPACT OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTIES AND IRRIGATION SCHEDULING STRATEGY
ON IRRIGATION SEASON LENGTH
Zornitsa Popova 1, Ekaterina Doneva 1
1 N.Poushkarov Institute of Soil Science, Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract:
The objective is to assess the impacts of several irrigation scheduling alternatives for maize оn irrigation number and season length in a vertisol and a chromic cambisol soils in the Thrace, Bulgaria by application of the formerly validated ISAREG model to the period 1970-2005. Simulation modelling and data from furrow irrigation experiments are used to define the irrigation scheduling strategies aimed at improved water use and water saving in vertisol (TAW=173 mm m-1): (1) refilling the soil reservoir adopting management-allowed depletion fraction (MAD) of 0.60 and application depths 110 mm; (2) refilling the soil reservoir adopting MAD=0.47 and application depth 90 mm; (3) refilling the soil reservoir adopting MAD=0.33 and application depth 60 mm; (4) partially refilling the soil reservoir with 60 mm but adopting MAD=0.47.The irrigation scheduling alternatives generated for surge furrow and sprinkler irrigation in chromic cambisol soil (TAW=136 mm m-1) are (2) and (3) refilling the soil reservoir adopting MAD of 0.60 and 0.40 and application depths 90 and 60 mm and (4) partially refilling soil reservoir with application depths of 60 mm but adopting MAD=0.60. Statistical analyses of results indicate that when maximum yield is aimed at the number of irrigation events ranges from 2 to 4 for alternative 2 and reaches 3 - 6 or 2 - 6 (alternatives 3 and 4) in vertisol. An additional irrigation is required in average/high irrigation demand years in chromic cambisol. The larger are the TAW and MAD the shorter is the irrigation season. When water is depleted from the deeper soil layers (alternatives 2 and 4) average irrigation season is 27 - 32 days in the vertisol and 44 – 45 days in the chromic cambisol. Alternative 3 leads to 43- and 54-day irrigation season on the average in both soils and 62- and 82-day at the most. The season starts earliest in the very dry year, on 8/06 for alternative 3, and ten days latter for alternatives 2 and 4 and between 3 and 17/07 in the years of average/low irrigation demand. The last possible irrigation timing is between 31/08 and 12/09 in the chromic cambisol and between 7 and 14/08 in the vertisol.

Key words: The Thrace plain, Bulgaria, irrigation scheduling, irrigation method constrains, ISAREG model, climate uncertainties, irrigation season length
2010-659 RESEARCH ON THE ATMOSPHERE IN NORTHEASTERN BULGARIA
Rumen Kodzheykov 1, Stiliyan Stoyanov 2
1 Shumen University, Bulgaria
2 Space Research Institute - Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria

Abstract:
The atmospheric total ozone content variations over the North-eastern region of Bulgaria have been observed during the May-August period of 1989. The measurements are conducted above the hydro-meteorological station in the Kaliakra peninsula using a ground-based ozonometer M-124. The experimental data for the total ozone content distribution have undergone processing and and the mean month values have been calculated. A distribution anomaly has been observed during the second half of July, when the trend is negative.
2010-658 SALT MARSHES PLANT DIVERSITY OF COASTAL ZONE IN ALBANIA
Julian Shehu 1, Alfred Mullaj 2, Alban Ibraliu 1
1 Agricultural University of Tirana, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Albania
2 University of Tirana, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Albania

Abstract:
The salt marshes of Albania comprise a narrow belt along the Adriatic and Ionian Seas, with a total length of 476 km from the north to south. They have long been the subject of a range of human activities causing habitat loss. Enclosure for agricultural use, ports and other infrastructure has reduced many salt marshes to a narrow fringe along estuary shores. Salt marshes are important for a range of interests. In particular they support a range of specialist plant communities and associated animals (especially breeding and wintering birds) and often have a high nature conservation interest. They rarely exist in isolation and form an integral part of many estuaries, other tidal inlets and bays. The objectives of this study are flora and vegetation of salt marshes. In this study, on the basis of field surveys, is given a phytosociological classification of the Albanian salt marshes vegetation by the European standard methods of phytosociology (Zurich-Montpellier). The salt marsh communities of Albania are poor in endemism and generally similar to relevant vegetation types elsewhere in the Mediterranean. In all 61 plant taxa were determined from this area. Families with highest number of taxa were Chenopodiaceae, Poaceae, Asteraceae, Cyperaceae, Fabaceae and Plumbaginaceae with dominating genera like: Arthrocnemum, Limonium, Puccinellia, Chenopodium, Plantago, Tamarix and Juncus. The representative species recorded were Arthrocnemum fruticosum, Halimione portulacoides, Halocnemum strobilaceum, Juncus acutus, J. maritimus, Limonium vulgare, Polypogon monspeliensis, Salicornia europaea, Suaeda maritima, and Tamarix dalmatica. Phytosociological analysis evidenced 16 associations, which belong to 4 classes, 5 orders and 6 alliances.


Key words:  habitat loss, salt marshes, flora and vegetation, phytosociological analysis

2010-691 THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF IRRIGATION AND DUNGING IN THE SUGAR-BEET PRODUCTION
Livija Maksimovic 1, Jovan Babovic 2, Marko Caric 2, Stanko Milic 1
1 Institute of field and vegetable crops, Serbia
2 The Faculty of economy and engineering management of Novi Sad, Serbia

Abstract:
The research of production and economic effects of irrigation to the sugar-beet and sugar growth per hectare was carried out on the carbonate humus of favorable water-physical and chemical characteristics on the location of Rimski Sancevi during the period from 2004 to 2006. The experiment was set according to the method of the Split-plot system being done in four repetitions with the usage of raindrop irrigation. During the experiment there were kept humidity soil treatments from 60 to 65% and the field water capacity (FWC) of 75-80% with a controlling variant being included. During a three-year period, irrigation had an influence on the increased sugar-beet growth of 8,2 t/ha and on the sugar growth, because of the increased growth of the root, of 0,9 t/ha. The irrigation effects varied according to sorts from 5,7 t/ha by Sara to 12,1 t/ha by Drena. Dunging levels approximately influenced the growth increase of 8,6 t/ha and varied from 6,8 to 11,0 t/ha (r = 0,960). It was judged that the amount of annual precipitation and temperatures and their disposition significantly influenced the movement and varying of the growth in the observed rainy years. The realized profit per hectare during irrigation is 1607 $/ha and it is approximately greater of 17,6% in comparison with the production in the controlling variant. Economy shows that to a unit of invented capital there is realized 1,49 unit of profit during irrigation or more than 4,2% comparing the production without irrigation. Profitability measured from the point of relationship between profit and incomes is 32,8% during irrigation and it is greater of 6,8% than the production in the controlling variant. The productivity indicator tells us that for one produced tone of sugar-beet during irrigation is approximately spent 1,28 hours of total working time or it is produced 0,783 t/ working hour of sugar-beet.

Key words: sugar-beet, economic effects, irrigation, dunging, growth, profit, economy, profitability and productivity
2010-731 DEPOSITION OF TRANSURANIUM NUCLIDES IN FINLAND FROM THE 1986 CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT – METEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS
Jussi Paatero 1,  Susanna Salminen-Paatero 2, Timo Jaakkola 2
1 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland
2 University of Helsinki, Laboratory of Radiochemistry, Finland

Abstract:
The Chernobyl nuclear accident happened in the former Soviet Union on 26 April 1986. The air parcel trajectories originating from Chernobyl at the time of the accident show that the radioactive plume moved first northwestwards. Over Lithuania the plume separated to two main paths. At altitudes of 750-1000 m the plume continued towards Sweden and Norway. At altitudes of 1500-2500 m the plume turned towards north. The plume arrived in southwestern Finland 27 April at 12 UTC for a release height of 2000 m. Then the plume went across the country north-eastwards and back to Soviet Union. A frontal zone north of this route hindered the plume to reach northern Finland which could have caused catastrophic socio-economical effects on the reindeer husbandry in northern Finland. One third of the country was still covered by snow and even in southern Finland the agricultural activities hadn't started yet. Also the cattle was kept still indoors. This reduced the effects of the accident on agricultural products during the early phase of the accident. In contrast to the 1960's nuclear weapons test fallout, the Chernobyl fallout was very unevenly distributed in Finland. The first release from the reactor explosion contained debris of the reactor fuel including refractory nuclides like transuranium nuclides and 95Zr. These were mainly deposited on a relatively narrow band from southwestern Finland towards northeast. During the air mass passage there was no precipitation occurring in south-western Finland and the nuclides were dry-deposited. A part of these radionuclides were associated with hot particles with a high deposition velocity. It has been estimated that the total activity of 237Np, 238Pu, 239Pu, 240Pu, 241Pu, 242Pu, 241Am, 242Cm and 244Cm in Finland from the Chernobyl accident was 1.1E7, 5.4E10, 3.8E10, 6.2E10, 9.5E12, 8.5E8, 3.7E10, 1.5E12, and 8.2E9 Bq, respectively, decay-corrected to 1 May 1986.

Key words: Chernobyl, deposition, transuranium nuclides
2010-735 IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS ON THE SURFACE WATER CHEMISTRY IN MOUNTAIN AREA
Liliana Iordanova 1, Stefka Blaskova 1
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria

Abstract:
The presented results are obtained through a complex investigation on the water and precipitation quality in the highest part of the mountain. A temporary local monitoring network for surface water quality was established in the examined period (2004-2009). The investigation focused on the upstream sections of the main rivers in the central part of the Vitosha mountain (Bulgaria). The monitoring points (rivers' and precipitation's) are situated above 2000 m. The findings present the background levels of the studied hydrochemical parameters. The predominant anions in river water are hydrocarbonates and sulphates while the predominant cations are calcium and sodium. The measured pH values suggest the pure precipitation's influence on river water in terms of acidity. It is perceivable that the majority of the nitrate concentrations in river water originate in the precipitations. The investigated parameters are in low concentrations and characterize the background conditions in the Vitosha mountain surface and precipitation water. The river water nitrate concentrations are commensurate to the nitrate concentrations in precipitations samples obtained at the Cherni vruh synoptic station. It is perceivable that the majority of the nitrate concentrations in river water originate from the precipitations. The predominant anions in river water are hydrocarbonates and sulfates while the predominant cations are calcium and sodium. The pH of precipitations decreases with increasing of the water temperature due to thermodynamic reasons. The pH of river water enhances with increasing of the temperature up to the reach of normal reaction (pH values).

Key words: surface water quality, precipitation chemistry, background surface water
2010-734 WINTER AIR MASS TRANSPORT AND PRECIPITATION CHEMICAL COMPOSITION IN SOUTH-WEST BULGARIA
Liliana Iordanova
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract:
The purpose of the investigation is to determine the dependency between the precipitations' chemical composition and the origin and trajectory of the precipitating air masses. The local and advective components of precipitation pollution are illustrated through four types of precipitation situations predominating the winter seasons. The contribution of local pollution to the precipitation's composition is assessed through air quality analysis before and after the precipitation. Acid precipitations are an object of scientific and public interest. Basic precipitations, which are polluted precipitations, as well, are not well studied. From long-lived observation in Bulgaria, it is evident that the precipitations in the big cities are predominantly alkaline. The precipitations chemical composition network is geared primarily towards measuring the main anthropogenic factors contributing to acid precipitation. This orientation of the chemical analysis does not help to explain the origin of alkaline precipitations. From this point of view, conducting analysis for the discovery of all chemical elements in samples from a wide spectrum of precipitation situations is paramount. The present work investigates the chemical composition of precipitations in Bulgaria under three types of general atmospheric circulation – WZ, SWA, and NZ according to the classification of Hess and Brezowsky and Mediterranean cyclones in winter. A relationship between the precipitations' chemical composition and the path of the cloud systems was studied. The presence of the main anthropogenic ions in the air leading to precipitation acidity was investigated. The influence of transboundary factors is determined analysing the simultaneous precipitations from the same cloud systems in urban arias and the background regions. The pollution sources in South-West Bulgaria have not been investigated vis-ŕ-vis precipitation chemical composition till now. Nor have there been comparisons between precipitations' chemical composition in urban areas and background stations. The contribution of trans-boundary transport on the precipitation composition has not been differentiated.

Key words: precipitation chemistry, precipitation chemistry and air quality, atmospheric circulation
2010-738 CONSTRUCTION OF CEILING LAYER COAL BASIN SECTOR EAST KOSOVO
Nasur Dervishi 1, Malisor Krasniqi 1, Berat Sinani 1, Fatmir Bytyqi 1, Sabri Latifi 1
1 Student, Kosovo

Abstract:
Systematic survey of the coal basin Kosovo as one of the basins with very large reserves of coal have started 50 years since the last century. The first general data such as geological-structural construction, and palaeontological data have biostratigraphics years since before 1956. This database on the construction of the basin of Kosovo is the result of multi-year research started from 1950, with first drilling performance of intelligence that continue until today. Results of research conducted in many monograph summarized positively assessed by specialists and by many studies, projects and reports stored in the archive of documents research conducted by various institutions. Since a large part of career KOSOVA''surface''run under the river aluvionet Sitnica, required knowledge emerged as the best natural hydrogeologic conditions of deposits in zhavorro-rërore entire career. For this purpose is determined first network discovery wells in 1965 with a limited number. This research network was later expanded in view of the dynamics of career development. Their number is up in 1985 reached up to 65 wells scattered uniform discovery in an area of 4.5 km2. Discovery wells have included space between the concrete bridge over the river north Sitnica, Lismir village in the south eastern border in the west and career surface rail-Kosovska Mitrovica in Kosovo Polje east. Now when the coal reserves from existing mines are White and Mirash end, a need of expanding the mine to the east of Mirash mine, in terms of the Sitnica River, which is also called "the eastern sector. The purpose of this topic is to present the construction and distribution of layers litologjie in this sector, first of all strata of Coal overlay.

Key words: Coal, coal basin of Kosovo, coal surface career, Mirash mine
2010-770 PARTICIPATORY IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT IN ALBANIA
Hairi Ismaili
Ministry of Agriculture, Albania


Abstract:
Albania is located on the eastern shore of the Adriatic sea, south of former Yugoslavia, north of Greece, and west of Macedonia. It is divided into three agro-ecological zones based on climate, soils and vegetation: the fertile coastal plains, the intermediate hilly region, and the non-arable mountain zones.  Annual rainfall varies from 800 to 2,000  mm in coastal areas to 1,600 to 2,000 mm in the hilly regions and up to 3,000 mm in the mountains.  Rainfall is concentrated mainly in the winter, and less than 20 percent of annual rainfall occurs in the six-month  period between April and September.  Crop water deficits between June and August range between 400 and 500 mm that cannot be supplied from soil moisture, making irrigation necessary for adequate crop growth, especially in the coastal areas.
Agriculture was and is Albania's most important sector, presently accounting for over 50 percent of GDP and employment.  Due to the importance of this sector and the need for irrigation, the previous regime made massive investments in irrigation and drainage between 1950 and 1975.  By the end of 1980s, about 420,000 ha of land, representing over 50 percent of Albania's arable land and delivering some 80 percent of its agricultural production, was provided with irrigation facilities.  Drainage was also recognized as a necessity along with the irrigation.  A substantial part of irrigation development is in the coastal plains, where soils are heavy and the land is flat since much of it was reclaimed from swamps.  As winter rain frequently causes waterlogging, extensive networks of drainage have also been developed.
Water Sources. Albania is a water-rich country, with an annual average of 3,080 m3 per capita, the highest in Central and Eastern Europe.  Total run-off equals on average 25.7 billion m3 per year, of which 2 percent or 588 million m3 can be stored in irrigation reservoirs.  This water, together with 450 million m3 diverted from rivers and lakes, constitutes the present volume of 1.0 billion m3 available for irrigation from surface water.
Irrigation and Drainage Infrastructure: System Size and Fragmentation. Irrigation systems are highly fragmented since 55 percent of the irrigation command area is supplied by small systems covering less than 5,000 ha.  Some 653 dams and reservoirs supply water to about 184,000 ha, and 639 pumping stations with some 1,250 electrical  pumps and installed power of about 200,000 kW provide lift irrigation from rivers and lakes for about  78,000 ha.  Run-of-river schemes account for water on some 160,000 ha, with groundwater supplying the remaining 1,000 ha of land under irrigation command. 


2010-522 SOME IMPORTANT CORRELATIONS BETWEEN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCES IN ALBANIA
Hajri Haska 1,  Flora Merko 2, Manjola Salla 3, Janaq Male 4
1 Agency of Environment and Forestry, Albania
2 Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration, Tirana, Albania
3 Agriculturale University, Tirane, Albania
4 Netherlands  Development Organization, SNV, Tirana, Albania


Abstract:
A small, but very beautiful country, Albania, is located on the Balkan Peninsula, on the south eastern part of Europe. There is a population about 4.1 million habitants, capital Tirana.
Albania enclosed from terrestrial, sea, rivers and lakes border. Total long of Albania border is about 1094 km; from them 657 km terrestrial, 316 km sea border, 43 km rivers border and 73 km lake border.
Albania has a lot of water resources including here: seas, rivers, lakes, lagoons as well as underground waters. Most important of them are: i) seas: Adriatic and Joan; ii) lakes: Ohrid, Prespa, Shkodra and Butrinti: iii) rivers: Drini, Buna, Mati, Shkumbini, Semani; Vjosa, Ishmi and Erzeni, and also a lot of  artificial reservoirs. In Albania there are some glacial lakes as Lura and Balgjaj, as well as some lagoons as: Karavasta, Patok and Kune–Vain.
But, in Albania there are many geothermal water resources, and many specialist have studied how to use them, for example for heating buildings, for production of agricultural plants, or for decorative and forest sampling.
Albania has about 1,485 mm precipitation in year, rain and snow forms. Most of precipitation descend from the rivers and flow into the Adriatic Sea. In a year into, the sea, flow 42 milliard m3 water, from which 12.8 milliard m3 corresponding underground water. About 23% of underground water are distributed in all the country and is using from people for different activities.
There are also a lot of kind of natural habitats and ecosystems as: Mediterranean shrubs, broadleaves forests, conifer forests, mixed forests, alpine a sub-alpine pasture ecosystems, meadows, rocks area, marine ecosystems, coastal, lagoons and other wetland area, lakes, rivers, but of course and agricultural area. And all of them have good correlations between the vegetation and water resources.This correlation is more evident near the rivers,lakes,lagoons etc
Around 36 % of total surface of Albania are covered by the forests that means 1,043,158 ha with a total standing volume from 81,334,000 m3. In Albania are 361,568.7 ha (12.58 % against of total Albania surface) Protected Area, according to IUCN criteria.
Flora of Albania results with about 3,250 kinds of vascular plants, about 30% of European's flora, represented from 165 family and 910 genders. In Albania grow up around 30 endemic and 160 sub-endemic species.
Finally, as results of all written above, we conclude that Albania has very good conditions and a good geographical position. Also Albania is very rich with water resources, with various vegetation that grows up very well and there is in continuity a very strong correlation with water resources.


Key words: Albania, resources, water, river, lake, sea, Mediterranean, flora, forest, endemic, vegetation, precipitation.

2010-016  FLOOD RISK FOR NORTH BULGARIA
Nelly Hristova 1, Slav Sarafski 1, Elena Georgieva A
1 Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski"ť, Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract:
This paper presents the parameters of high river's water at north part of Bulgaria - area for agricultural production and urban area. It focuses frequency and volume of high waves during the year and by watershed, duration of high water (by hours) and chronology of flood. The investigation takes spatial distribution for flood risk.

Key words: flood, river, risk

2010-023 CONSIDERATIONS UPON THE DROUGHTS OF OLTENIA AND THEIR EFFECTS
Bogdan Octavia 1, Ion Marinica 2
1 Institute of Geograpfy Bucharest, Faculty of Geography of Tourism, Sibiu, Romania, .   
2 National Administration of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Center Oltenia, Craiova, Romania,


Abstract:
Droughts are extremely complex climatic phenomena determined by a great range of factors as:  atmospheric precipitations, the air and ground temperature, the water reserve in the ground which is accesible to plants, the humidity of the wind (or, to be more precise, the low humidity degree of air also known as the dryness of the air), the evapotranspiration and the wind speed.  Global and regional climatic changes, the anthropic impact on the environment, the irrational use of ground resources led to an extension of the area affected by droughts, to intensifications in the processes of dryness and desertification, and also to the increase in frequency and duration of droughts in certain regions of the world and even of our country. In this paper we analysed the droughts that affected Oltenia after 1987. The frequency and intensity of this phenomena increased proportionally with the intensification of the climatic risk phenomena asociated with the global warming of the atmosphere. In matters of frequency and intensity, the droughts and the early heat waves in the warm season determined a fast-growning aridity especially in the South of Oltenia. These have drastically reduced the agricultural productions playing an essential role in the raising prices of food and daily use products, this raise is strongly related to the climatic risk phenomena. This paper highlights important aspects of tohese phenomena in Oltenia, and we extended our analysis to the droughts of the cold season. The analysis is based on the processing of long data series from meteorological and pluviometric stations in Oltenia and has a crucial importance for the regional climatic evolutions, being of great use to climatologists, meteorologist, agronomists students, those who try to achieve a master or doctor degree and also to those interested in the evolution of the climatic phenomena in Oltenia.

Key words: drought, dryness, heat waves, aridity, desertification, draining, climatic changes, precipitations, average temperatures.
 2010-024 METEOROLOGICAL SITUATIONS THAT GENERATED EXCEPTIONAL DISCHARGES ALONG THE DANUBE RIVER
Ion Marinica 1, Mihai Bocioaca 2, Simona Rusu 2
1. National Meteorological Administration, Oltenia Regional Meteorological Centre, Craiova, Romania
2. National Institute of  Hydrology and Waters Management, Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
For Europe, the undisputed importance of the Danube can be rendered by some general data: Its hydrographic basin surface exceeds 817,000 km2, i.e. about 10% of that of the continent, its length is 2857 km and its mean multiannual discharge is about 6500 m3/s, thus ranking second to Volga river. Romania is the country with the largest surface situated within Danube catchments river basin (97.4%), representing 29% of catchments  river basin.   The water resources of the Danube in Bazias section amount to 173 billion cubic meters (m3), 3,30 billion m3 of which are technically usable resources.  Our analysis aimed at determining those complex meteorological situations at the European continent level that generated exceptional discharges along the Danube river, resulting in severe flooding, causing in turn heavy damages, fatalities, population evacuations and considerable rehabilitation costs. A complex analysis was performed, of statistical-synoptic type and those complex meteorological situations were identified that determined the occurrence of such disasters.  Discharges and levels of the Danube  river were used along the whole measuring period, data from the archive of the National Meteorological Administration, and data, map and image archives from Wetterzentrale (Kartenarchiv, NCEP, NCAR, AVN etc.). The complex meteorological situations at the level of the European continent that generated exceptional discharges along the Danube river correlate with intense cyclonic activity, of both the Icelandic and the Mediterranean cyclones, with the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation and with decreasing or minimum solar activity (according to data from NOAA's Space Environment Center).  The most disastrous floods occurred in the spring of 2006. The paper is important for meteorologists, in their weather forecasting activity, for hydrologists, in their hydrological forecasting and for the organizations involved in the flood management. 

Keywords:  discharges, flood, forecast, North-Atlantic Oscillation

2010-060 THE FLOOD SITUATION OF ASSAM -  A CASE STUDY
Mukul Chandra Bora
Dibrugarh Polytechnic, Lohowal, India

Abstract:
The problem caused by water may broadly be catagorised into two major groups' viz. shortage of water and surplus of water. Shortage of water causes drought and surplus water causes flood. The water is the vital ingredients for the survival of human being but sometimes it may cause woe to the human not due to insufficient water but due to abundant water which in turn causes the natural disaster called as flood. Assam is situated at the easternmost part of India. Geographically it is at the foothills of the Himalaya. Every year Assam experiences a huge amount of losses due to devastating flood caused by the river Brahmaputra. The losses are more in few places like (Majuli, biggest river Island), Dhemaji, North Lakhimpur, Dhakuakhana and few places of Barak valley in Assam. The problem of flood is very old in Assam and the solution is very much difficult due to complex and devastating nature of the River Brahmaputra. Both short term and long term measures are sometimes failed to mitigate the losses caused by flood. This paper presents the case study on the losses in terms of livestock, human lives and that in terms of property that have taken place in some district of Assam.

Key words: Disaster, Water, Loss of property,  Huam lives

 

2010-073 THE ANALYSIS OF THE HYDRO-CLIMATIC RISK PHENOMENA IN THE IALOMITA-BUZAU AREA
Mihaela Borcan 1,  Mihaela Bujor 1, Mihai Retegan 1
1 National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Bucharest, Bucuresti, Romania


Abstract:
The analyzed river basins (the Buzau – Ialomita hydrographical extent area) covering an area of 15614 km˛, are located on the outside of the curvature of the Carpathian Mountains, in an area where the altitude varies from 6 m to 2505 m. In accordance with the altitude, the annual precipitation varies from 400 mm/year in the plain area to 1400 mm/year in the mountain area. On the other hand, due to a very high variability of weather conditions, droughts as well as excessive rainy periods may occur during the year. This area's climate is temperate - continental, but because of the variety of landforms there can be distinguished three main climate types: mountain, hill and plain. The average annual temperature is 11.8şC, with a registered highest temperature of +44.5şC (Ion Sion Weather Station, Braila County, 10th of August 1951) and a lowest temperature of - 38.5şC (recorded at Omu Summit Weather Station, in February 1929). The paper focuses on specific hydro-climatic events which are generally considered as being threatening, that is droughts and floods in the Buzau-Ialomita hydrographical area. The period of time we have analyzed is represented by the past two decades, in which we have encountered an increase both in frequency and intensity of these phenomena, droughts and extreme rainy events becoming stronger and longer.
The flood frequency has increased mainly because of climatic variations but also because of the fact that many villages have emerged in areas that are naturally flooded by rivers.
   
Key words: hydro-climatic phenomena, hydrographical space, discharge, Angot index

2010-099 ON THE RISK ASSESSMENT OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SOME WEATHER HAZARDS OVER BULGARIA (1991-2008) - METEOROLOGICAL APPROACH
Liliya Bocheva 1, Petio Simeonov 1, Ilian Gospodinov 1
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, BAS, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Severe convective storms (SCS) produce such dangerous weather phenomena during the warm half of the year like heavy and very intense rainfall, thunderstorms, hailfall, which are often associated with gusts of strong up to violent wind (sometimes with such dangerous events like squall and tornado). From meteorological point of view these events are defined as small-scale severe weather phenomena (SCSWP). These SCSWP are sparse in space and time and have unfavourable influence on the economics and societies especially in the small countries causing significant property and infrastructure damages as well as losses of life. According to the WMO experts about 90% of natural disasters are due to weather, climate and water. The present investigation is based on proper selection of SCS and associated with them severe and hazardous meteorological events like heavy (30-59.9 mm/24h) and torrential (totals ≥60 mm/24h in one station are considered) precipitation, wind (speed ≥20 m/s), hail and thunderstorms in six different parts of Bulgarian territory. Their monthly and seasonal distribution is obtained, as well as the risk assessment of their occurrence for short periods during each season and each region. The frequency of the days with torrential rainfall (Q≥60 mm/24h), extended thunders and hailfall, and wind have been analyzed separately. Statistically significant increase (about 30-50%) of days with torrential 24-hours precipitation is revealed during the period of investigation (1991 – 2008) in central and east parts of the country, while in South-West Bulgaria these dangerous events decreases with about 20-35%. The increase in frequency of stormy days in the autumn months September and October is observed almost in all parts of the country.

Key words: extreme precipitation, thunderstorms, hail, flood events
2010-107 FLOOD RISK IN SLOVAKIA
Katarina Cipovova
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovakia

Abstract:
Adoption of the “Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risk” proves that flood protection is one of the most important tasks for all the governments in EU. This directive requires creating effective tools, which will provide information about the flood risk and help decision-making in flood management. In accordance with that directive it is necessary to create flood hazard maps and flood risk maps showing the potential adverse consequences associated with different flood scenarios, including information on potential sources of environmental pollution as a consequence of floods. In Europe, there have already run some projects, which deal with the directive 2007/60/EC, but in Slovakia, we are just on a very beginning. Flood protection in Slovak Republic is usually being solved like a case-studies, research projects or scientific and technical projects. In present, there are few pilot projects implementing the directive and creating flood hazard and flood risk maps for several places. Present tool for flood risk management is so-called “risk analysis” based on principles of the probability theory, mathematical modeling and classification of the endangered area according to the type of economic activity. The aim of this paper is to describe the present situation in analyzing flood risk in Slovakia, legislation dealing with flood protection and the possible procedure of creating flood risk maps in Slovakia.

Key words: flood, risk, flood risk map, flood risk management

2010-134 WATER SCARCITY AND DROUGHTS MANAGEMENT IN SPAIN
Alberto Rodriguez Fontal
Ministry of Environment, Spain

Abstract:
The Special Action Plans include: i) Geographic zoning of the river basin, essentially along the lines of Water Usage Systems, a traditional device that has been maintained in present water management legislation. ii) A system of hydrological indicators for characterizing drought severity, defined in four phases which are, in increasing order of severity: normality, pre-warning, alert and emergency. iii) The basic indicators are: reservoir levels, piezometric readings – which take account of aquifer reserves –, runoff data in certain parts of the system and rain gauge readings, as well as indicators of water quality or environmental effects. iv) The above indicators have been grouped into different categories: by their purpose (warning, effect and efficiency indicators), type of PES measurements involved (forecasting, operating and organizational and management indicators) and by the availability of information (initial and potential indicators). v) Following a similar procedure in all basins, all the drought indicators were converted into dimensionless values ranging from 0 to 1 (status index). One task – based on the analysis of historic droughts and hydrological simulation techniques – that proved to be highly complex was the definition of the "threshold values" of the indicators used to characterize drought and measure its severity.

Key words: Droughts, Management, Plans

2010-149 STORM SEWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS IN URBAN AREAS AND FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT
Cvetanka Popovska 1, Milorad Jovanovski 2, Dragan Ivanoski 1, Igor Pesevski 2
1 University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Hydraulics, Hydrology and River engineering, Skopje, Macedonia
2 University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia

Abstract:
The urbanization changes the hydrological regime of urban streams as sites are cleared and natural vegetation is replaced by impervious cover such as rooftops, roadways, parking lots, sidewalks, and etc. One of the consequences is that more of a stream's annual flow is delivered as storm water runoff rather than baseflow. Depending of the watershed impervious cover, the annual volume of storm water runoff can increase by up to 16 times that for natural areas (Schueler, 1995). Together with the human activities related to land use practices, improper maintenance and management, as well as climate change impacts, the flood issue is recognized as complex problem in flood control and protection measures in urban sites and associated ecosystems.
This paper will present a case study on frequent flooding, hydrological analysis, and hydraulic modeling of existing storm sewer system of Prishtina airport in Kosovo. Availability, suitability, and quality of hydrological, meteorological, geomorphic, topographic, maintenance and management data are discussed. Some results from frequency analysis of storm events in the region, as well as the results obtained by hydraulic modeling using HEC-RAS are presented. Flood risk maps have been created, flood risk analysis was preformed and measures against flooding of the runway and surrounding terrain were proposed.

Key words: storm drainage system, runoff, culverts, flood mapping, hydraulic modeling, flood risk assessment

 

2010-181 IMPACT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON FLOOD EVENTS IN BRAHMAPUTRA BASIN IN INDIA
U.C.Sharma 1, Vikas Sharma  2
1 Centre for natural resources menagement, Jamu, India
2 Sk University of agri. sciences and tecnology, Jammu, India

Abstract:
The Brahmaputra basin extends to four northeastern states of India viz. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland. The Brahmaputra river drains 1.94 x 105 km2 area with an average annual flow of 537.2 km3 of water at an annual average of 17040 m3 sec-1. The basin is endowed with rich resources of water, soil and vegetation but their indiscriminate use has rendered them in a fragile state. About 455.1 Mt of soil is lost every year through erosion and this huge quantity of soil, along with runoff, takes away large amounts of absorbed and dissolved crop nutrients to different sinks. Due to heavy soil erosion, about 72370 km2 area or 36.1% of the total geographical area has degraded, with irreversible damage at some places. The major activities through which the human interferences induce floods in the basin are; prevalence of shifting cultivation involving 14660 km2 area, land tenure system, free range grazing, urbanization, deforestation, construction of roads and mismanagement of rainwater. The human activities help in generating heavy sediment load in runoff, resulting in silting of river bed, causing floods in the plains. A multidisciplinary long-term study was undertaken with seven land use systems, including shifting cultivation. The methodology for estimating the possible deposition of eroded soil and associated nutrients from the Brahmaputra basin is primarily based on determining the loss of soil and the deposition at different places by quantifying the sediment and nutrients load in the runoff. Soil loss from erosion was estimated through monitoring gauges installed at the exit point of each watershed. Total soil and nutrient load was estimated as a product of soil loss from the gauged areas of watersheds studied, extrapolated to the total areas of the basin, taking into consideration slope, rainfall, vegetation and clay content of the soil.

Key words: Human activities, flood events, Brahmaputra basin in India

 

2010-171 FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT – A BASIN APPROACH FOR ESTIMATION OF THE MAXIMUM WATER DISCHARGES
Evelin Monev
Institute of Water Problems - BAS, Sofia,Bulgaria


Abstract:
Basis of the proposed approach is the theoretical definition of the concept "Flood risk". It is demonstrated in the paper that the probability component in the flood risk is equal to the probability of water discharge to be largest or equal to given value. When the goal of the investigations is flood risk estimation in the whole river basin (or whole river length), it is obviously necessary to complete the calculations in a great number of river points with the same probability of the discharges. It is known that the equal probability values of the discharge change with the length of the rivers. However, these changes are known only in the points of hydrometrical stations. Another problem rises from the boundary condition of the hydraulic differential equation calculating for determination of the water levels in short river parts. Usually the calculation are made under condition of a constant water discharge value in every consecutive part. In the large river strictest these approximately constant values are different. An applied methodic for decision of these problems is given in the paper. It is supported by statistical methods of water discharge probability calculations by means of available data and estimation of theirs values, and probabilities in cases without direct observations.


Key words: Flood risk, probability, river strictes, irregular flow, water level, flooding areas

2010-174 FLOOD FORECASTING AND FLOOD CONTROL IN TURKEY-BULGARIA CROSS BOUNDARY COOPERAION REGION
Ismail Tuncok 1, Michal Veverka 2
1 DHI, Turkey
2 DHI, Czech Republic

 

Abstract:
Implementation and operation of the Maritza River Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) by a team of experts led by DHI Water&Environment&Health will result in significant improvements of State Hydraulics Works of Turkey's (DSI) ability to prepare for, fight and warn of floods. The important features of the FFEWS include the following:
 • Improve precision and reliability in the decision making process by incorporating data acquisition system, forecasting technology/transfer and stakeholder requirements while addressing regional and national flood preparedness goals,
 • Improve ability of DSI to meet current and future requirements for flood management and flood protection
 • Improved interoperability of FFEWS in the shared Maritza basin, and
 • Provide benefits to overall flood management in the basin, and provide a model of collaborative flood management in transboundary rivers.


Key words: Flood Control, Flood Forecasting, Maritza
2010-225 FLASH FLOODS IN CZECH REPUBLIC IN SUMMER 2009
Marjan Sandev
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Komorany, Czech Republic

Abstract:
At the turn of June and July 2009 a bigger part of Central Europe was under influence of cyclonic situation accompanied by intesive thunderstorms. Heavy convective precipitation occured in many places of Czech Republic. As a consequence of that, some places was affected by disaster flash floods. 15 people died and total damage was calculated on 8,4 miliard Czech crowns (about 325 million Euros).

Key words: Flash flood
2010-228 VERY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN ON THE BULGARIAN BLACK SEA COAST IN LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN: EXAMPLES AND ANALYSIS
Gergana Kozinarova 1, Anastasiya Stoycheva 1, Ilian Gospodinov 1
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

Abstract:
It has been found that the Bulgarian Black Sea coast sees increased number intense precipitation events in late summer/early autumn probably connected with global climate change. In this work we will focus on some cases with heavy rain on the Black sea coast which happen during the late summer or early autumn. All of them are very local event related to coastal and orographical effects.  We make the analyzing of the weather conditions favoring the development of such systems. We use data from synoptical and climatological national weather set, satellite and radar imagery, model analysis and forecasts, some applications, information from the media. This study will help to improve the short range weather forecast of the Bulgarian National service for the Black Sea coast in late summer/early autumn.

Key words: heavy rain, forecasting, coastal effect, climate

2010-237 MATHEMATICAL CONSIDERATION OF FLOOD RISK
Dragan Isailovic 1, Stevan Prohaska 1, Aleksandra Ilic 1
1 Institute for the development of water resources Jaroslav Cerni, Serbia

Abstract:
Various engineering and infrastructure systems, as well as urban areas and agricultural lands are prone to flooding by the adjacent rivers, which can endanger their existence and performances. To protect valuable goods and human lives, protective structures of high cost are constructed (spillways, river channels, embankments etc.). The capacity of these structures represents a compromise between required safety and cost of construction. Common engineering practice is to select the structure's capacity, which can provide a protection from extreme floods that can be exceeded with relatively small probability p. Probability, p, is either defined by law or by engineering judgment on acceptable risk depending on the value of protected goods. Theoretically speaking, the return period of flood event, T=1/p is, an average time between two consecutive floods corresponding to the given probability, p. However, there always exist a risk that the design flow will be exceeded X times (X ≥ 1) in a period of n years (n is the period of construction or life-time of the system). Usually, n is considerable smaller than the return period, T. For that reason it seams reasonable to assess the risk to which the systems/goods are exposed. This paper describes a mathematical model for evaluation of risk. Considerations presented herewith rely upon the commonly used probabilities of the design flood, p, which are routinely calculated in many design reports. In addition to the mathematical formulation of the risk, the paper gives graphical presentation of the risk for return periods most frequently used in engineering practice.

Key words: peak flow, flood, probability, return period, risk
2010-239 FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RAILWAYS IN AUSTRIA
Thomas Nester 1, Andreas Schabel 2, Ulrike Drabek 1, Robert Kirnbauer 1
1 Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
2 Institute for Railway Engineering, Transport Economics and Cableways, Vienna University of Technology, Austria

Abstract:
In August 2002 a passenger train was stopped by a flood wave at the river Salzach between Werfen and Golling (Salzburg). In August 2005, railway tracks were destroyed by a flood in Western Austria and caused a freight train to derail, in the east of the country floods along the river March (Lower Austria) set railway tracks under water. As a consequence of these events, the Austrian railway company decided to establish a warning system in which existing forecasting models were included. A pilot project of such a warning system showed that an effective flood warning could have been issued in sufficient time for the 2002 event in Salzburg. As existing warning systems supply forecasts for gauges along the river, this information has to be transferred to critical locations along the track. Therefore, the identification of dangerous sections along the railway tracks had to be carried out in a first step. This was achieved by combining data from different sources in a GIS application. The forecasted runoff was combined with additional steady and unsteady hydraulic river stage simulations taking into account the contribution of the catchment area between the gauge and the critical location to calculate critical water levels along the reach for the event of August 2002. This method was then used to identify endangered parts in the entire Austrian railway network.

Key words:  flood warning system, hydraulic simulation, GIS
2010-240 REAL TIME HYDROLOGIC FLOOD FORECASTS FOR THE DANUBE TRIBUTARIES IN AUSTRIA
Thomas Nester 1, Ulrike Drabek 1, Dieter Gutknecht 1, Robert Kirnbauer 1
1 Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Vienna University of Technology, Austria


Abstract:
In 2002, a 100 year flood at the Austrian Danube and some of its tributaries has caused significant damage. As a consequence and to fulfil future flood management strategies flood forecasting systems were developed for several Danube tributaries in Upper Austria and Lower Austria. The forecasting model shown includes all Austrian Danube tributaries and has been in operational use since 2006. The paper gives a general overview of the hydrologic flood forecasting model for the Danube tributaries. Runoff is estimated for all tributaries to the Austrian Danube with a total size of more than 90.000 km˛. The model is based on a conceptual water balance model. The catchments are divided into sub basins with sizes ranging from 25 km² to 42.000 km˛ according to on-line available gauging stations. Hourly data from 90 discharge gauges from 2003 to 2009 were used to calibrate the runoff in the catchments. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Austrian Meteorological Service as areal mean values for the same period. MODIS-Data are used to verify the output of the snow routine. Simulation results from different calibration periods are shown. Hydrologic forecasts are based on meteorological forecasts, also provided on an hourly basis by the Austrian Meteorological Service. Both deterministic and ensemble forecasts cover a time span of 48 hours. A real time updating procedure based on ensemble Kalman filtering is implemented to have the best state variables of the model at the beginning of an event. The results of the hydrologic forecasting model provide the basis for a hydraulic 1D-model of the Danube river.

Key words: real-time, hydrologic flood forecasting

2010-199 EXTRAORDINARY RAINFALLS AUTUMN 2008 IN ROME
Franca Mangianti De Angelis
CRA-CMA, Roma, Italy

 

Abstract:
In autumn 2008 in Rome, as in large areas of Italian territory, have been recorded unusual precipitations that in some cases have been extraordinary . In the considered period the events occurred have been recorded strong intensity and short duration. These characters of persistent precipitations caused human being losses, and flood in the main and secondary reticulum of the river basin of Tevere. In this paper pluviometric data of about forty stations located ,in homogenous way, in the roman area have been studied. These data have been compared with the historical reference series of the Observatory Roma Collegio Romano .The quarter year under investigation is the fourth most rainy one of complete series (from 1782), while the December month results the third most rainy one, in the same period. Have been studied, moreover, the precipitations hourly scansions and the sequences of more one day precipitations. This analysis has showed repeating events of down- pour, that interested as limited areas of territory, the western part of town (17 events of 13 October and November), as large areas of the town (28 event of October), where the critical threshold has been exceeded in twelve stations. The pluviometric data of 11 December recorded is the maximum every day precipitation of the entire historical series. The aim of this study is to supply useful information and tools, so that, for future similar events, can be possible to plan actions and operations of maintenance for nets of water-drainage in city area in order to reduce damages and risk of flood.

2010-201 SPI AS AN INDICATOR OF DROUGHT IN SOUTH BULGARIA
Vesselin Alexandrov 1, Stanislava Radeva 1
1 NIMH - BAS, Bulgaria

Abstract:
During the years an increase of the number of extreme natural events has been observed all over the world. Drought in Southeastern Europe is among the extreme events, which might have significant negative impacts on the most socio-economic sectors. Drought in Bulgaria is in details assessed in Bulgaria, but being a problem of vital importance, is continuously considered with enhanced attention. 50 years time series of precipitation, collected from 20 weather stations located in the plain regions of South Bulgaria are used for SPI calculation with the purpose to detect drought periods and intensity. Some trends in drought frequency are analyzed. This study is implemented under the activities dedicated to the Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe.

Key words: Bulgaria, drought,SPI
2010-213 FLOODS IN SERBIA IN 1999 – 2009. PERIOD – HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FLOOD PROTECTION MEASURES
Ana Milanovic 1, Marko Urosev 1, Dragana Milijasevic 1
1 Geographical Institute Jovan Cviji' SANU, Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract:
In some regions of Serbia increased flooding have been recorded in the past decade. In this paper several statistical methods will be applied in order to determine maximum water level and discharges on rivers in Serbia, in which river basins were recorded the biggest floods - Vojvodina region and some areas in central Serbia (Šumadijski, Zlatiborski, Moravički i Raški district). It will be tried to determine the main floods causes (precipitation, disorderly river regime etc) in the specified period. Based on available hydrological data, using Pearson function of III type method, hydrological analysis of maximum water level and discharge in selected rivers and statistical probability of their occurrence will be done. Also, using comparative analysis with the measured values of high waters, scale of these floods will be established. In a special chapter will be discussed existing flood protection measures in these regions and suggestions for their improvement.

Key words: floods, maximum water level and discharges, hydrologic analysis, flood protection measures
2010-251 CREATION OF FLOOD HAZARD MAPS
Snezhanka Balabanova 1
1 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Flood events are a part of nature. They have existed and will continue to exist. Society has become more vulnerable to natural hazards. Although floods are natural phenomena, human activities and human interventions such as urbanization, agricultural practices and deforestation, have considerably changed the situation in river basins. The probability of flooding is expected to increase: the climate is changing rapidly. The recent floods, in Europe caused casualties and caused a damage amounting to several thousand million Euros in many countries. The European "Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks" aims to reduce the adverse consequences on human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in the Community. Flooding results in damage of property, crops and negative impacts on human welfare. That is why it is important to know the zones along the rivers reaches which are vulnerable to inundation. For this reason it is of great importance to have hydraulic modeling of discharges and water levels along these rivers terraces. The output data for the high water levels from the hydraulic modeling can be integrated in GIS environment. Different methods for spatial analyses are way for floodplain mapping. For adequate evaluation of the inundation risk it is necessary to simulate hydrological scenarios for max water discharges with different return periods and create corresponding flood maps. Highly accurate DEM is required when developing flood maps. Satellite image processing and analyses of the extent of the flood are very important for verification and validation of the hydraulic models outputs. GIS allows analysis of flooded areas with information on infrastructure, land use, population density or any other information stored in the users GIS. Flood maps are indispensable tools to provide information about hazards, vulnerabilities and risks, and to implement the necessary preventive and preparedness measures.

Key words: flood hazard
2010-260 FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR THE MARITSA AND TUNDZHA RIVERS
Arne Roelevink 1, Job Udo 1, Georgy Koshinchanov 2, Snezhanka Balabanova 2
1 HKV consultants, The Netherlands
2 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria

Abstract:
Climatic and geographical characteristics of Maritsa and Tundzha River Basins lead to specific run-off conditions, which can result in extreme floods downstream, as occurred in August 2005 and March 2006. To improve the management of flood hazards, a Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System was set up. This paper describes a forecasting system recently developed in cooperation with the National Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology (NIHM) and the East Agean River Basin Directorate (EARBD) for the rivers Maritsa and Tundzha. The system exits of two model concepts: i) a numerical, calibrated model consisting of a hydrological part (MIKE11-NAM) and hydraulic part (MIKE11-HD) and ii) a flood-forecasting model and system. For some basins both meteorological and discharge measurements are available. These basins are calibrated individually. The hydraulic models are calibrated based on the 2005 and 2006 floods. The hydrological and hydraulic models are combined and calibrated again. The flood-forecasting system (using MIKE-Flood Watch) uses the combined calibrated hydrological and hydraulic models and produces forecasted water levels and alerts at predefined control points. The system uses the following input: · forecasted meteorological data (based on Aladin radar grid), · measured meteorological data · calculated and measured river discharges · calculated and measured water levels. Depending on the available input the forecast lead-time is short but accurate, or long but less accurate.. If one of the input data sources is not available the system automatically uses second or third order data, which makes it extremely robust. A data assimilation routine is used to update calculated water levels and discharges at the inflow points with the observed data and to correct during the forecast period. A Data Exchange Tool (DET) disseminates relevant information between the databases of NIHM and the EARBD, the flood forecasting system and a website that shows forecast bulletins.

Key words: forecast, floods, MIKE11 model, hydrological modeling, data assimilation
2010-306 Case Study on Culvert Analysis for Road Flood Protection
Bojan Pelivanoski 1, Cvetanka Popovska 2, Dragan Ivanoski 2
1 Student on Hydraulic Engineering Course at the University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia
2 University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia,

Abstract:
Frequent roads and highways flooding can be referred mainly to design gaps and insufficient maintenance. In addition, damage to culverts usually results in a full or partial washout or misalignment of the culvert. These damages may be due to insufficient design capacity or end treatments, inadequate slope protection, inadequate erosion protection, or inadequate protection from stone and woody debris. Careful determination of the cause for the damage is necessary, as different causes require different mitigation or repair measures.

This paper deals with case study on culverts at regional road P-605 near Strumica in Macedonia.  The seasonal storm events recently caused flooding of the road section at constructed box culvert to pass the water flowing from upstream torrent watershed. So, first step in identifying the causes was to check the design and to do site visit. Hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the section along the gully upstream and downstream of the road and the culvert was missing. This paper will present some results out of these analyses.     

Key words: culvert, steep slope, erosion, backwater, protection maintenance
2010-314 WINTER FLOOD IN THE DAUGAVA RIVER AND ITS FLOODPLAIN LAKES (LATVIA) -
A POSSIBLE SCENARIO IN CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT
Jana Paidere 1, Davis Gruberts 1, Arturs Skute 1, Ivars Druvietis 2, Renate Skute 1
1 Daugavpils University, Latvia,
2  University of Latvia, Latvia

Abstract:
In 2007 January, in the Daugava River (Latvia) and its floodplain lakes uncharacteristic high water level (winter flood) was observed and a high temperature. In accordance with researches increasing of such winter precipitation and temperature in Latvia promote and further will be constrained with climate changes. A research purpose was to look after and to forecast, what kind will be changes of plankton organisms in such cases collecting plankton samples and taking physicochemical measures of water in the Daugava River and in its largest floodplain lakes. It was established, that the Daugava River and the floodplain lakes mainly dominated by various kinds of blue-green alga (in the main, Oscillatoria) and characterised by considerably large biomass, especially Kosha Lake. Zooplankton abundance and biomass between lakes and river was various. Mainly such taxa as Keratella cochlearis, Synchaeta sp., Polyarthra sp., Bosmina longirostris, Cyclopoida and nauplii prevailed, and Kellicottia longispina in a lake Kosha respectively. Zooplankton might respond differently to hydrological and temperature variability depending on the lake nutrient enrichment, lake morphometry and other conditions. Along with the existing trends of climate change, such hydrologic and weather conditions are expected to be observed more frequently in the floodplain of the Middle Daugava. Therefore, more frequent blooming of the blue-green algae during the winter low water period as well as a significant reduction of water quality in the Daugava River at Daugavpils is expected.

Key words: winter flood, floodplain, plankton
2010-315 THE IMPORTANCE OF FLOOD ZONING USING GIS A CASE STUDY FROM MACKA, TRABZON, NORTHEASTERN TURKEY
Ibrahim Gurer 1, Ibrahim Ucar 1
1 Gazi University, Turkey

Abstract:
Abstract:
From the viewpoint of damages on humans, flood disaster is one of the most important meteorological hazards. During 2009, 86 floods have occurred and 66 people have died in Turkey. Ministry of Environment and Forestry declared that flood risk maps of Turkey should be prepared at once and year 2010 has been declared as a "struggle year against the flood hazards" to publicize the danger. In this study, a flood analysis performed by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and a hydraulic model HEC-RAS, for Macka town center, located in Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey is presented. Degirmendere River floods the Macka town, and Degirmendere Basin is surrounded by high mountains (maximum attitudes 3080 m) and the size of drainage area is 1052 km2 and the length of the main branch is 60 km. Eastern Black Sea Region has the highest long term mean annual precipitation in Turkey about 2200 mm. The soil mantle is mostly saturated due to heavy rainfall and the geomorphologic slopes are very steep. Therefore not only floods but also many landslides occur frequently. For example in 1988 at Catak Village of Macka, 64 people died because of landslide. The last big flood of 1990 caused 47 human losses in and around Trabzon city. At Macka town most of the buildings are located at the banks and flood zones of river due to the limited plain area for urban settlements. Therefore there is very high risk of frequent flooding at the location. For example if water level in the river rises 2m, a large part of the city is flooded. In this study the annual peak flows for different return periods such as 10, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years are estimated from available flow data and 3-D model of the possible flood zones are defined by using GIS different flood scenarios. 3-D models are prepared by using GIS from 1/1000 scale maps and necessary structural measures to control flood events are presented.

Key words:  Flood Mapping, Macka,Tarbzon,Turkey, Flood Protection Measures
2010-323 URBAN FLOOD BY EXTRAORDINARY SEVERE RAINFALL IN SMALL RIVER BASIN
Tokuo Kishii 1
1 Kanazawa Institute of Technology, Japan

Abstract:
The big flood was occurred by the extraordinary severe rainfall in the urban area of the middle part of Japan in 2009. One of the cause of severe raifalls is estimated by the effect of the climate chang. The rainfall amounts over 140 mm per hour caused the big flood and affected severe flood damages in the urban area of the down stream of the small river. The runoff analysis is carried out by the runoff model, named Tank model and the characteristics of the flood is cleared. Furthermore, how to modify the flood alarm information and flood fighting system are discussed to reduce the flood damages.

Key words: Urban flood, Extraordinary severe rainfall
2010-333 THE RAAB FLOOD FORECASTING STRUCTURE – IMPROVING INTERNATIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT
Christophe Ruch 1, Robert Schatzl 2,Karl Maracek 3, Gregers Jorgensen 4, Christian Reszler 1, Walter Poltnig 1, Christian Pohl 5
1 JOANNEUM RESEARCH - Institute of Water Resources Management, Austria
2 Amt der Steiermarkischen Landesregierung, Austria
3 Amt der Burgenlandischen Landesregierung, Austria
4 DHI Water & Environment, Denmark
5 DHI-WASY GmbH, Germany


Abstract:
The Raab Flood Forecasting System generation is a project with European dimensions. The Raab watershed extends over two countries: Austria and Hungary whereas the last one is located downstream compared to Austria. Due to these geographical characteristics the probability for a flood genesis is much more significant in Austria than in the Hungary but the related flooding risks are distributed over the entire watershed. The project Flood Forecasting Raab gives a concrete example of international cooperation in the field of Flood management The structure in development will be build out of one International Flood Forecasting Centre and four regional centres. It illustrates how a trans-boundary flood forecasting system can operate. The main element is the International Flood Forecasting Centre installed in Graz (Austria) where all the necessary online data and meteorological forecasts will be automatically collected and formatted for the simulations. Furthermore, each hour will start a simulation with a forecasted time of two days whereas the main results will be published on the internet. The complete model setup and the results will be transferred to the four regional centres. Therefore, on these regional centres it will be possible to analyse detailed results and to develop local scenarios using for example modified meteorological forecasts or other initial conditions. This technical solution allows a perfect synchronisation for online data, pre and posts processing files, information and results from the simulations between all five Flood Forecasting Centres. It contributes therefore to a noticeable improvement for information organisation between Austria and Hungary and should be considered as a new method for Flood and Risk management. The new communication strategy coupled with the automatic and continuous modelling as well as the result publication on the internet delivers a concrete example for Flood prevention and resources management that can be transferred to other trans-boundary watersheds.

Key words: Flood forecasting, International Basin, Raab River
2010-356 THE FREQUENCY OF THE RAINY AND DROUGHT SPELLS IN THE WESTERN ROMANIAN PLAIN, NORTH OF MURES RIVER
Eugenia Serban 1, Carmen Sofia Dragota 2
1 University of Oradea, Faculty of Environmental Protection, Romania
2 Institute of Geography of the Romanian Academy, Romania

Abstract:
In the present work, periods of two or more consecutive rainy days were chosen for the analysis of the rainy spells. The dryness and drought spells have been considered according to Hellman's definitions. Daily amounts of precipitation have been used from 5 weather stations, during the years 1961-2000. They all have a common observation period. Because of the very different duration of the rainy, drought and dryness spells, the number of rainy, drought and dryness days has been studied, as this method offers a better analysis of the phenomena. Within a year may occur, on the average, about 30-35 rainy spells with an average duration of 4 days. On the analysed territory, 119-141 rainy days may occur annually, on the average. Namely, on this territory it rains about 4-4.5 months a year. Most of the rainy days were recorded in the intervals November-January and April-June. The linear tendency of the annual number of rainy days is decreasing. Within a year may occur, on the average 4 drought spells with a mean duration of 16 days and 14 dryness spells with a mean duration of 7 days. The drought phenomenon can produce in any month of the year, with the highest frequency in the spell July-October. The monthly analysis of the drought days number shows the presence of an autumn drought and a spring or winter drought, the autumn one being much more intense. On the analyzed territory the dryness and drought phenomena represent about 5 months a year. The frequency of the annual average number of rainy, drought and dryness days out of the total number of days of the year shows that the highest weight belongs to the rainy days, followed by the dryness days and then the drought days.

Key words: rainy spell, drought spell, dryness spell, rainy day, frequency, tendency
2010-342 SEASONAL AND REGIONAL DEPENDENCE OF RADON CONCENTRATION IN TBILISI (GEORGIA)
Lela Mtsariashvili 1, Nana Khikhadze 1, Nodar Kekelidze 1, Teimuraz Jakhutashvili 1, Eremia Tulashvili 1
1 Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Georgia

Abstract:
For the first time there are presented results of long regular measurements of content of radioactive gas radon Rn-222 in potable (tap) water for various city areas of Tbilisi depending on time (For the period of 2009). It is shown, that due to level of radon content in potable water the investigated city areas can be divided conditionally into 2 groups: with rather big radon content more than 1 Bq/L (Vake, Saburtalo, Isani, Ortachala), and areas with rather small radon content - less than 1 Bq/L (Digomi, Vazisubani). It is underlined, that this circumstance can be connected with presence of two qualitatively distinguished sources of supply of Tbilisi by potable water - underground (artesian wells near settlements Natakhtari, Bulachauri, Mukhrani) and surface (Tbilisi reservoir filled with waters of the rivers Aragvi and Iori) for which conditions of aeration and degassing by radon have essentially various character. Also there are marked some other features in character of distribution of radon.

Key words: Concentration of radon, Water quality, Drinking water
2010-360 INTERRELATION OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS THROUGH OUTLIER IDENTIFICATION ON RIVERS IN SERBIA
Borislava Blagojevic 1, Aleksandra Ilic 2, Stevan Prohaska 2
1 Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Serbia
2 Institute for Water Resorces Development, Serbia

Abstract:
As floods and droughts are normal, recurrent features in climate, this paper will present an introduction to an in-depth analysis of draught and flood interrelation on rivers in Serbia. There are 144 gauge stations flow data available for analysis. These stations form an observation network of Hydro-Meteorological Service of the Republic of Serbia. Gauge stations from the Province of Vojvodina will not be taken into consideration due to unnatural flow regime caused by Danube-Tisa-Danube channel. Data sets to be analyzed are annual minima, maxima, average flow, and 30-day minima. Outlier identification will be performed by Grubes and Beck test, also known as Pilot and Harvey test. The identified outliers will be removed from the series as a kind of data verification, and their return frequency estimated from shortened series. A criteria for accepting an outlier as valid event will be judged by estimated return frequency compared to data record length. It is expected that extremely wet/dry years will be shown as synchronized outliers at a gauge station in each of the tested series either as high or low outlier. Taking existence of an outlier as the only drought/flood criteria, new series of extreme events will be formed. Data for years when low outlier appears in the series of annual minima will be excluded from the series of annual maxima and vice versa. This approach will lead to formation of series with data from the same population. Statistics of the series of extreme events will be compared for observed series, series without outliers, series from the same population and series of 30 days minima. The significance of difference in statistics of these series will be analyzed and presented. Regions prone to hydrologic droughts, floods, or both are expected to be identified for the territory of Serbia.

Key words: floods, hydrologic draught, outliers
2010-485 METHODOLOGY OF RESEARCH RELATED TO SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL DISASTERS
– POSSIBILITIES TO MODIFY SOME TECHNIQUES FOR THE COLLECTION OF DATA
Gordana Vuksanovic 1
1 Department of Sociology, Faculty of Philosophy, Serbia

Abstract:
Methodology of Research related to Social Consequences of Natural Disasters – Possibilities to Modify some Techniques for the Collection of Data It is a generaly known fact that knowledge in the field of methodology represents a prerequisite for a successful engagement in scientific work. In the region of Serbia, in the field of sociological research, the collection of data about various social phenomena is usually characterized by an uncritical application of the same techniques to collect data for different social content. Problems in sociological works could be classified into two groups: a) theoretical analyses without a concrete empiricial argumentation; b) rare, insufficiently theoretically and methodologically founded empirical researches. Among the sociologists, one can notice the tendency towards the researches with the application of only one technique for data collection, one technique in opinion poll research, and, naturally, one instrument – the questionnaire with the close type questions. Adjustment of the instrument to a faster and easier data processing limits the cognitive range of these researches. At the same time, many socially significant problems, like for example natural disasters, do not represent a topic of a broader sociological interest. In addition to causing great material damage, floods which occurred during April 2005 in the Banat area also pointed to a significant unpreparedness related to collecting data on the basis of which one organized the collection and distribution of humanitarian aid, removal of the flood consequences and undertaking activities to prevent new floods. The occurring disaster pointed to the general unpreparedness, both at the local and a broader level, related to the «monitoring» of the initial conditions and observation of the development of the flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effects of the application of the existing research techniques and point to the possibilities for their modification, with the goal to collect the most relevant empirical data which would serve as the basis for planning future activities. Key words: methodology, flood, natural disasters, research techniques

Key words: methodology, flood, natural disasters, research techniques
2010-282 THE WATER VOLUMES (FROM PRECIPITATIONS) DURING CATASTROPHIC FLOODS IN JULY 2008
ON THE RIVERS OF UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS
Olga Lukianets 1, Vira Balabukh 1, Mykhaylo Sosyedko 1
1 Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine

Abstract:
The rain floods which passed on the rivers of Ukrainian Carpathians in July 2008 certainly became a prominent «hydrological event» and brought changes in the actual and calculated parameters of maximal river flow. The amount and intensity of natural weather phenomena are determined by the thermodynamic and energy individuality of barometric formations, which depends on a weather (synoptic) process and macroscale circulation. An effect of these factors is significantly corrected by the features of geographical location of territory, its relief and creates the regional peculiarities of their distribution. At the beginning of the ХХ century in the north hemisphere a position change of centres of atmospheric action, increase of meridional and weakening of zonal circulation, and accordingly change of trajectory, intensity and recurrence of cyclones are observed. Cyclones which entered Ukraine in this period were moving to south trajectories. They had considerably less kinetic energy and velocity, greater soil moisture content. Baric formations are more intense than in previous years. This led to increase in amount and intensity of elemental precipitations in Ukraine. Such conditions were observed in Central Europe from 22 to 27 July 2008 and caused very strong and unique in its duration rains in the western regions of Ukraine, which caused destructive catastrophic floods in the river basins of Dniester, Prut and Siret. Materials from 18 meteorological observation stations and 75 hydro-meteorological posts are used for the analysis of precipitations fields and their time behaviour. Total water volume, which fell out during rains July 22-27 on the territory of the river basins of Carpathians region attained 6,80 km3. Thus directly on mountain catchment's area fell out about 5,15-5,20 km3. Conclusion about intensity of precipitations can be done taking into account the water volumes which fell out to unit areas. Such characteristics allow us to estimate stability of orographic districts of maximums and minimums of precipitations, condition of floods forming and consequences of their passing in comparison with water abounding years. For 4 days (22-27.07) amount of precipitations over 100 mm in the Dniester basin to Zalischiky fell out on the area of 13 th. km2. The area about 9 th. km2 (mainly mountainous part) the total amount of precipitations attained 200-350 mm. Maximal discharges and water levels were formed on the Carpathians Rivers as a result of the most intensive rains on July 24-25. In the basic areas of floods forming the amount of precipitations at this time reached for 24 hours: in the Dniester basin 120-140 or even 150-167 mm (the Opir, Bistritsya Solotvinska and Bistritsya Nadvirnyanska basins), on highland of Bukovynian Carpathians (in the Prut basin) 100-135 mm. Only in the Tisza basin they did not exceed 60-80 mm. In the same days the amount of precipitations during 12 hours was quite often 50-70 and 70-90 mm.

Key words: The circulation of atmosphere, cyclone, precipitations, flood, volume of water
2010-377 WATER RISKS MANAGEMENT AT THE COASTAL AREA OF LEZHA REGION
Narin Panariti 1, Sabri Laci 2
1 CARDS INPAEL Project, Tirana, Albania
2 Department of Geography, Tirana University, Albania

Abstract:
   The coastal area of Lezha Region is located 155.2  km2 North of Shengjini mount, up to the Ishmi river in South and from the national road Tirana – Lezha (East) up to the Adriatik Sea (West). It belongs to 3 communes: Shëngjin, Shënkoll and Fusha Kuqe. It has 16 settlements and 33,614 inhabitants.
   This geographical location: between Tirana (the capital) and Shkodra (principal centre of North Albania) together with the presence of fertile land and of the sea, the Mediterranean climate and both surface and ground water resources, as well as the rich flora and fauna have encouraged the presence of a dense population and the development of a complex economy, mainly of the primary and tertiary sectors.
   Due to the lower streams of three relatively big rivers going through the area (Drini i Lezhas up North, Mati in the centre and Ishmi at South) water related risks have always been a threat. Floods from rivers and heavy rains have been common until 1965, when works were carried out for the riverbed management, for marshes reclamation and pumping of superfluous water. After 1990, due to damages to protection infrastructure and drainage systems, the flood risk is present again causing (almost every year) property and environmental damages.
   Failure to properly manage these risks is mainly caused by lack of funding at the local level. Obviously, the area is in urgent need to solve the problem. Protection infrastructure needs to be rehabilitated along the riverbeds, drainage canals need to be cleaned and deepened, pumping stations need to become operational, etc.
   This paper provides new information and awareness on the probability and size of the problem, on forms and possibilities for successful management of water risks.
   Methods used comprise site observation and surveys, documents consultation, measurements, mapping, photographing, analysis and synthesis. 
 
Key words: Water, risks, floods, infrastructure. 

2010-419 ASSESMENT OF THE DROUGHT PATTERN CHANGE IN CAMLIDERE BASIN USING SPI INDEX
Fatih Keskin 1, Ali Unal Sorman 2
1 State Hydraulic Works, Turkey
2 Middle East Technical University, Turkey

Abstract:
Drought and floods which are the major issues of today's world have several inverse impacts on economy, society and ecology. The severity of the drought is related with main usage of water and can be expressed in different indexes. These indexes could give different information for the drought analysis and one of them is the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the analysis of severe and longer duration of drought events has been carried out by applying the SPI. The severity and change pattern of drought has been analyzed by SPI for the Çamlıdere dam basin where the basin supplies most of the domestic water to the capital city of Turkey where the total supplied water is about 800.000 m3/day. The meteorological data for the period of 1926-2006 is used and the period is divided into two periods as 1926-1966 and 1967-2008. The analysis of these periods have been carried out by the investigation of short term and long term periods with different cumulative months as 1,3,6,9,12,24. Additionally the change in pattern of drought is analyzed by examining the change pattern for different return period of drought events. The results showed that there is %120 increase in the second period of 24 month SPI and % 40 increase for 12 month SPI, where as 10% increase in short term SPI is examined. The extreme difference between two periods showed that there is a change in the pattern of droughts in Çamlıdere dam basin.

Key words: Turkey, Drought,  SPI
2010-422 PROCEDURE USED IN DANUBE FLOODRISK PROJECT FOR FLOOD WAVES DECOMPOSITION
Radu Drobot 1
1 Technical University of Civil Engineering from Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
One of the important issues in order to obtain flood hazard maps is to guarantee that the flood corresponding to a certain return period (or a certain exceedance probability) is used in the hydraulic simulation between two successive gauging stations along the whole reach of the river. The problem is very simple if there are no important tributaries or there is no significant distributed inflow between these gauging stations. On the contrary, this problem is much more complicated if important tributaries (whose discharges are measured before the confluence) or an important number of small un-gauged rivers are present along the reach. For small-medium basins (less than 5.000 km2) at the level of a country this problem is solved using rainfall-runoff models. Unfortunately this approach cannot be used in the case of Danube River. The main issue is to be sure that along every sub-reach (situated between the confluences of two successive tributaries with the Danube River) of the examined reach the flood (which is not registered in these intermediate points) has the same return period. This problem is also known as the decomposition of the flood waves; of course, the solution is not unique. A procedure consisting in 5 steps was proposed in the Danube Floodrisk project (Interreg IVB South East Europe) for the delineation of the flooded area corresponding to the floods characterized by P% probability of exceedance. The obtained floods are then used in hydraulic computations to obtain flood hazard maps.

Key words: floods, hazard map, return pariod
2010-428 DRIDU DAM FAILURE SCENARIOS AND ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVE PROPAGATION
Maria Cheveresan 1, Nicolai Sirbu 1, Dan Stematiu 1, Radu Drobot 1
1 Technical University of Civil Engineering from Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
Between 1990 and 2001 several phenomena were observed at the Dridu dam structure like longitudinal cracks, local sliding located in the downstream slope of the contour dyke, entrapment of sandy material at some of the drains from the visiting gallery and infiltrations between the power plant and the spillway. Most of these phenomena were considered unusual and some constraints in dam operation were imposed. Even the described phenomena did not occur anymore, several dam break scenarios were developed, computing the corresponding flood waves. Thus, based on dam characteristics and behavior 3 failure scenarios were imagined. The flood hydrographs generated by the breach evolution were computed; the maximum discharge of the flood in the worst case scenario is 2360 m3/s. In order to delineate the flooded area downstream the dam a specific mathematical model was developed for Ialomita river from Dridu dam to Tandarei (190 km). The modeling process using HecGeoRAS and HecRAS software was challenging because of the input data obtained from different sources (e.g. digital terrain model extracted from topographical maps and measured cross sections). The steady state hydraulic model for the river bed was calibrated using the water levels from the rating curves at three gauge stations. In the unsteady state hydraulic model the roughness coefficients for the floodplain were proposed according to the aerial images. The flow hydrograph for the worst failure scenario of Dridu dam and the rating curve downstream at Tandarei gauge station were introduced as boundary conditions. After running the model the variation of the water level in each cross section was obtained and the flooded area was extracted in ArcGIS using HecGEoRAs. Based on these results, the authorities may design in advance the measures to be taken to protect the inhabitants from the downstream settlements.

Key words: dam break, accidental flood, hydraulic simulation, flooded areas
2010-430 MICROBIAL WATER POLLUTION OF VJOSA RIVER AND THE VEGETABLE CONTAMINATION BY IRRIGATION
Margarita Hysko 1, Blerina Gace 2, Klementina Puto 1
1 Tirana University, Albania
2 High School, Albania

Abstract:
The Vjosa River is the second longest river in Albania. In Greece, it runs for 80 Km, from Mountains Pindi, in Albania it runs for 192 km, joining some other small rivers and empties into Adriatic Sea. The large area of Vjosa River is very fertile farmland and agriculture activity is present. The mismanagement of nitrogen fertilizer and effluent spreading practices in farming causing significant agriculture water pollution. Non-modified human wastes are discharged into the river causing a high pollution. Another issue is industrial and urban waste dumped on the banks of the river. Is monitored the Vjosa river microbial water pollution at the Permeti Region, and the impact the water has on vegetables by the irrigations. The tests of the faecal indicators is used. For the vegetables is used testing for pathogens as well. The water of this river is sometimes much polluted. The vegetables: tomatoes, lettuce, courgettes, eggplants, capsicum watered by the river are very polluted by the faecal coliforms. The Salmonella test of these vegetables is negative.

Key wards: Vjosa, Heterotrophs,  coliforms, Salmonella, CFU
2010-437 DANUBE FLOODRISK PROJECT
Mary-Jeanne Adler 1
1 Ministry of Environement, Romania

Abstract:
Flood endangers economic development all along the Danube; a total of approximately 27.300 km˛ shared between the following countries RO: 32,5%, HU: 20,2%, Serbia: 14,4%, SV: 8%, HR: 5,8%, BG: 3,8%, AT 3,4% and DE: 5,7% are characterized by a high flood risk. The overall objective of the FLOODRISK project, submitted under Interreg IVB South East Europe programme is to develop and produce high quality, stakeholder oriented flood risk maps for the transnational Danube river floodplains to provide adequate risk information for spatial planning and economic requests. The project's single objectives are: - Development of a joint mapping method for flood risk and harmonization of data sources. - Production and provision of risk maps and risk information. - Integration of relevant stakeholders and users on different levels into the definition and realization processes. - Involvement of different economic aspects of land use in the river basin like spatial planning, recreation and agriculture as well as energy supply or health service. - Linkage of flood risk mapping and provision of maps as basis for planning, e.g. within the EU Floods Directive. - Development and distribution of exemplary procedures within the Danube countries and beyond. - Reflection of the EU Directives, e.g. WFD, Floods Directive, providing feedback based on the experiences of the project cooperation by using the platform of the ICPDR Flood Protection Expert Group. The implemented harmonized approach will reduce regional disparities and will provide a feedback to national and regional policies. This project will represent the basis to develop a transnational flood risk management strategy in the Danube basin, which is a key issue for economic development. The paper will present the whole project and the current stage of the project development.

Key words: flood risk, transboundary cooperation, harmonized approach
2010-273 THE FLASH FLOOD AND ITS CONSEQUENCES UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOLID DISCHARGE IN RIVERBEDS OF SMALL AND VERY SMALL BASINS
Sorin Mihaita Teodor 1
1 National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
The paper provides a deep analysis of the evolution of solid discharges during flash floods produced by heavy rainfall located over areas of 2-30  km˛ . In order to study this we have selected some river basins that were seriously affected by such floods, such as: Clit and Saca, located in the middle part of Suceava River Basin, Sugura, Agas, Seaca, Beleghet, Goioasa, Grohotis located in the upper part of Trotus River Basin, both being situated in mountaineous or pre-mountaineous areas of the Eastern Carpathians. The analysis aims at the following objectives: - the genesis of flash floods with implications in the creation of solid and liquid excedents - the determination of the liquid run-off during floods and designing probabilities for the resulted discharges - the evaluation of the solid suspended and rolled discharge during such floods - the estimation of large sediment volumes deposited in river beds, especially at the confluences of major rivers (Suceava and Trotus rivers respectively) - the evaluation of the damages produced by flash floods As a result of this analysis we can easily observe that these flash floods have a great distructive power with liquid discharges that have the following return periods: 20 years for Sugura River, 200 years for Agas River, 500 years for Beleghet River (located in the upper part of the Trotus River Basin), extremly high solid discharges (0.117 kg/s – 137 kg/s for Sugura River, 0.156 – 190 kg/s for Agas River, etc.) and volumes of large sediments deposited in the river beds that can vary between 10000 t and 30000 t. To these hydrological parametres we can add human lives loses, the destruction of rail roads, of houses, bridges, highways and national roads, the submersion of large agricultural lands, silted or polluted wells.

Key words: flash flood, sediment volumes, granulometric fractions
2010-376 WATER RELATED RISKS OF THE TERRITORY OF UZBEKISTAN IN CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITION
Dergacheva I. 1, Myagkov S. 1
1 NIGMI, Uzhydromet, Uzbekistan

Abstract:
Uzbekistan highly vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of climate change. For Uzbekistan, the highly recurrent and most potential threats are linked to drought, mudflows, flush floods and outbreak lakes.
Climate change is expected to make the country even more vulnerable. Uzbekistan is already facing a number of serious ecological problems aggravated by negative impacts of global warming:
•    Strong water resource deficiency.
•    The Aral Sea crisis -
•    Arable land degradation (intensive salinization, all types of soil erosion) due to irrigated water shortage and irrational natural resources management;
•     Reduction of pasture area and its degradation;
•    Biodiversity reducing at the ecosystem level
The growth of the precipitation fluctuation amplitude for the last decade, intensive warming, increasing water demand and reorientation of the water reservoirs work to the power basis mode in the upper streams of the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers have significantly increased the risk of drought especially for the Amudarya's delta. The issue of the large scaled drought happened during 2000-2001 could be drawn as example.
Owing to the climate change it is expected that the number of floods and mudflows will increase while the duration of natural disasters periods will tend to be extended according to assessment made.
Recent studies have shown that glacier retreat is another significant phenomenon which can cause outburst of glacial lakes as well as serious downstream floods. That is aggravated by its steep topography owing to a wide altitude range within a very short span. These unusual phenomena potentially have adverse impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem health affecting the achievement of MDGs in general and MDG7 in particular.
Climate change leads to increase of drought risk, accelerated snow and glacial melting process, increase in the size of glacial lakes and formation of new lakes, rainfall variation, impacts on forests and biodiversity which have direct bearing on human health and food security of Uzbekistan.
At the same time, there is the one more barrier is that management has no reliable methodological basis necessary for decision making in climate change conditions. To present day the following assessments has not carried out yet in the country:
-  assessment the nature response to anthropogenic impact,
-  the biased assessment for economic efficiency in aspect of the environmental and  natural resource management conditions affecting activities,
-  the biased assessment for water and land ecosystem productive capacity, in particular, of irrigated farming.
According to Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan prepared in 2008, average rates of warming from the beginning of 1950th on territory of Uzbekistan have made 0.29°С for a decade that more than in too times exceeds rates of global warming. Warming is accompanied by increase of the dry and warm periods that changes conditions of water resources formation and increase their deficit. In Uzbekistan the increase in number of mudflows on 19-24 % by 2050 and increase of mudflow period duration are expected. Besides augmentation of precipitation variability and increase of high-altitude border of mountain lakes will take place. Probability of occurrence of new lakes in a zone of glacier deviation and danger of their break will increase as well. Warming in Uzbekistan is accompanied by strengthening of extremeness of weather, in particular increase in number of strong precipitation and numbers of droughty days. Such conditions are especially dangerous in a combination with deficiency of water for irrigation what could result in decrease or destruction of crop yield at large territories.
It clearly shows the gravity of the problem. 

2010-269 INVESTIGATION OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATOLOGIC PRECIPITATION DEFICIT INDEX IN GEDIZ BASIN
Erhan Akkuzu 1, Gulay Pamuk Mengu 1, Serhat Sensoy 2
1 Ege University, Agriculture Faculty, Farm Structures and Irrigation Dept. Bornova Izmir, Turkey
2 Turkish State Meteorological Service

Abstract:
It is envisaged that depending on global climate change, drought will be felt more seriously particularly in the Mediterranean Basin while serious declines in rainfall might take place in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Central Anatolian regions in Turkey. The greatest user of fresh water is agriculture. Thus, the efficient use of water in agricultural sector, which will be affected most by drought, is gaining more and more importance. Furthermore, drought analysis is of great importance for planning and operating soil and water resources. Climatologic precipitation deficit index, which investigates the difference between rainfall and evapotranspiration, is one of the indices used for monitoring agricultural drought. With the determination of climatologic rainfall deficit, it is possible to determine the requirement for irrigation water in a region and to carry out agricultural planning, irrigation planning as well as product pattern and economic planning. In this study, the temporal and spatial variations in the climatologic precipitation deficit index in the basin will be examined by making use of the climatic data of some meteorology stations in Gediz Basin with an essential potential in Turkey.


Keywords: Drought, evapotranspiration, precipitation, Gediz.
2010-389 ASSESSMENT AND COMPARISON OF STORM INTERPOLATION FOR AVERAGE STORM ESTIMATION AT SHIRINAB BASIN
M. Ganji 1, M.J. Pouraghniaei 1
1 Ghods Niroo Engineers, Dept. of water resources and Env. SciencesMotahari St., Tehran, Iran

Abstract:
Spatial distribution of point rainfall is a main step in Rainfall-Runoff modeling. For this process that is among uncertainties of storm estimation for Dam sites and prediction of Flood, numbers of techniques were evaluated. In this paper Deterministic and Geostatistical method have been analyzed and compared. Deterministic techniques used the existing configuration of the sample points to create a surface (Inverse Distance Weighted) or fit a mathematical function to the measured points (radial basis functions). Geostatistical techniques, as their name implies, create surfaces incorporating the statistical properties of the measured data. All methods that were used in this research are IDW, RBFs, Spline, Krigings and Co_Krigings that were applied in order to evaluate the use of these approaches in GIS environment to examine rain interpolation. For geostatistical methods different semi-variogram models were used and the relevant biases as well as the increases in variance have been assessed. Different methods are using to reduce bias of the predictions, decrease the uncertainty and provide a realistic estimate for each predicted location. Finally, cross validation technique was used for comparison of these methods in which each measured point is removed and compared to the predicted value for that location.


Key words: Storm, Spatial distribution, Interpolation, Deterministic, Geostatistic, GIS 

2010-461 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN RIVER BASINS ARGES, ROMANIA
Daniel Constantin Diaconu 1, Emanuel Mailat 2
1 Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Romania
2 Romanian Waters National Administration, Romania

Abstract:
Floods in many countries in recent years and the consequences that followed have led, amid an increase in social responsibility to a new approach to flood risk management, approach the human community awareness and involvement are essential in avoid loss of lives and reduce damage. Flood risk management is applying policies, procedures and practices with the objectives of risk identification, analysis and evaluation, treatment, monitoring and reassessment to reduce their risk so that human communities, all citizens can live, work and to needs and aspirations in a sustainable physical and social environment. Arges Basin is one of the major river basins in Romania because of the hydroelectric potential of the existing water resources used in industry, irrigation and water supply of population, including the capital Bucharest. Arges catchment area is 12,550 km2 which overlaps with the mountain, Carpathian and plain, is controlled by numerous lakes (8 accumulation 27 accumulation in the water volume of over 50 million m3), the derivatives pools, the adjustments, the dams, the water intakes and more. In this context is intended to highlight efforts of the authorities involved in water management activities in our country, analyzing the measures implemented in the catchment area of Arges.

Key words: Floods, management, river basins 
2010-471 THE FLASH FLOOD AND STRONG WINDS IN EASTERN MACEDONIA ON 4-TH DECEMBER 2008
Dusanka Tanusevska 1, Ivana Petrovic 1,
1 Hydrometeorological Institute of Macedonia, Macedonia

Abstract:
On 4th of December 2008 the weather in Republic of Macedonia, especially in their eastern parts was influenced by convective storms followed by strong winds, thunderstorms, excessive rainfall, electrical discharges, hail and even small tornadoes. In a short period of about 1 hour, 53 liters rainfall per square meter caused rapid flooding. The water flowed all over inundated many places and all dry ravines were filled up with water. The result was several victims who perished in the flood, material damage registered in almost all of eastern Macedonia, especially in Radovish and the surrounding area. On this date, the circulation over Europe dominated a significant trough, which stretched from Scandinavia to N. Africa. Its position was changing slowly toward east. At the east side of Europe, the weather was influenced by a large ridge. At the surface, large anticyclones covered NE Europe and SW Europe. Between the anticyclones, the region of the upper level trough was being occupied by shallow lows. Two significant changes took place - the first one, the arrival of a deep low, which affected the British Isles and the one, the rapid deepening of a low over the Ionian Sea. The South Balkan was under a very strong southerly flow and moved over the region approaching from south. The air mass originated from North Africa had been characterized with very moist, warm and unstable conditions. The storms quickly spread northwards, reaching the Adriatic Sea and Balkan states. It was a very strong storm with a lot of damage that could be expected in the warm part of the year, but it happened on 4th of December.

Key words: flash flood, inundated,victims, strong winds,thunderstorms, hail
2010-492 NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE PCINJA CATCHMENT
Slavoljub Dragicevic 1, Ivica Milevski 2, Ivan Blinkov 2, Ivan Novkovic 1, Jelena Lukovic 1
1 Faculty of Geography, Belgrade University, Serbia
2 UKIM Faculty of Forestry, Macedonia

Abstract:
A natural hazard has been defined by UNESCO as the probability of occurence within a specified period of time and within a given area of a potentially damaging phenomenon. It has been estimated that the natural hazards cost the global economy over $50000 million per year. The aim of this work is to analyse and determine the areas of potential natural hazards in Pcinja basin. Pcinja is large left tributary of Vardar River (135 km long, 2877,3 km2 catchment's area), which drainages surface waters from northeastern Macedonia, and in smaller part (538 km2 or 19%) from southeastern Serbia. Because of suitable physical-geographic factors (geology, ter-rain morphology, climate, hydrology, vegetation cover, soil composition, and high human im-pact), some parts of the catchment have significant risk of natural hazards. Given the well-known fact that they occur suddenly, independently of each other or in the mutual relationship (synergy), it is necessary to make assessment analysis of most significant natural hazards in the selected basin. Therefore, in this work analysis of vulnerability of the area to various geohazards, atmospheric and hydrologic hazards in Pcinja basin is performed, and then generalized map of the natural hazards is prepared. Assessment of geohazards is prepared by analysis of existing seismic maps, while landslide potential and excess erosion risk is estimate through appropriate methodology. Assessment of atmospheric hazards involves spatial distribution of extreme temperatures, intense rainfall (heavy rain), the average number of days with the hail and identification of areas vulnerable to drought. The hydrological hazards (hydro-hazards) involve determination of hydrological extremes, while the risk of bio-hazards involve identification of areas endangered by fires. Based on these analyses the ability to create generalized map of natural hazards in the basin Pcinja will be achieved, with areas vulnerable to certain natural treats, as well as the total area endangered from hazards.

Key words: Natural hazards, Hazard assessment, Pcinja basin, Vulnerable areas
2010-493 THE INFLUENCE OF INTENSIVE RAINFALL ON EROSION PROCESSES ON RECENTLY RECLAMED LAND
Aleksandar Trendafilov 1, Bozin Trendafilov 1
1 UKIM - Faculty of Forestry, Macedonia

Abstract:
Intensive rainfall can be the reason for a number of disasters, most of them doing damages which are difficult to deal with and require expert action (opinion). The negative influence of the intensive rainfall on a recently physically stabilized and biologically improved area will be looked into in this study. The aim is to present the negative influence and the erosion processes that follow after an intensive rainfall, as well as the consequent damages possibly to occur. The location is the eastern part of the Republic of Macedonia in the vicinity of the town of Radovish, namely the tailing dam "Topolnica" at the Bucim mine. After the process of physical stabilization, the biological part of the reclamation process comprised: application of soil layer (in depth corresponding to the micro-locality), choice of plant species to be used (mainly indigenous species), preparation of longitudinal contour rows, technique and technologies for seeding and timing, planting, nurturing and supervision control. The reclamation process was performed very well and the land started to take after its surroundings, until the 4th of December 2008 when an intensive rainfall occurred. The effects of it were devastation of the tailing dam by causing very big gullies, runoff and deposition of eroded material in the lower parts of the tailing dam. However, after a quick restoration took place, which alleviated the negative impact, the tailing dam was remediated as it was before the rainfall. A general remark is that natural occurrences like intensive rainfall happen and the expert community has to try and excel in providing the best possible solutions to a problem, as well as fixing it.
2010-502 THE SIMULATION OF THE ACCIDENTAL FLOOD
Gheorghe Cretu 1, Codruta Bbadaluta Minda 1
1 Politehnica University, Faculty of Hydrotecnical, Romania

Abstract:
Correspondent to the appropriate flood model computation produced by a dike failure was developed in Java language, a computer program called "I.A.D." This allows, starting from a flood forecast and an acceptable risk degree to establish (including the entire range of variables in linear systems of defence against floods in the country) floodable volumes (cumulative time). The results obtained by running program overlap within the limits of allowable above those of some studies on real cases that occurred by the failure of dikes on water courses from whole the country. This, after the main parameters were determined from a general survey based on data of a survey based on all river basins in the country, including the Danube. Regarding this there were verified the hydrograph and the flood volume and where data was found, the volume and the floodable area.

Key words: flood, failure, risk degree,  hydrograph
2010-512 ANALYSIS OF THE ISTANBUL FLOOD 2009
Thomas Einfalt 1, Fatih Keskin 2
1 hydro & meteo GmbH & Co. KG, Germany
2 DSI, Turkey

Abstract:
In September 2009, a severe flood hit Istanbul and caused the death of more than 30 people resulting from heavy rainfall of more than 300 mm. In this paper, we are going to analyse the rainfall measured by rain gauges and radar and modelled by the numerical weather model MM5. The differences of the three approaches will be highlighted and the consequences shown in computed hydrographs of the main river that was affected. The hydrological modeling is based on MIKE 11 with the SCS-Curve number module by using the land-use in the modeled basin. For this application it is important to have a good quality control of the rain gauge data and the radar data before adjusting the radar data to rain gauge values. Only after this step, a well calibrated model is able to produce useful results. Uncertainties from radar as well as from the rain gauge measurement have direct effects on the result of the possible discharge. Introduction of the uncertainties in meteorology and hydrology could help the risk management authorities to give reliable decisions.
2010-526 HIGH WATERS IN VRANA LAKE (DALMATIA) – PROTECTION AND RISKS
Josip Rubinic 1, Tomislava Bosnjak 2, Branko Pejakovic 3, Mirjana Svonja 3, Maja Cuze 4, Ana Katalinic 4
1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Rijeka, Croatia
2 Metereological and Hydrological Service, Croatia
3 Croatian Waters, VGO Spli, Croatia
4 Public Institution Nature Park Vransko jezero, Croatia

Abstract:
The lakes situated in the coastal karst areas are very sensitive hydrological systems whose aquifers are dynamically balanced with the sea. One of those systems is Vrana lake in Dalmatia which, by its surface of more than 30 km2, is the largest lake in Croatia. The lake is a cryptodepression, already in the 18th century connected to the sea by an artificial canal in order to create agricultural fields from the peripheral parts of the lake. Due to its outstanding natural characteristics the lake and the surrounding area has been declared a Nature park. However, the lake system salination appearances, the largest of which was in 2008, represent a threat to the natural eco-system. Therefore a need for finding the proper lake system salination protection measures has risen, primarily within the context of a possible elevation of the canal level by which the lake is connected to the sea. Such elevations also raised issues of large water protection for the influential part of Vrana field around the lake, which resulted in conducting and analyzing the high waters occurrences described in this paper. Since only a part of the surface inflows into the lake are hydrologically controlled, the high waters analysis was conducted by balance model monitoring – based on the analysis of lake water change dynamics. The analysis has established the statistical principles of high waters occurrence within the lake system, the intra-annual interdependence of high waters occurrence in relation to the previous minimal water level conditions as well as the corresponding trends. The large sensibility of lake system oscillations has also been established. These oscillations are the result of wind influence on estimated inflow values.

Key words: lake, karst, high waters, Vrana lake, Dalmatia
2010-529 TOWARDS A FLOOD FORECASTING OPERATIONAL SYSTEM
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-POWER PLANTS OPERATION
Aurelien Claude 1, Isabella Zin 1, Charles Obled 1, Alain Gautheron 2, Christian Perret 3
1 Labaratoire des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement - Universite de Grenoble, France
2 Service de Prevision des Crues des Alpes du Nord, France
3 Electricite de France - Division Technique Generale, France

Abstract:
The operational flood forecasting service of French Northern Alps (called Service de Prevision des Crues - Alpes du Nord) needs to develop and implement an integrated flood forecasting system for the alpine Isere River basin in Grenoble. This basin has a rain and snowmelt dominated regime. Consequently, most parts of the basin are harnessed for hydropower.
Within this framework, the semi-distributed Routing System II model (Dubois et al., 2007) has been implemented on a sub-basin of 909 km˛ where flows are intensively influenced by this power system. The first issue that will be addressed concerns the sensitivity of model simulations to the accuracy of the input precipitation and to the division by elevation bands that are used to segment each sub-basin. This modelling was performed necessarily without taking into account the hydraulic operations by using for its target the daily reconstituted natural discharges.
Then, the inclusion of the hydroelectric plants in the model was completed. A sensitivity analysis of hourly simulated discharges to different hydroelectric operating scenarios, necessary to adequately simulating the peak flow at the outlet of the basin, will be presented.

Key words: modelling, flood forecasting, snow, hydropower , precipitation
2010-552 DROUGHT CYCLES OVER SOUTH-EAST EUROPE
FOR THE PERIOD 1870-2005 AND THEIR CONNECTION WITH SOLAR ACTIVITY
Yavor Chapanov 1, Daniel Gambis 2
1 Central Laboratory for Geodesy - BAS, Bulgaria
2 Paris Observatory, France

Abstract:
The drought cycles over the South-East Europe are determined by means of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period 1870-2005 from the area between East longitude 11.25-28.75 degrees and North latitude 33.75-48.75 degrees. The long-periodical components of PDSI are determined by means Fourier approximation based on the Least-Squares estimation of trigonometrically coefficients and Whittaker-Vondrák filtration. The decadal PDSI variations are compared with 11-, 22- and 45-year cycles of the solar activity, extracted from the sunspot and Wolf's numbers variations. Linear regression models and correlation coefficients between the decadal drought cycles over the South-East Europe and solar activity are determined. Time series of non solar-driven PDSI variations and their trends are determined. The envisage result of this work is better understanding the decadal drought cycles, driven mostly by the solar activity and improving the knowledge about the drought trends, due to the global warming.

Key words: PDSI, decadal cycles, solar activity
2010-553 FLUORESCENCE DETECTION OF TWO MIXED DYES IN WATER SAMPLES
Liljana Kola 1, Pranvera Lazo 2
1 Centre of Nuclear and Applied Physics,niversity of Tirana, FNS, Tirana, Albania
2 Departement of Chemistry, University of Tirana, FNS, Tirana, Albania

Abstract:
The fluorescence ability of some dyes enables their using as artificial tracer in the water system studies. The problem is dealt with in relation to applying the dye to trace and determine water movements within the karstic system and underground waters. Related with the aims of the study one can inject two or more dyes in the different points of the water system. We have applied the artificial tracer experiment in water system studies for the first time in our country in the karstic system study of Mali me Gropa on 2002, where we injected four artificial tracers in four different places of the system, in the same time. One can detect the maxima of the fluorescence of each tracer in water samples separating them from each other. The separation of the fluorescent dyes from each other needs the chemical supplementary treatments. In this paper only spectral separation of fluorescent dyes in binary mixtures and treatments based on pH-variations are described. The concentration and synchronous scan methods were used for the measurement of the Uranine, Eosine and Rhodamine WT fluorescence by the means of a Perkin Elmer LS 55 Luminescence Spectrometer. These results help us to decide which dyes can be used together in the same water system study. According to these results we can decide how to detect the maxima of their fluorescence in water samples, too.

Key words: Spectral Determination, Uranine, Fluorescence Intensity (IF), synchronous scan, artificial tracer

2010-572 INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ON SELECTED COMPONENTS
OF WATER BALANCE IN HORNA NITRA AREA, SLOVAKIA
Andrej Machlica 1, Oliver Horvat 2
1 Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Hydrogeology, Slovakia
2 Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovakia

Abstract:
The research was focused on analysis of meteorological drought influence on groundwater runoff and storage formation. Two different models - conceptual model of water balance BILAN and physically-based rainfall – runoff model FRIER with distributed parameters were used. Both models work in daily time step. At first, meteorological drought parameters and occurrence were analyzed using classification based on yearly precipitation amounts and SPI index. Consequently, years with the highest drought intensity were selected. Hydrological balance elements in those years were analysed in more details using both models. Several methods of model input parameters modification were used; a common methodology for input data modification was developed. Special attention was paid to precipitation because of their significant effect in the modelling process. Areal precipitation was estimated by several methods, like kriging, Thiessen polygons, altitude gradient and arithmetic mean. Similar detailed analysis was done for estimation of potential and real evapotranspiration, using different methods and formulas. The results of best model simulations were compared with the groundwater level development in monitoring wells of the adjacent area in dry years. Propagation of meteorological drought through the hydrological cycle and its effect on groundwater runoff and storage formation in the Horna Nitra basin (Slovakia) was described. The main issue of the work was to contribute to the improvement of knowledge on hydrological cycle processes.

Key words: meteorological drought, groundwater runoff, hydrological modelling
2010-593 DROUGHT MONITORING IN NORTHERN NIGERIA USING REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGY
Fidelis Chinazor Okorie 1, Ifeyinwa  Christabel Okeke 2, Christain Nnamdi Chibo 3, John Didacus  Njoku 4
1 Imo State University Owerri, Nigeria
2 University of Lagos, Nigeria
3 Imo State University Owerri, Nigeria
4 Federal University Of Technology Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria

Abstract:
Drought episode has become a common phenomenon in the sub-Saharan Africa which the North western region of Nigeria is part of. The reason was being the susceptibility of the entire Sahel region of Africa to climatic anomalies. Considerable public attention is being drawn to the Sahel zone of Africa since three to four decades now due to several drought experienced throughout the region. Drought, an incessant calamity, however, is difficult to prevent but the effects on humanity and other impacts on the environment can be mitigated through prediction, early warning and other management strategies. The AVHRR (Advanced Very high resolution radiometer ) data have been explored for monitoring vegetation and NDVI (Normalized difference vegetation index) data being generated for the whole Africa, so also the installation of ARTEMIS (Africa real time environmental monitoring using imaging satellites) at the FAO remote sensing centre in 1988. Thus employing remote sensing techniques in studying drought by using normalized difference vegetation index, temperature conditions index, vegetation health index, estimated monthly rainfall and cloud conditions, from NOAA (AVHRR) and FAO (ARTEMIS) respectively make Agency) was used, as well as vegetation health index and vegetation index data from NOAA and FAO, for 1985- 2002 AND 1982-1999 respectively. The Findings based on the ground truth data reveals many years of drought incidence. Also vegetation health index data of July 1985-2002 and vegetation index data of 1982-1999 detects several years of drought condition in the study area of 6 states. Though, the study established that Northwestern region of Nigeria is a disaster prone area with particular reference to drought, the paper still makes some possible suggestions towards reducing the effects of the disaster on humanity.
2010-602 RISK TO WATER ECOSYSTEMS IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS AND ITS POSSIBLE MANAGEMENT
Alexander Valyaev 1, Dmitrie Nikolsky 1, Anna Valyaeva 2, Erochin Sergey 3, Tuzova Tamara 3
1 Nuclear Safety Institute  of Russian Academy of Sciences, Kyrgyzstan Republic
2 State University, Tambov, Russia
3 Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Energy of National Academy Sciences, Bishkek,Kyrgyzstan Republic


Abstract:
Water objects (WO) play significant role in any country. Pollution caused by manmade activity exacerbate situation with WO. Collapse of former USSR resulted in insufficient or lacking WO monitoring in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. The monitoring was especially problematic in mountain regions and across borders of former USSR republics.
Preservation, safety and correct use of WO is most actual and urgent because [1]:  
1.Many WO are located in mountainous seismically active and densely populated regions These regions have high risks of natural and manmade catastrophes such as earthquakes, landslips, mudflows and others. As a result of such catastrophes, some WO can disappear resulting in reduction of water reservoirs and in WO pollution;
2.Lack of water sources, hot climate and drought increase water consumption;
3.WO management and WO safety is difficult to maintain because of heavily complex architecture of high water dams and huge artificial reservoirs, and significant drifts in rivers. In addition, pressure from water mass in artificial reservoirs can stress an earth crust increasing the probability of earthquakes;
4.Nuclear power plants, their heat sinks and rocket fuel tanks are often located near WO.  Such nuclear objects can be the subject of terrorist attacks, that may lead to ecological catastrophes. Weakly guarded borders of Chechnya, Afghanistan and other zones of frozen conflicts can further stimulate insurgency in close proximity to WO.   Possible terrorist attacks can result in global pollution of river's basins in Caspian, Black, Kara Seas, and consequently in the World Ocean.
Because our generation has faced with a growing threat of global pollution, countries have to coordinate efforts to save the environment. Some our experimental and theoretical studies,  concerned with risk assessment, catastrophe prediction and prevention of natural and industrial WO are presented in [2,3] and  our international projects entitled 1."Assessment of damages from the dams' destruction of hydro systems of Caucasus Kura River"; 2.ISTC Project: "Assessing and decreasing risks of damages, caused by Tien–Shan mountain lakes outbursts".

1. A.N. Valyaev et. al . "Assessments of Risks and Possible Ecological and Economic Damages from Large-Scale Natural and Man-Induced Catastrophes in Ecology-Hazard Regions of Central Asia and the Caucasus."  in NATO Science for Peace and Security Series (NSPSS) -C: Environmental Security,  Proc. of NATO ARW  "Prevention, Detection and Response to Nuclear and Radiological Threat", May 2-7, 2007  Yerevan, Armenia, Editors: S. Apikyan. Publ. House:   Springer,   Netherlands, 2008,  pp. 281-299.         This  article in  NSPSS NATO ARW:  "Nuclear Risk in Central Asia", June 20-22,  2006, Kazakhstan, Almaty,  Editors: B. Salbu, Publ. House:   Springer, Netherlands, 2008,    pp. 133-149.  
2.A.N. Valyaev, S.A. Erochin, T.V. Tusova, " Assessments and decreasing of risks and damages from outbursts of Tien-Shan high mountains lakes" in Book:"Uranium, Mining and Hydrogeology" Published House: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 819-826.
3.A.N. Valyaev, S.A. Erochin, T.V. Tusova "Processes under outbursts of mountain lakes and model for risk assessment" in Book: "Proceedings CHAOS2008 Editor: H. Skiadas, Published House: World Scientific, 2009, pp. 350-363.

2010-604 PROPOSAL OF EVALUATION CRITERIA FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS IN DROUGHT SITUATIONS
Domingo Baeza Sanz 1, Patricia Novo 2
1 Departamento de Ecologica, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Spain
2 Ecohidraulica, Spain

Abstract:
Following a proposal by the of Spanish Environment Ministry (Spanish Environmental Ministry, 2007) in environmental flow studies it is recommended to use Habitat Simulation methods (Bovee, K. 1986). One of the difficulties that these methods present is the form to choose the commitment minimum point, within the curve that relates flow versus created habitat, WUA-Q curved, that generates the compatible minimum habitat that integrated the proposed environmental objective for the river; consequently this election will determine a minimum flow that it is the one that will be proposed as conservation assessment in that section. The Instruction of Planning text (Hydrological Regulation Schedule) (RPH) (R.D. 907/2007) which has been developed in our country, have the proposal to unify criteria for that minimum point election, in particular for this methodology supposes to choose a flow, that produces a fixed percentage of the maximum WUA obtained in the study of that section. For extreme drought situations the proposed percentage has been reduced and it is considered sufficient with the flow that produces 25% of the maximum WUA. Given the generalist character of this instruction, that does not consider the different answers that can take place in the diverse channels, sections and morphologies on which the work take place, we consider necessary to evaluate the hydrologic and ecological meaning of those flows generated with the management criterion for drought situation. The proposal analysis is to state the presence in the river segment a sufficient water level to allow the continuity of the flow and the fish movements. The simulation programs are used, where the calculation are made with the flow that provides 25% of the maximum WUA, the criterion to approve or to reject that flow is to observe if a continuous lamina of at least 20 cm of depth are present, that we create are sufficient for fish passage (García de Jalón et al , 1997). This work has been carried out in some rivers sections of Ebro and Segura watershed in the East of Spain.

Key words: Drought , environmental flow, habitat simulation
2010-619 DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD CYBEROBSERVATORY
FOR SUPPORTING SCIENCE MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC WARNING
Marian Muste 1, Radu Drobot 2, Mariana Mocanu 3
1 University of Iowa, USA
2 Technical University of Civil Engineering from Bucharest, Romania
3 Poliyechnica Univewrsity of Bucharest, Romania

Abstract:
The paper reviews first the emerging frameworks for watershed science and management. Reference is made to the recent advances in cyber-tools and methods (sensors, sensing networks, high-performance computing, communication technologies, GIS along with data and simulation models) enabling progress in these areas. A description of the flood observatory components is then provided to reveal their usage in supporting the decision-making process in water resources management. Flood risk management addresses water quantity & quality aspects, entail hillslope and in-stream processes, social and economic impact, being relevant locally and nationally. Initial steps in developing a flood Observatory are summarized with 2 case studies, in United Statesand in Romania. Finally the paper argues that, given that scientists and managers need robust information systems that have many overlapping components and functions, the time is ripe to coordinate and synergistically combine their efforts for mutual long-term benefits.

Key words: cyberinfrastructure, information systems, flood observatories, water science
2010-629 BIOPHYSICAL CRITERIA DESIGNATING AGRICULTURE DROUGHT
AFFECTED AREAS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGES
Catalin Cristian Simota 1, Mihail Dimitru 1
1 National Research-Development Institute for Soil Science Agrochemistry and Environment, Romania

Abstract:
Water related biophysical indicators used today for the designation of less favoured areas for agriculture at European scale (e.g. growing days defined as the number of days with temperatures over 5 and ratio between actual soil available water and potential evapotranspiration over 0.5, various aridity indexes: Bagnouls-Gaussen, UNESCO) are evaluated at European scale using a crop water balance simulation model (ROIMPEL) linked with soil database 1:1,000,000 and climate data for 1961-1990 baseline and 2020-2040 projections (ECHAM4, HADCM3). Each biophysical indicator shows various trends in space and time that impose a harmonisation for defining clear agriculture policies for drought management.

Key words: drought, less favoured ares for agriculture
2010-642 USE OF IRRIGATION SCHEDULING REGIME AS DROUGHT INDICATOR
Milena Kercheva 1, Zornitsa Popova 1
1 Institute of soil science, Bulgaria

Abstract:
The impact of droughts on agricultural crops depends mainly on net precipitation distribution during the vegetation period and soil physical properties. Most of drought indices do not reflect the complicate interaction between current climate conditions, soil properties and crop water demands. This study compares the identification of summer drought by some wide-spread drought indices (seasonal net precipitation, duration and distribution of rainless periods, SPI, PDSI and simplified water balance) and by irrigation scheduling regime of maize. The case study is conducted using long-term records of climate data for Sofia region and simulation of irrigation scheduling of maize grown on two soils with contrastive properties: low water permeable Vertisol and medium water permeable Chromic Luvisol. Two scenarios with different irrigation alternatives were performed using CROPWAT program (Smith, 1992): (1) refilling the soil reservoir and adopting a management-allowed depletion fraction (MAD) in respect to crop development stage; (2) use of constant irrigation depth for partially refilling the soil reservoir. For the very dry year all irrigation alternatives behave similarly on both soil types. For less and medium drought conditions the irrigation scheduling is more sensitive to soil properties which is reflected by the changes in number, initial data of irrigation depth and the amount of irrigation requirements. The statistical analyses of the study period indicate that there are some deviations in the estimates given by climate indices and by the net irrigation requirements. Taking into account the practical use of the results it is recommended to include the probability of exceedance of net irrigation requirements as additional indicator for summer drought and as a basis for assessment the informativity of the other indices.

Key words: drought assessment, irrigation scheduling, maize
2010-660 FLOOD FORECAST AND WEATHER RADAR
Aleksandar Karanfilovski 1
1 Hydrometeorological Service, Macedonia

Abstract:
Flooding is of universal concern and interest. It is one of the most dramatic interaction between man and his environment, emphasising both the sheer force of natural events and man's inadequate efforts to control them. The ability to provide sufficient advance warning of flood occurrence is important in reducing the potentially disastrous effect of flooding. It may, for example, save lives by giving floodplain residents time to remove themselves and their possessions to safety, and it may save property by allowing time to effect various structural and other adjustments. Flood flow forecasting for a catchment due to rainfall requires a quantitative estimate of precipitation. This can be accomplished using several methods including raingages, weather radar or a combination of raingages and weather radar. The traditional approach to flood forecasting is to use rainfall input estimated from a number of raingages. The recent advance of new technologies such as weather radar, satellites, GIS and high speed computer workstation provides new opportunities for hydrological forecasts improving. Basic advantages of radar (as instrument for surveillance and measurements at distance) are the providing with information in real time (with frequency up to 5 min.), large observation space and high spatial resolution. Quantitative real-time rainfall measurements utilising weather radar provide opportunities for real-time flood forecasting. Rain production is connected with: vertical and horizontal clouds dimensions, life cycles, cloud water vapour amount, thermodynamical and microphysical processes. Some characteristic cloud formations and theirs radar signature important for flood forecasting are presented in this paper.

Key words: radar, flood, forecasting